Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (76%). 18 of 28 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Magic vs. Kings: O/U 223.5

18 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 24¢ · $57K held · ended Nov 11

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$56.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

49.3¢ → 24¢

-51% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

18 of 28 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over18 traders

Total Value$30.7K

Total Shares68,633

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Under10 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares14,552

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 58% · 19

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 65% · 23

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Overavg 50¢	$15.0K	$15.0K	+$0	52% 2582-2418 (5000)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 49.7¢	$10.5K	$7.3K	$-3.1K	54% 1662-1438 (3100)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52.1¢	$7.1K	$7.1K	-$26.45	57% 3075-2312 (5387)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.1¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$108.61
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$82.16
nehcnehc	Underavg 53.7¢	$4.7K	$6.4K	+$1.7K	19% 13-57 (70)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 49.8¢	$5.2K	$4.3K	-$824.54	50% 1562-1566 (3128)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.8¢	$3.6K	$2.3K	$-1.3K
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.1¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$517.97
HG hgawxCTR	Overavg 48¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$173.52	2% 1-43 (44)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45.6¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$187.5	51% 330-319 (649)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 45.1¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$372.2	58% 3830-2807 (6637)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.3¢	$899.47	$1.1K	+$231.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.1¢	$1.6K	$986.72	-$603.91
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 42.3¢	$2.4K	$2.0K	-$418.28	56% 504-395 (899)
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.3¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	-$491.37
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.3¢	$689.61	$762.71	+$73.09
PW Pwaddler	Underavg 52¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$25.39	49% 259-274 (533)
KA KasonWong	Underavg 52¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$20	12% 3-22 (25)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 49.1¢	$804.6	$819.66	+$15.06	28% 299-766 (1065)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 50.3¢	$773.05	$744.76	+$65.21	51% 3173-3073 (6246)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.3¢	$412.27	$594.45	+$182.19
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.2¢	$268.81	$150.3	-$116.98
73 739633786CTR	Overavg 49¢	$352.8	$360	+$7.2	3% 5-185 (190)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 49.9¢	$336.74	$357.63	+$104.68	48% 969-1052 (2021)
latvian.demonCTR	Overavg 50¢	$575	$276	-$299	2% 10-428 (438)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 53¢	$234	$220.76	-$13.25	49% 220-229 (449)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 49¢	$277.93	$173.06	-$104.87	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 40.2¢	$169.98	$115.73	+$9.23	49% 450-474 (924)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$44.49	$62.33	+$23.06
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.2¢	$71.47	$53.4	-$13.83
LI Limousin	Underavg 50¢	$75.78	$115.19	+$39.41	29% 314-785 (1099)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 47¢	$192	$112.34	-$79.66	10% 89-787 (876)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Overavg 49¢	$152.73	$85.8	-$66.93	30% 134-317 (451)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 49.5¢	$133.55	$74.2	-$59.35	29% 307-750 (1057)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Underavg 50¢	$45	$65.25	+$20.25	64% 180-100 (280)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$53.28	$55.5	+$2.22	28% 305-773 (1078)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Over

Invested

$15,000

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

2582-2418 (5000)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$10,538.67

Value

$7.3K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

54%

1662-1438 (3100)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$7,080.71

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$26.45

Record

57%

3075-2312 (5387)

Both legs:

Under$5,108.8752.1¢-$108.61

Over$1,971.8448¢+$82.16

nehcnehc

Under

Invested

$4,729.74

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

19%

13-57 (70)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,174.11

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$824.54

Record

50%

1562-1566 (3128)

Both legs:

Over$3,648.5549.8¢$-1.3K

Under$1,525.5651.1¢+$517.97

hgawxCTR

Over

Invested

$4,164.45

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$173.52

Record

1-43 (44)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,937.5

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$187.5

Record

51%

330-319 (649)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,490.1

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$372.2

Record

58%

3830-2807 (6637)

Both legs:

Under$899.4757.3¢+$231.71

Over$1,590.6345.1¢-$603.91

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,376.32

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$418.28

Record

56%

504-395 (899)

Both legs:

Over$1,686.7142.3¢-$491.37

Under$689.6163.3¢+$73.09

Pwaddler

Under

Invested

$1,320.27

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$25.39

Record

49%

259-274 (533)

KasonWong

Under

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$20

Record

12%

3-22 (25)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$804.6

Value

$819.66

PnL

+$15.06

Record

28%

299-766 (1065)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$773.05

Value

$744.76

PnL

+$65.21

Record

51%

3173-3073 (6246)

Both legs:

Under$412.2750.3¢+$182.19

Over$268.8149.2¢-$116.98

739633786CTR

Over

Invested

$352.8

Value

$360

PnL

+$7.2

Record

5-185 (190)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$336.74

Value

$357.63

PnL

+$104.68

Record

48%

969-1052 (2021)

latvian.demonCTR

Over

Invested

$575

Value

$276

PnL

-$299

Record

10-428 (438)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$234

Value

$220.76

PnL

-$13.25

Record

49%

220-229 (449)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$277.93

Value

$173.06

PnL

-$104.87

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$169.98

Value

$115.73

PnL

+$9.23

Record

49%

450-474 (924)

Both legs:

Under$44.4950¢+$23.06

Over$71.4740.2¢-$13.83

Limousin

Under

Invested

$75.78

Value

$115.19

PnL

+$39.41

Record

29%

314-785 (1099)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$192

Value

$112.34

PnL

-$79.66

Record

10%

89-787 (876)

justaluckydudeCTR

Over

Invested

$152.73

Value

$85.8

PnL

-$66.93

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$133.55

Value

$74.2

PnL

-$59.35

Record

29%

307-750 (1057)

suitcase6628<$100

Under

Invested

$45

Value

$65.25

PnL

+$20.25

Record

64%

180-100 (280)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.28

Value

$55.5

PnL

+$2.22

Record

28%

305-773 (1078)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

18 of 28 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 76%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 58% · 19

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 65% · 23

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.9%

24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$285.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

385.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.