Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 14 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-11-08?

14 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 50¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 9

Yes51¢No49¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.9K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

47.4¢ → 49.5¢

+5% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 28 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes51%

No50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares26,707

Combined PnL+$3.1K

No14 traders

Total Value$13.3K

Total Shares29,636

Combined PnL-$738.68

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Yesavg 50.4¢	$8.8K	$11.6K	+$2.8K	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 50.1¢	$7.0K	$6.3K	-$206.43	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$7.9K	$6.0K	$-1.9K	52% 47368-44608 (91976)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.6¢	$7.0K	$4.7K	$-2.3K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 46.5¢	$903.21	$1.3K	+$389.62
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540CTR	Noavg 38.4¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$353.16	82% 2718-602 (3320)
OM omnibus-076daa	Yesavg 46.2¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$199.33	50% 23496-23498 (46994)
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$20.23	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$35.23
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$500	$515	+$15
0X 0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR	Noavg 50¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$61.53	39% 446-704 (1150)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 49.7¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$25.29	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$36.54
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$375	$386.25	+$11.25
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 49.6¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$204.01	50% 32582-32710 (65292)
└ No leg	Noavg 49.6¢	$1.4K	$923.89	-$444.27
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$674.08	$914.34	+$240.26
alpheclabs2	Yesavg 64¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$20.67	47% 1640-1847 (3487)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 50.8¢	$808.06	$787.23	-$20.84	50% 27970-27422 (55392)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$871	$747.92	-$123.09	47% 2148-2414 (4562)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 64¢	$455.78	$473.58	+$17.8
└ No leg	Noavg 50.7¢	$415.23	$274.34	-$140.89
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 50.3¢	$604	$588	-$16	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 64¢	$578.84	$585.02	+$6.18	47% 2189-2445 (4634)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 49.5¢	$502.27	$532.85	+$30.58	46% 30580-35679 (66259)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 55¢	$597.8	$523.89	+$68.55	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
PT PT-S7	Yesavg 54.1¢	$223.88	$213.11	-$10.76	46% 3489-4043 (7532)
RN1CTR	Noavg 51¢	$216.03	$207.56	-$8.47	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 52¢	$208	$206	-$2	50% 2217-2191 (4408)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Yesavg 63¢	$127.89	$135	+$7.11	53% 3778-3377 (7155)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 52.2¢	$180.86	$116.04	-$64.82	49% 2223-2352 (4575)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Yesavg 55.4¢	$79.88	$91.62	+$11.75	53% 15513-13750 (29263)
tradecraftCTR	Noavg 48.8¢	$109.76	$75.31	-$34.45	51% 6692-6432 (13124)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$70.54	$71.49	+$0.94	47% 2157-2403 (4560)
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$59.78	$60.39	+$0.61	47% 150-169 (319)

nigiri99

Yes

Invested

$8,784.64

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$7,047.89

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$206.43

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$7,911.8

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

52%

47368-44608 (91976)

Both legs:

No$7,008.5949.6¢$-2.3K

Yes$903.2146.5¢+$389.62

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540CTR

Invested

$2,746.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$353.16

Record

82%

2718-602 (3320)

omnibus-076daa

Yes

Invested

$2,132.76

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$199.33

Record

50%

23496-23498 (46994)

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$2,110.37

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$20.23

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

Both legs:

No$1,610.3749.6¢-$35.23

Yes$50050¢+$15

0x1B8FfDb4FF99B4622F099465C486E4F75751cca7-1779298477893CTR

Invested

$2,051.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$61.53

Record

39%

446-704 (1150)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,914.54

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$25.29

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

Both legs:

No$1,539.5449.7¢-$36.54

Yes$37550¢+$11.25

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$2,042.24

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$204.01

Record

50%

32582-32710 (65292)

Both legs:

No$1,368.1649.6¢-$444.27

Yes$674.0849¢+$240.26

alpheclabs2

Yes

Invested

$1,322.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$20.67

Record

47%

1640-1847 (3487)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$808.06

Value

$787.23

PnL

-$20.84

Record

50%

27970-27422 (55392)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$871

Value

$747.92

PnL

-$123.09

Record

47%

2148-2414 (4562)

Both legs:

Yes$455.7864¢+$17.8

No$415.2350.7¢-$140.89

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$604

Value

$588

PnL

-$16

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$578.84

Value

$585.02

PnL

+$6.18

Record

47%

2189-2445 (4634)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$502.27

Value

$532.85

PnL

+$30.58

Record

46%

30580-35679 (66259)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$597.8

Value

$523.89

PnL

+$68.55

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

PT-S7

Yes

Invested

$223.88

Value

$213.11

PnL

-$10.76

Record

46%

3489-4043 (7532)

RN1CTR

Invested

$216.03

Value

$207.56

PnL

-$8.47

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$208

Value

$206

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

2217-2191 (4408)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Yes

Invested

$127.89

Value

$135

PnL

+$7.11

Record

53%

3778-3377 (7155)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$180.86

Value

$116.04

PnL

-$64.82

Record

49%

2223-2352 (4575)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.88

Value

$91.62

PnL

+$11.75

Record

53%

15513-13750 (29263)

tradecraftCTR

Invested

$109.76

Value

$75.31

PnL

-$34.45

Record

51%

6692-6432 (13124)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$70.54

Value

$71.49

PnL

+$0.94

Record

47%

2157-2403 (4560)

biying99999CTR<$100

Invested

$59.78

Value

$60.39

PnL

+$0.61

Record

47%

150-169 (319)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 28 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.