Bucks vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5

13 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 94¢ · $227K held · ended Nov 11

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$227.2K

Combined PnL

$36.8K

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 94¢

+82% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 26 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under13 traders

Total Value$202.6K

Total Shares220,941

Combined PnL+$87.5K

Over13 traders

Total Value$17.3K

Total Shares134,613

Combined PnL$-50.7K

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 24

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justwins	Underavg 51¢	$101.5K	$182.2K	+$80.6K	49% 107-110 (217)
JO JoeyAroyyOOCTR	Overavg 49¢	$43.6K	$9.8K	$-33.8K	49% 95-99 (194)
AP AppleTiiime	Underavg 52¢	$5.2K	$9.2K	+$4.0K	53% 82-74 (156)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$15.8K	$5.9K	$-9.9K	54% 1657-1434 (3091)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$14.2K	$3.2K	$-11.0K
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$1.6K	$2.7K	+$1.2K
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 49¢	$5.9K	$4.6K	$-1.4K	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 75.3¢	$3.4K	$3.8K	+$460.63	56% 488-383 (871)
AC Ackbar	Underavg 50¢	$1.5K	$2.7K	+$1.2K	— 1-5 (6)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51.6¢	$1.4K	$1.9K	+$819.94	51% 300-292 (592)
PP ppku6298ARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$749.87	0% 0-96 (96)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$462.58	$809.52	+$346.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$1.4K	$326.08	$-1.1K
nehcnehcCTR	Overavg 49¢	$4.7K	$1.1K	$-3.7K	19% 13-57 (70)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 48¢	$6.9K	$861.2	$-6.0K	51% 3680-3510 (7190)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 77.2¢	$1.6K	$667.95	+$28.35	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 51¢	$353.83	$556.28	+$202.45	48% 190-206 (396)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 58.6¢	$447.9	$492.79	+$44.89	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 49¢	$3.9K	$479.88	$-3.4K	—
38 38791873984189	Underavg 61.3¢	$298.49	$384.7	+$96.22	48% 949-1019 (1968)
NM NM-P	Underavg 52¢	$350	$350	+$0	60% 3444-2339 (5783)
GC GC-P	Underavg 52¢	$334.06	$347.18	+$13.12	16% 67-351 (418)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 21.1¢	$794.57	$284.12	-$67.48	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.1¢	$120.58	$179.75	+$195.2
└ Over leg	Overavg 21.1¢	$367.05	$104.37	-$262.68
QI qinlaobanCTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.2K	$283.8	-$954.6	2% 3-167 (170)
IC ic4creamCTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.3K	$160.92	$-1.2K	1% 4-440 (444)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 35.1¢	$119.89	$44.54	+$3.33	49% 444-470 (914)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 48¢	$192	$44	-$148	10% 88-785 (873)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 52¢	$20.8	$36.6	+$15.8	68% 1599-746 (2345)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 53.6¢	$15.8	$26.99	+$11.19	54% 383-322 (705)

justwins

Under

Invested

$101,529.71

Value

$182.2K

PnL

+$80.6K

Record

49%

107-110 (217)

JoeyAroyyOOCTR

Over

Invested

$43,639.8

Value

$9.8K

PnL

$-33.8K

Record

49%

95-99 (194)

AppleTiiime

Under

Invested

$5,200

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

53%

82-74 (156)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Over

Invested

$15,798.57

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-9.9K

Record

54%

1657-1434 (3091)

Both legs:

Over$14,247.1549¢$-11.0K

Under$1,551.4252¢+$1.2K

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$5,943.89

Value

$4.6K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$3,358.18

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$460.63

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

Ackbar

Under

Invested

$1,488.74

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

1-5 (6)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,401.23

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$819.94

Record

51%

300-292 (592)

ppku6298ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,885.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$749.87

Record

0-96 (96)

Both legs:

Under$462.5852¢+$346.94

Over$1,422.8948¢$-1.1K

nehcnehcCTR

Over

Invested

$4,727

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-3.7K

Record

19%

13-57 (70)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$6,889.56

Value

$861.2

PnL

$-6.0K

Record

51%

3680-3510 (7190)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,559.6

Value

$667.95

PnL

+$28.35

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$353.83

Value

$556.28

PnL

+$202.45

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$447.9

Value

$492.79

PnL

+$44.89

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$3,917.96

Value

$479.88

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

—

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$298.49

Value

$384.7

PnL

+$96.22

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$350

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

3444-2339 (5783)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$334.06

Value

$347.18

PnL

+$13.12

Record

16%

67-351 (418)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$794.57

Value

$284.12

PnL

-$67.48

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Both legs:

Under$120.5863.1¢+$195.2

Over$367.0521.1¢-$262.68

qinlaobanCTR

Over

Invested

$1,238.4

Value

$283.8

PnL

-$954.6

Record

3-167 (170)

ic4creamCTR

Over

Invested

$1,341

Value

$160.92

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

4-440 (444)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$119.89

Value

$44.54

PnL

+$3.33

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$192

Value

$44

PnL

-$148

Record

10%

88-785 (873)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$20.8

Value

$36.6

PnL

+$15.8

Record

68%

1599-746 (2345)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$15.8

Value

$26.99

PnL

+$11.19

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

13 of 26 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+14 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

52% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 1

Diverging

sniperUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 24

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.