Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-11-07?

26 of 39 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $137K held · ended Nov 7

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$137.2K

Combined PnL

-$187.85

Smart Money Entry

95.5¢ → 96.2¢

+1% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

26 of 39 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No26 traders

Total Value$129.4K

Total Shares131,650

Combined PnL+$733.13

Yes13 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares70,786

Combined PnL-$920.98

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

97h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 94.2¢	$21.2K	$21.6K	+$388.43	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 96.5¢	$14.9K	$14.9K	-$61.31	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.3¢	$13.1K	$13.2K	+$143.21	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 94.5¢	$11.5K	$11.6K	+$97.85	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
RN1	Noavg 94.7¢	$9.1K	$9.4K	+$216.13	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
LI Limousin	Noavg 97.7¢	$8.7K	$8.5K	-$152.92	50% 1850-1866 (3716)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 96¢	$7.1K	$7.0K	-$22.64	48% 7452-7984 (15436)
NM NM-P	Noavg 96¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	+$3.98	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-P	Noavg 96¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$3.93	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 95.3¢	$9.5K	$5.6K	+$50.03	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Noavg 96¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	+$10.61	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$98.08	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
└ No leg	Noavg 95.6¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$21.74
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3.5¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$76.34
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.3¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$57.17	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 94.8¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$1.82	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 96.1¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	+$2.18	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 96.3¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$1.98	67% 2812-1387 (4199)
CA Cannae	Noavg 95.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$1.43	53% 16963-15085 (32048)
0X 0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR	Yesavg 5.7¢	$2.3K	$1.5K	-$781.96	38% 529-876 (1405)
oieshfn345	Noavg 93.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$23.64	58% 2117-1562 (3679)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Noavg 94.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$34.03	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 91¢	$810.28	$856.18	+$45.9	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
PA pauleta23	Noavg 97.5¢	$600	$592.13	-$7.87	65% 24597-12971 (37568)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 96.3¢	$499.89	$499.58	-$0.31	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
PA Pan9X	Noavg 95¢	$3.7K	$453.01	+$6.38	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$361.95	$358.42	-$3.53	49% 15008-15929 (30937)
└ No leg	Noavg 94.6¢	$197.58	$200.96	+$3.38
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 4¢	$164.38	$157.46	-$6.91

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$21,220.94

Value

$21.6K

PnL

+$388.43

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

LightParadox

Invested

$14,931.48

Value

$14.9K

PnL

-$61.31

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

SnakeBall

Invested

$13,099.3

Value

$13.2K

PnL

+$143.21

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

Flaznorp

Invested

$11,527.48

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$97.85

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

RN1

Invested

$9,142.64

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$216.13

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Limousin

Invested

$8,670.67

Value

$8.5K

PnL

-$152.92

Record

50%

1850-1866 (3716)

Oddstorm

Invested

$7,076.46

Value

$7.0K

PnL

-$22.64

Record

48%

7452-7984 (15436)

NM-P

Invested

$6,209.39

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$3.98

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-P

Invested

$5,605.41

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$3.93

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

38791873984189

Invested

$9,514.68

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$50.03

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$5,094.87

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$10.61

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

VenusianARB<$100

Invested

$4,727.07

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$98.08

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

Both legs:

No$3,646.7595.6¢+$21.74

Yes$1,080.323.5¢+$76.34

MadridTime

Invested

$4,152.13

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$57.17

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$3,225.33

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.82

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$3,124.13

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$2.18

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,887.96

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$1.98

Record

67%

2812-1387 (4199)

Cannae

Invested

$2,136.42

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.43

Record

53%

16963-15085 (32048)

0x0f3433d8b7596000bf1046aa822308d93cf67684CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,325.92

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$781.96

Record

38%

529-876 (1405)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,320.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$23.64

Record

58%

2117-1562 (3679)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$1,002.33

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$34.03

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

cigarettes

Invested

$810.28

Value

$856.18

PnL

+$45.9

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

pauleta23

Invested

$600

Value

$592.13

PnL

-$7.87

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$499.89

Value

$499.58

PnL

-$0.31

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

Pan9X

Invested

$3,713.39

Value

$453.01

PnL

+$6.38

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Invested

$361.95

Value

$358.42

PnL

-$3.53

Record

49%

15008-15929 (30937)

Both legs:

No$197.5894.6¢+$3.38

Yes$164.384¢-$6.91

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

26 of 39 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 36%

Freshness

Late

97h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

59% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 36% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 73% · 11

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 57% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.