Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 220.5

16 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (76%) · Under at 92¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 11

Over9¢Under91¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 91.5¢

+65% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

16 of 21 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over9%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under16 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares12,540

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Over5 traders

Total Value$458.32

Total Shares4,505

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Under — 76%Over — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 76% · 21

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 68.6¢	$3.0K	$3.6K	+$666.09	56% 488-383 (871)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 47.7¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$328.53	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 51¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$740	12% 3-22 (25)
FU Fujimi888	Underavg 48¢	$430.59	$789.42	+$358.83	— 0-6 (6)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 46.5¢	$278.4	$526.46	+$248.06	47% 500-558 (1058)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 29.4¢	$1.0K	$498.2	-$250.57	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
└ Under leg	Underavg 84¢	$339.68	$367.98	+$44.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.4¢	$424.85	$130.22	-$294.64
VE Venusian	Underavg 47¢	$249.35	$454.76	+$205.41	28% 279-730 (1009)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 60.1¢	$412.16	$409.06	+$30.23	48% 949-1019 (1968)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 57.8¢	$247.05	$378.09	+$131.04	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 47.7¢	$177.13	$326.52	+$149.39	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
SE sentrio	Underavg 47.6¢	$130.58	$241.36	+$110.78	34% 233-457 (690)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 53¢	$1.1K	$224.4	-$856.8	70% 1655-702 (2357)
RN1CTR	Overavg 29.6¢	$481.12	$146.2	-$334.92	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
LI Limousin	Underavg 47¢	$64.61	$120.97	+$56.36	28% 285-731 (1016)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 62.9¢	$98.51	$107.52	+$9.01	49% 444-470 (914)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 52¢	$270.09	$57.13	-$212.96	49% 95-99 (194)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 46.3¢	$32.36	$24.83	+$17.16	54% 383-322 (705)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$76.16	$21.42	-$54.74	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Overavg 49.4¢	$41.14	$9.16	-$31.98	40% 234-357 (591)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$4.95	$8.8	+$3.85	26% 181-519 (700)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.42	$4.43	+$2.02	55% 120-97 (217)
PA pauleta23<$100	Underavg 79¢	$1.66	$1.85	+$0.19	25% 148-446 (594)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,959.8

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$666.09

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$2,434.65

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$328.53

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$1,020

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$740

Record

12%

3-22 (25)

Fujimi888

Under

Invested

$430.59

Value

$789.42

PnL

+$358.83

Record

—

0-6 (6)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$278.4

Value

$526.46

PnL

+$248.06

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,029.28

Value

$498.2

PnL

-$250.57

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

Both legs:

Under$339.6884¢+$44.07

Over$424.8529.4¢-$294.64

Venusian

Under

Invested

$249.35

Value

$454.76

PnL

+$205.41

Record

28%

279-730 (1009)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$412.16

Value

$409.06

PnL

+$30.23

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$247.05

Value

$378.09

PnL

+$131.04

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$177.13

Value

$326.52

PnL

+$149.39

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$130.58

Value

$241.36

PnL

+$110.78

Record

34%

233-457 (690)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$1,081.2

Value

$224.4

PnL

-$856.8

Record

70%

1655-702 (2357)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$481.12

Value

$146.2

PnL

-$334.92

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$64.61

Value

$120.97

PnL

+$56.36

Record

28%

285-731 (1016)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$98.51

Value

$107.52

PnL

+$9.01

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$270.09

Value

$57.13

PnL

-$212.96

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$32.36

Value

$24.83

PnL

+$17.16

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.16

Value

$21.42

PnL

-$54.74

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.14

Value

$9.16

PnL

-$31.98

Record

40%

234-357 (591)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$4.95

Value

$8.8

PnL

+$3.85

Record

26%

181-519 (700)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$2.42

Value

$4.43

PnL

+$2.02

Record

55%

120-97 (217)

pauleta23<$100

Under

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0.19

Record

25%

148-446 (594)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

16 of 21 top traders (76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+1 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 54%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

76% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 54% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Under 76% · 21

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.