Spread: Heat (-5.5)

9 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Heat (43%) · Heat at 61¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 11

Heat61¢Jazz39¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Heat

Consensus Traders

Heat 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

$455.62

Smart Money Entry

59.7¢ → 60.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

9 of 21 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Heat61%

Jazz40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Jazz12 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,582

Combined PnL+$195.88

Heat9 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares5,126

Combined PnL+$259.74

Jazz — 57%Heat — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99ARB<$100	Heatavg 61¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$92.14	52% 128-120 (248)
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 61¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$12.81
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 41.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$79.33
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Jazzavg 41¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$191.82	52% 2582-2418 (5000)
SU SunlineTicker	Heatavg 61¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$13.09	70% 1655-702 (2357)
HI hi774cCTR	Jazzavg 44¢	$846	$826.77	-$19.23	8% 37-422 (459)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Jazzavg 44.5¢	$531.88	$418.11	-$38.73	48% 947-1017 (1964)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 44.5¢	$260.04	$230.68	-$29.36
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 60.7¢	$188.07	$187.43	-$9.37
RO ropetard	Heatavg 55.7¢	$3.2K	$387.27	+$302.5	71% 135-55 (190)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Heatavg 58.9¢	$363.26	$366.8	+$3.54	47% 500-558 (1058)
FO forecastication4	Heatavg 59.7¢	$251.61	$229.72	-$21.89	11% 24-189 (213)
VeryLucky888	Heatavg 57¢	$214.32	$227.48	+$13.16	51% 299-291 (590)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Jazzavg 38.1¢	$188.35	$224.65	+$36.31	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Heatavg 62¢	$216.85	$192.46	-$24.39	49% 488-513 (1001)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Jazzavg 45¢	$180	$172	-$8	10% 88-785 (873)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Jazzavg 42.2¢	$109.95	$108.02	-$1.93	48% 190-206 (396)
└ Jazz leg	Jazzavg 42.2¢	$69.81	$71.12	+$1.31
└ Heat leg	Heatavg 62¢	$40.14	$36.9	-$3.24
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Jazzavg 39.8¢	$75.6	$75.05	-$0.55	68% 1595-745 (2340)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$44	$45.5	+$1.5	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
PA Pan9XCTR	Jazzavg 41.7¢	$124.04	$35.42	-$7.74	49% 443-470 (913)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	Jazzavg 43¢	$31.82	$32.19	+$0.37	51% 3680-3509 (7189)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Heatavg 58¢	$29.58	$30.35	+$0.77	3% 7-227 (234)
GA Gaditima<$100	Heatavg 56¢	$26.32	$25.61	-$0.7	—
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Jazzavg 44¢	$7.48	$7.74	+$0.25	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Jazzavg 35¢	$5.6	$7.52	+$1.92	28% 274-715 (989)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Jazzavg 46¢	$6.21	$5.33	-$0.88	28% 278-703 (981)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Jazzavg 42¢	$4.2	$4.3	+$0.1	26% 180-518 (698)
65 6512395314597884<$100	Heatavg 57¢	$3.42	$3.27	-$0.15	51% 3172-3071 (6243)

nigiri99ARB<$100

Heat

Invested

$3,046.89

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$92.14

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

Both legs:

Heat$1,562.8261¢-$12.81

Jazz$1,484.0741.7¢-$79.33

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Jazz

Invested

$1,747.67

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$191.82

Record

52%

2582-2418 (5000)

SunlineTicker

Heat

Invested

$1,596.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$13.09

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

hi774cCTR

Jazz

Invested

$846

Value

$826.77

PnL

-$19.23

Record

37-422 (459)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$531.88

Value

$418.11

PnL

-$38.73

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

Both legs:

Jazz$260.0444.5¢-$29.36

Heat$188.0760.7¢-$9.37

ropetard

Heat

Invested

$3,226.26

Value

$387.27

PnL

+$302.5

Record

71%

135-55 (190)

Multicoloured-Serf

Heat

Invested

$363.26

Value

$366.8

PnL

+$3.54

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

forecastication4

Heat

Invested

$251.61

Value

$229.72

PnL

-$21.89

Record

11%

24-189 (213)

VeryLucky888

Heat

Invested

$214.32

Value

$227.48

PnL

+$13.16

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

FlaznorpCTR

Jazz

Invested

$188.35

Value

$224.65

PnL

+$36.31

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Heat

Invested

$216.85

Value

$192.46

PnL

-$24.39

Record

49%

488-513 (1001)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Jazz

Invested

$180

Value

$172

PnL

-$8

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Jazz

Invested

$109.95

Value

$108.02

PnL

-$1.93

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Both legs:

Jazz$69.8142.2¢+$1.31

Heat$40.1462¢-$3.24

RLWGCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$75.6

Value

$75.05

PnL

-$0.55

Record

68%

1595-745 (2340)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$44

Value

$45.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

Pan9XCTR

Jazz

Invested

$124.04

Value

$35.42

PnL

-$7.74

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$31.82

Value

$32.19

PnL

+$0.37

Record

51%

3680-3509 (7189)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Heat

Invested

$29.58

Value

$30.35

PnL

+$0.77

Record

7-227 (234)

Gaditima<$100

Heat

Invested

$26.32

Value

$25.61

PnL

-$0.7

Record

—

purplegattoCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$7.48

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$0.25

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$5.6

Value

$7.52

PnL

+$1.92

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$6.21

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$0.88

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Jazz

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

6512395314597884<$100

Heat

Invested

$3.42

Value

$3.27

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

3172-3071 (6243)

Research grade

AvoidHeat at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Heat

9 of 21 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Heat wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.