Will Athletic Club vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 79¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 1

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.0K

Combined PnL

-$113.05

Smart Money Entry

78.4¢ → 78.5¢

+0% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$8.6K

Total Shares10,869

Combined PnL-$115.78

Yes6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares9,093

Combined PnL+$2.73

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 77.8¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$102.44	55% 3014-2443 (5457)
RN1	Noavg 82¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$0	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 76¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$19.33	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 21.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$41.7	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 26¢	$432.19	$426.36	+$16.09	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
BI BillBenter2026CTR	Yesavg 23.9¢	$389.68	$418.86	+$29.18	58% 18786-13851 (32637)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 75.4¢	$290.22	$287.7	-$2.52	52% 13935-12713 (26648)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.4¢	$186.57	$194.33	+$7.75
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.9¢	$103.65	$93.38	-$10.27
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 77¢	$178.17	$175.85	-$2.31	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
MI MinevaJ	Noavg 72.8¢	$151	$158.71	+$7.71	57% 1056-790 (1846)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 78.7¢	$69.52	$70.22	+$0.7	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
AN AnonymousUsername<$100	Noavg 73¢	$65.29	$65.29	-$0	72% 6833-2629 (9462)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 74.3¢	$54.94	$56.95	+$2.01	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74¢	$47.86	$47.22	-$0.65	56% 14257-11059 (25316)
0010001000001100<$100	Noavg 79¢	$43.65	$27.07	-$1.72	65% 1371-739 (2110)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Noavg 80¢	$8	$7.95	-$0.05	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$6.66	$6.77	+$0.11	48% 1070-1175 (2245)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 77.6¢	$4.81	$5.11	+$0.3	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$4.68	$3.69	-$0.99	61% 13796-8679 (22475)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$2	$2.05	+$0.05	49% 13032-13607 (26639)

Anon455

Invested

$3,442.79

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$102.44

Record

55%

3014-2443 (5457)

RN1

Invested

$2,560.86

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,148.88

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$19.33

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,286.96

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$41.7

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$432.19

Value

$426.36

PnL

+$16.09

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

BillBenter2026CTR

Yes

Invested

$389.68

Value

$418.86

PnL

+$29.18

Record

58%

18786-13851 (32637)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$290.22

Value

$287.7

PnL

-$2.52

Record

52%

13935-12713 (26648)

Both legs:

No$186.5775.4¢+$7.75

Yes$103.6523.9¢-$10.27

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$178.17

Value

$175.85

PnL

-$2.31

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

MinevaJ

Invested

$151

Value

$158.71

PnL

+$7.71

Record

57%

1056-790 (1846)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$69.52

Value

$70.22

PnL

+$0.7

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

AnonymousUsername<$100

Invested

$65.29

Value

$65.29

PnL

-$0

Record

72%

6833-2629 (9462)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$54.94

Value

$56.95

PnL

+$2.01

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.86

Value

$47.22

PnL

-$0.65

Record

56%

14257-11059 (25316)

0010001000001100<$100

Invested

$43.65

Value

$27.07

PnL

-$1.72

Record

65%

1371-739 (2110)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Invested

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$0.05

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.66

Value

$6.77

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

1070-1175 (2245)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.3

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.68

Value

$3.69

PnL

-$0.99

Record

61%

13796-8679 (22475)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.