Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Lakers (62%). 12 of 25 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Lakers (-11.5)

12 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (48%) · Kings at 39¢ · $42K held · ended Nov 5

Lakers62¢Kings38¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Kings

Consensus Traders

Kings 48%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$41.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 38.5¢

-23% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

AvoidKings at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

12 of 25 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Lakers62%

Kings39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kings12 traders

Total Value$20.5K

Total Shares43,477

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Lakers13 traders

Total Value$10.1K

Total Shares18,479

Combined PnL+$278.18

Kings — 48%Lakers — 52%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

48% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLakers 53% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 54% · 24

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Kingsavg 48.2¢	$10.1K	$9.8K	-$259.85	55% 6217-5101 (11318)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Kingsavg 48.2¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$71.44	54% 18102-15230 (33332)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.2¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$77.87
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 49.5¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$149.31
IA ianf2026	Lakersavg 53¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$3.39	49% 98-103 (201)
BA BabooouCTR	Kingsavg 50¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$280	51% 228-220 (448)
VI vibing123CTR	Kingsavg 51.8¢	$3.2K	$2.9K	-$291.62	51% 1620-1528 (3148)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Lakersavg 45.5¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$343.11	51% 25264-24010 (49274)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 45.5¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$257.44
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 39.8¢	$471.39	$557.06	+$85.67
Stickman22CTR	Kingsavg 50¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$140	52% 1710-1589 (3299)
73 739633786	Lakersavg 52.1¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$155.8	44% 385-485 (870)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Kingsavg 58¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	-$380.72	50% 4335-4280 (8615)
FO forecastication4	Lakersavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	-$35.94	50% 1367-1372 (2739)
AN analdesutructor	Lakersavg 49.7¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$80.98	52% 182-166 (348)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Lakersavg 51.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$72.44	63% 9246-5377 (14623)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51.1¢	$589.55	$656.99	+$67.44
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 46.6¢	$544.81	$549.81	+$5
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Kingsavg 47¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$50.9	51% 3617-3540 (7157)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 47¢	$724.38	$724.98	+$0.6
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48.3¢	$279.99	$330.29	+$50.3
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Lakersavg 51.6¢	$1.3K	$850.05	-$18.31	48% 60430-65044 (125474)
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 51.6¢	$439.41	$451.6	+$5.11
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 48.2¢	$408.69	$398.45	-$23.43
OM omnibus-076daa	Lakersavg 51.2¢	$598.23	$665.35	+$67.12	50% 21032-21299 (42331)
KingVon1	Lakersavg 55.2¢	$309.36	$319.2	-$8.4	57% 354-266 (620)
JU justaluckydude	Lakersavg 52.6¢	$197.87	$199.28	+$1.41	53% 12002-10530 (22532)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Kingsavg 47¢	$188	$188	-$0	51% 1871-1806 (3677)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Kingsavg 53.2¢	$161.49	$155.66	-$5.82	46% 1459-1718 (3177)
└ Kings leg	Kingsavg 53.2¢	$102.24	$90.24	-$12
└ Lakers leg	Lakersavg 48¢	$59.25	$65.42	+$6.17
PA Pan9XCTR	Kingsavg 48.5¢	$230.47	$117.5	-$9.35	50% 4291-4295 (8586)
GA GaditimaCTR	Kingsavg 48¢	$108.42	$106.16	-$2.26	48% 7185-7873 (15058)
AY ay118<$100	Lakersavg 52¢	$72.68	$79.67	+$7.69	42% 45-62 (107)
TA takeormake<$100	Lakersavg 54.5¢	$60.09	$61.06	+$0.97	53% 4769-4309 (9078)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Kingsavg 49¢	$49	$47	-$2	53% 23002-20232 (43234)
GH ghorrock<$100	Lakersavg 48.3¢	$23.73	$27.98	+$4.25	58% 20160-14785 (34945)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Kings

Invested

$10,078.63

Value

$9.8K

PnL

-$259.85

Record

55%

6217-5101 (11318)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$5,410.16

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$71.44

Record

54%

18102-15230 (33332)

Both legs:

Kings$3,197.1648.2¢-$77.87

Lakers$2,21349.5¢+$149.31

ianf2026

Lakers

Invested

$4,228.94

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$3.39

Record

49%

98-103 (201)

BabooouCTR

Kings

Invested

$4,000

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$280

Record

51%

228-220 (448)

vibing123CTR

Kings

Invested

$3,156.72

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$291.62

Record

51%

1620-1528 (3148)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$2,044.88

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$343.11

Record

51%

25264-24010 (49274)

Both legs:

Lakers$1,573.4945.5¢+$257.44

Kings$471.3939.8¢+$85.67

Stickman22CTR

Kings

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$140

Record

52%

1710-1589 (3299)

739633786

Lakers

Invested

$1,651.57

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$155.8

Record

44%

385-485 (870)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Kings

Invested

$2,050.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$380.72

Record

50%

4335-4280 (8615)

forecastication4

Lakers

Invested

$1,126.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$35.94

Record

50%

1367-1372 (2739)

analdesutructor

Lakers

Invested

$1,231.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$80.98

Record

52%

182-166 (348)

NM-PARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,134.36

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$72.44

Record

63%

9246-5377 (14623)

Both legs:

Lakers$589.5551.1¢+$67.44

Kings$544.8146.6¢+$5

HerdoniaARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$1,004.38

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$50.9

Record

51%

3617-3540 (7157)

Both legs:

Kings$724.3847¢+$0.6

Lakers$279.9948.3¢+$50.3

38791873984189ARB<$100

Lakers

Invested

$1,261.55

Value

$850.05

PnL

-$18.31

Record

48%

60430-65044 (125474)

Both legs:

Lakers$439.4151.6¢+$5.11

Kings$408.6948.2¢-$23.43

omnibus-076daa

Lakers

Invested

$598.23

Value

$665.35

PnL

+$67.12

Record

50%

21032-21299 (42331)

KingVon1

Lakers

Invested

$309.36

Value

$319.2

PnL

-$8.4

Record

57%

354-266 (620)

justaluckydude

Lakers

Invested

$197.87

Value

$199.28

PnL

+$1.41

Record

53%

12002-10530 (22532)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Kings

Invested

$188

Value

$188

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

1871-1806 (3677)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Kings

Invested

$161.49

Value

$155.66

PnL

-$5.82

Record

46%

1459-1718 (3177)

Both legs:

Kings$102.2453.2¢-$12

Lakers$59.2548¢+$6.17

Pan9XCTR

Kings

Invested

$230.47

Value

$117.5

PnL

-$9.35

Record

50%

4291-4295 (8586)

GaditimaCTR

Kings

Invested

$108.42

Value

$106.16

PnL

-$2.26

Record

48%

7185-7873 (15058)

ay118<$100

Lakers

Invested

$72.68

Value

$79.67

PnL

+$7.69

Record

42%

45-62 (107)

takeormake<$100

Lakers

Invested

$60.09

Value

$61.06

PnL

+$0.97

Record

53%

4769-4309 (9078)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$49

Value

$47

PnL

-$2

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

ghorrock<$100

Lakers

Invested

$23.73

Value

$27.98

PnL

+$4.25

Record

58%

20160-14785 (34945)

Research grade

AvoidKings at 39%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kings

12 of 25 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Lakers 62%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

22h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

48% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLakers 57% · 7

Diverging

sharpLakers 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrLakers 53% · 19

Diverging

Hand-pickedLakers 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Lakers 54% · 24

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.