Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by March 31, 2027?

25 of 51 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (49%) · Yes at 82¢ · $162K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes82¢No18¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 49%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$162.1K

Combined PnL

$-23.9K

Smart Money Entry

82.1¢ → 81.5¢

-1% since entry · 25 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

25 of 51 top traders (49%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes82%

No19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes25 traders

Total Value$141.3K

Total Shares166,488

Combined PnL+$6.0K

No26 traders

Total Value$17.7K

Total Shares123,154

Combined PnL$-29.9K

Yes — 49%No — 51%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (44 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperYes 73% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 52% · 44

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BA bands1	Yesavg 79.2¢	$33.4K	$36.3K	+$2.9K	51% 339-332 (671)
ImJustKen	Yesavg 89.9¢	$36.2K	$32.8K	$-3.4K	0% 0-289 (289)
Kettle	Yesavg 90¢	$13.5K	$12.9K	-$600	— 0-13 (13)
TY Tyatsmr	Yesavg 76.6¢	$8.0K	$9.0K	+$981.57	—
Michael-The-Taxiarch	Yesavg 87.3¢	$9.2K	$8.6K	-$186.25	—
kittycat123	Yesavg 39.2¢	$3.9K	$8.5K	+$4.6K	—
0X 0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92	Yesavg 83.9¢	$7.3K	$7.6K	+$223.17	—
pIebe	Yesavg 91.2¢	$7.0K	$6.6K	-$399.83	— 3-4 (7)
CO Contestable-Parfait	Yesavg 86.4¢	$7.9K	$5.6K	+$83.45	45% 133-163 (296)
25 254321758CTR	Noavg 73.2¢	$25.1K	$4.8K	$-20.3K	68% 502-236 (738)
DE deltasniperCTR	Noavg 33¢	$9.9K	$4.2K	$-5.7K	—
StupidMonkeyyyARB<$100	Yesavg 82.8¢	$5.8K	$3.2K	$-1.2K	— 5-4 (9)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 82.8¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$101.8
└ No leg	Noavg 43.9¢	$1.9K	$808.88	$-1.1K
JJo	Yesavg 85¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$82.74	— 4-8 (12)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR	Noavg 7.5¢	$993.12	$1.9K	+$860.7	—
GD Gdub	Yesavg 85.9¢	$2.7K	$1.7K	-$549.92	— 0-5 (5)
classified	Yesavg 89.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$64.32	66% 620-318 (938)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 91¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$72.55	69% 2600-1194 (3794)
machinelearned	Yesavg 92¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$80.73	41% 615-871 (1486)
LolakisCTR	Noavg 24.5¢	$10.3K	$1.1K	+$1.6K	3% 1-31 (32)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495	Yesavg 68.2¢	$953.2	$1.1K	+$231.32	41% 13-19 (32)
aenews2	Yesavg 92¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$69.9	0% 0-127 (127)
LE leegunner	Yesavg 78.1¢	$5.6K	$986.58	+$566.08	— 1-0 (1)
HoshinoAI	Yesavg 66.3¢	$7.2K	$810.59	-$130.27	42% 13-18 (31)
Mr-KrabsCTR	Noavg 69.9¢	$3.8K	$770	$-3.1K	—
SteveTheFishCTR	Noavg 38.2¢	$2.1K	$767.22	$-1.3K	—

bands1

Yes

Invested

$33,435.42

Value

$36.3K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

51%

339-332 (671)

ImJustKen

Yes

Invested

$36,169.06

Value

$32.8K

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

0-289 (289)

Kettle

Yes

Invested

$13,499.99

Value

$12.9K

PnL

-$600

Record

—

0-13 (13)

Tyatsmr

Yes

Invested

$8,044.55

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$981.57

Record

—

Michael-The-Taxiarch

Yes

Invested

$9,199.36

Value

$8.6K

PnL

-$186.25

Record

—

kittycat123

Yes

Invested

$3,863.11

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

—

0x2a5ffc44aeb0aa4d1cdf41df7e6be60ed4476c92

Yes

Invested

$7,334.45

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$223.17

Record

—

pIebe

Yes

Invested

$7,028.51

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$399.83

Record

—

3-4 (7)

Contestable-Parfait

Yes

Invested

$7,922.29

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$83.45

Record

45%

133-163 (296)

254321758CTR

Invested

$25,114.68

Value

$4.8K

PnL

$-20.3K

Record

68%

502-236 (738)

deltasniperCTR

Invested

$9,898.39

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

—

StupidMonkeyyyARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$5,817.15

Value

$3.2K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

—

5-4 (9)

Both legs:

Yes$2,398.782.8¢-$101.8

No$1,920.9543.9¢$-1.1K

JJo

Yes

Invested

$2,009.4

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$82.74

Record

—

4-8 (12)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR

Invested

$993.12

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$860.7

Record

—

Gdub

Yes

Invested

$2,746.42

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$549.92

Record

—

0-5 (5)

classified

Yes

Invested

$1,621.37

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$64.32

Record

66%

620-318 (938)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$1,322.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$72.55

Record

69%

2600-1194 (3794)

machinelearned

Yes

Invested

$1,237.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$80.73

Record

41%

615-871 (1486)

LolakisCTR

Invested

$10,344.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

1-31 (32)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495

Yes

Invested

$953.2

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$231.32

Record

41%

13-19 (32)

aenews2

Yes

Invested

$1,071.78

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$69.9

Record

0-127 (127)

leegunner

Yes

Invested

$5,565.75

Value

$986.58

PnL

+$566.08

Record

—

1-0 (1)

HoshinoAI

Yes

Invested

$7,179.26

Value

$810.59

PnL

-$130.27

Record

42%

13-18 (31)

Mr-KrabsCTR

Invested

$3,845

Value

$770

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

—

SteveTheFishCTR

Invested

$2,096.13

Value

$767.22

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralYes at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

25 of 51 top traders (49%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed26 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Late

56h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on No) and the top 1000 (44 on Yes) disagree here.

sharpNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sniperYes 73% · 11

Aligned

ctrNo 65% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 52% · 44

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.