Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 224.5

10 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 61¢ · $53K held · ended Nov 11

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 43%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$53.0K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 61¢

+14% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 23 top traders (43%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over13 traders

Total Value$25.0K

Total Shares37,028

Combined PnL+$7.3K

Under10 traders

Total Value$20.3K

Total Shares44,868

Combined PnL$-5.2K

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 23

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Overavg 49¢	$14.8K	$21.7K	+$6.9K	47% 500-559 (1059)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$17.8K	$15.2K	$-2.7K	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
IA ianf2026	Underavg 64.7¢	$6.0K	$3.4K	$-2.6K	9% 8-79 (87)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 60.4¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$96.91	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Under leg	Underavg 60.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$13.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 35.6¢	$884.34	$994.59	+$110.26
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 31.7¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$631.77	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.7¢	$928.08	$1.6K	+$711.55
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.4¢	$626.92	$547.13	-$79.79
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$133.47	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$1.0K	$1.4K	+$408.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.3¢	$986.01	$710.76	-$275.25
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 48.3¢	$665.72	$833.08	+$167.36	54% 217-188 (405)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 36.1¢	$680.93	$745.79	+$64.86	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 50¢	$500	$720	+$220	49% 95-99 (194)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Overavg 32¢	$480	$592.5	+$112.5	62% 2365-1458 (3823)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$434	$446.25	+$12.25	60% 3445-2339 (5784)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$171.5	$252	+$80.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$262.5	$194.25	-$68.25
GC GC-PARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$380.79	$397.66	+$16.87	16% 68-351 (419)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$158.87	$233.43	+$74.57
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$221.92	$164.22	-$57.7
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 45¢	$368	$322.8	-$45.2	27% 63-170 (233)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 50¢	$200	$288	+$88	10% 89-787 (876)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 48.5¢	$324.1	$263.89	-$60.21	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 49¢	$299.57	$226.2	-$73.36	12% 3-22 (25)
LI Limousin	Underavg 41.3¢	$133.14	$194.86	+$61.72	29% 314-785 (1099)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 59¢	$178.68	$190.94	+$12.26	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 55.3¢	$325.21	$172.77	-$100.83	48% 969-1052 (2021)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Underavg 51¢	$166.65	$120.9	-$45.75	51% 3680-3512 (7192)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 46.3¢	$130.53	$111.39	-$19.14	30% 134-317 (451)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$247.13	$80.73	-$12.69	51% 330-319 (649)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$76.6	$57.84	-$17.78
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$17.8	$22.89	+$5.09
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 56¢	$56.25	$53.64	-$0.86	49% 450-474 (924)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$32	$39.5	+$7.5	53% 5552-4939 (10491)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 49¢	$39.54	$29.85	-$9.68	35% 266-490 (756)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Over

Invested

$14,787

Value

$21.7K

PnL

+$6.9K

Record

47%

500-559 (1059)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$17,844.64

Value

$15.2K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

ianf2026

Under

Invested

$5,990.79

Value

$3.4K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

8-79 (87)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,389.66

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$96.91

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Under$1,491.8660.4¢-$13.35

Over$884.3435.6¢+$110.26

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,555

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$631.77

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Over$928.0831.7¢+$711.55

Under$626.9250.4¢-$79.79

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,007.15

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$133.47

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Over$1,021.1545¢+$408.72

Under$986.0151.3¢-$275.25

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$665.72

Value

$833.08

PnL

+$167.36

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$680.93

Value

$745.79

PnL

+$64.86

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$500

Value

$720

PnL

+$220

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Over

Invested

$480

Value

$592.5

PnL

+$112.5

Record

62%

2365-1458 (3823)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$434

Value

$446.25

PnL

+$12.25

Record

60%

3445-2339 (5784)

Both legs:

Over$171.549¢+$80.5

Under$262.550¢-$68.25

GC-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$380.79

Value

$397.66

PnL

+$16.87

Record

16%

68-351 (419)

Both legs:

Over$158.8749¢+$74.57

Under$221.9250¢-$57.7

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$368

Value

$322.8

PnL

-$45.2

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$288

PnL

+$88

Record

10%

89-787 (876)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$324.1

Value

$263.89

PnL

-$60.21

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$299.57

Value

$226.2

PnL

-$73.36

Record

12%

3-22 (25)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$133.14

Value

$194.86

PnL

+$61.72

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$178.68

Value

$190.94

PnL

+$12.26

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$325.21

Value

$172.77

PnL

-$100.83

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Under

Invested

$166.65

Value

$120.9

PnL

-$45.75

Record

51%

3680-3512 (7192)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$130.53

Value

$111.39

PnL

-$19.14

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$247.13

Value

$80.73

PnL

-$12.69

Record

51%

330-319 (649)

Both legs:

Invested

$56.25

Value

$53.64

PnL

-$0.86

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32

Value

$39.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

5552-4939 (10491)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$39.54

Value

$29.85

PnL

-$9.68

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 23 top traders (43%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 23

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.