Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Nuggets (66%). 20 of 27 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Rockets (-9.5)

20 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (74%) · Rockets at 35¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 10

Rockets35¢Nuggets65¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 74%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$31.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.6K

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 34.5¢

-25% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

20 of 27 top traders (74%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 66%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets35%

Nuggets66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets7 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares22,853

Combined PnL+$959.56

Rockets20 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares39,983

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Nuggets — 26%Rockets — 74%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (26 on Rockets) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 81% · 26

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Nuggetsavg 62.8¢	$5.5K	$5.8K	+$329.17	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Nuggetsavg 52¢	$4.4K	$4.4K	+$34.79	—
VeryLucky888	Nuggetsavg 55.9¢	$3.3K	$3.6K	+$407.67	—
nehcnehcCTR	Rocketsavg 48¢	$4.7K	$3.6K	$-1.1K	—
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Rocketsavg 45.6¢	$4.7K	$3.5K	$-1.2K	—
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$588.8	—
HI hi774cCTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$529.96	—
FU Fujimi888	Nuggetsavg 52¢	$878.9	$1.1K	+$194.37	—
NM NM-PARB<$100	Rocketsavg 46.1¢	$988.75	$819	-$218.75	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 46.1¢	$806.75	$586.25	-$220.5
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 52¢	$182	$232.75	+$1.75
IA ianf2026CTR	Rocketsavg 48¢	$1.0K	$766.5	-$241.5	—
GC GC-PARB<$100	Rocketsavg 45.9¢	$850.27	$735.68	-$170.73	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 45.9¢	$642.25	$469	-$173.25
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 51.9¢	$208.02	$266.68	+$2.52
GA GaditimaCTR	Rocketsavg 44¢	$880	$670	-$210	—
FO forecastication4CTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$788.4	$586.92	-$201.48	—
RN1ARB<$100	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$525	$500	-$25	—
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 59¢	$295	$332.5	+$37.5
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 46¢	$230	$167.5	-$62.5
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$532.35	$396.31	-$136.05	—
alpheclabs2CTR	Rocketsavg 44¢	$510.4	$388.6	-$121.8	—
LI LimousinCTR	Rocketsavg 45¢	$490.95	$376.4	-$114.56	—
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Rocketsavg 45.1¢	$778.35	$209.98	-$148.11	—
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 45.1¢	$141.53	$105.05	-$172.02
└ Nuggets leg	Nuggetsavg 51.3¢	$81.03	$104.94	+$23.91
PU purplegatto	Nuggetsavg 67¢	$168.84	$167.58	-$1.26	—
PA Pan9X	Nuggetsavg 61.7¢	$166.55	$142.84	-$5.05	—
FL FlaznorpCTR	Rocketsavg 47¢	$176.87	$126.16	-$50.71	—
BI biying99999CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 45¢	$59.4	$44.22	-$15.18	—
AU auros2CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 45¢	$49.2	$40.13	-$9.07	—
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 44¢	$44	$33.5	-$10.5	—
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 47¢	$40.42	$28.81	-$11.61	—

nigiri99

Nuggets

Invested

$5,519.83

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$329.17

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Nuggets

Invested

$4,382.13

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$34.79

Record

—

VeryLucky888

Nuggets

Invested

$3,325.01

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$407.67

Record

—

nehcnehcCTR

Rockets

Invested

$4,730.36

Value

$3.6K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

—

HomeRunHazardCTR

Rockets

Invested

$4,713.04

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

—

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,304

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$588.8

Record

—

hi774cCTR

Rockets

Invested

$2,073.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$529.96

Record

—

Fujimi888

Nuggets

Invested

$878.9

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$194.37

Record

—

NM-PARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$988.75

Value

$819

PnL

-$218.75

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$806.7546.1¢-$220.5

Nuggets$18252¢+$1.75

ianf2026CTR

Rockets

Invested

$1,007.99

Value

$766.5

PnL

-$241.5

Record

—

GC-PARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$850.27

Value

$735.68

PnL

-$170.73

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$642.2545.9¢-$173.25

Nuggets$208.0251.9¢+$2.52

GaditimaCTR

Rockets

Invested

$880

Value

$670

PnL

-$210

Record

—

forecastication4CTR

Rockets

Invested

$788.4

Value

$586.92

PnL

-$201.48

Record

—

RN1ARB<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$525

Value

$500

PnL

-$25

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$532.35

Value

$396.31

PnL

-$136.05

Record

—

alpheclabs2CTR

Rockets

Invested

$510.4

Value

$388.6

PnL

-$121.8

Record

—

LimousinCTR

Rockets

Invested

$490.95

Value

$376.4

PnL

-$114.56

Record

—

38791873984189ARB<$100

Rockets

Invested

$778.35

Value

$209.98

PnL

-$148.11

Record

—

Both legs:

Rockets$141.5345.1¢-$172.02

Nuggets$81.0351.3¢+$23.91

purplegatto

Nuggets

Invested

$168.84

Value

$167.58

PnL

-$1.26

Record

—

Pan9X

Nuggets

Invested

$166.55

Value

$142.84

PnL

-$5.05

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR

Rockets

Invested

$176.87

Value

$126.16

PnL

-$50.71

Record

—

biying99999CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$59.4

Value

$44.22

PnL

-$15.18

Record

—

auros2CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$49.2

Value

$40.13

PnL

-$9.07

Record

—

cigarettesCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$44

Value

$33.5

PnL

-$10.5

Record

—

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$40.42

Value

$28.81

PnL

-$11.61

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

20 of 27 top traders (74%)Underdog side (market favors Nuggets 66%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

21 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

78% of non-arb traders are on Rockets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Nuggets) and the top 1000 (26 on Rockets) disagree here.

Hand-pickedNuggets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Rockets 81% · 26

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.