Clippers vs. Suns: O/U 225.5

11 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (52%) · Under at 64¢ · $33K held · ended Nov 11

Over37¢Under63¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 52%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$32.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 63.5¢

+19% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 21 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over37%

Under64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares34,078

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Over10 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares33,830

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Under — 52%Over — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 53% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 52% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TM TMingchan	Underavg 54¢	$10.8K	$8.4K	$-2.4K	15% 6-35 (41)
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 48¢	$4.7K	$6.7K	+$2.0K	19% 13-57 (70)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46¢	$5.7K	$5.6K	-$124.7	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
PP ppku6298	Underavg 52¢	$4.6K	$3.7K	-$886.38	0% 0-96 (96)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$20.35	28% 305-773 (1078)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 49¢	$998.05	$916.98	-$81.08	28% 299-766 (1065)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 51¢	$1.1K	$878.79	-$188.31	54% 217-188 (405)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$501.46	$466.29	-$35.17	29% 307-750 (1057)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$230	$340	+$110	60% 3445-2339 (5784)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$290.77	$338.16	+$47.39	16% 68-351 (419)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$251.68	$285.02	+$33.34	49% 220-229 (449)
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$121.9	$180.2	+$58.3
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$129.78	$104.82	-$24.96
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 51.9¢	$342.01	$276.97	-$65.04	56% 504-395 (899)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 52¢	$335.48	$274.66	-$60.82	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
HI hi774c	Underavg 50¢	$311.39	$261.57	-$49.82	8% 37-423 (460)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 74.9¢	$432.63	$254.23	-$178.4	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 53.3¢	$212.96	$167.67	-$45.29	10% 89-787 (876)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 59¢	$122	$119.93	-$2.07	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 48¢	$100.84	$94.54	-$6.3	29% 314-785 (1099)
RN1<$100	Underavg 52¢	$82.96	$67.49	-$15.47	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 51.4¢	$60.26	$49.27	-$10.99	35% 266-490 (756)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Underavg 54¢	$56.07	$42.42	-$2.2	54% 401-336 (737)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.8¢	$18.1	$21.95	+$3.65
└ Under leg	Underavg 54¢	$26.32	$20.47	-$5.85
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 50¢	$10	$8.4	-$1.6	55% 120-99 (219)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$2.3	$3.4	+$1.1	26% 185-522 (707)

TMingchan

Under

Invested

$10,799.99

Value

$8.4K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

15%

6-35 (41)

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,731.36

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

19%

13-57 (70)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$5,711.68

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$124.7

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

ppku6298

Under

Invested

$4,609.17

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$886.38

Record

0-96 (96)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$3,434.02

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$20.35

Record

28%

305-773 (1078)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$998.05

Value

$916.98

PnL

-$81.08

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$1,067.1

Value

$878.79

PnL

-$188.31

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$501.46

Value

$466.29

PnL

-$35.17

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$230

Value

$340

PnL

+$110

Record

60%

3445-2339 (5784)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$290.77

Value

$338.16

PnL

+$47.39

Record

16%

68-351 (419)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$251.68

Value

$285.02

PnL

+$33.34

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

Both legs:

Over$121.946¢+$58.3

Under$129.7852¢-$24.96

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$342.01

Value

$276.97

PnL

-$65.04

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$335.48

Value

$274.66

PnL

-$60.82

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$311.39

Value

$261.57

PnL

-$49.82

Record

37-423 (460)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$432.63

Value

$254.23

PnL

-$178.4

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$212.96

Value

$167.67

PnL

-$45.29

Record

10%

89-787 (876)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$122

Value

$119.93

PnL

-$2.07

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$100.84

Value

$94.54

PnL

-$6.3

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$82.96

Value

$67.49

PnL

-$15.47

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$60.26

Value

$49.27

PnL

-$10.99

Record

35%

266-490 (756)

ghorrockARB<$100

Under

Invested

$56.07

Value

$42.42

PnL

-$2.2

Record

54%

401-336 (737)

Both legs:

Invested

$10

Value

$8.4

PnL

-$1.6

Record

55%

120-99 (219)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

$3.4

PnL

+$1.1

Record

26%

185-522 (707)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 21 top traders (52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 53% · 17

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 52% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.