Browns vs. Saints: O/U 42.5

16 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Under (64%) · Under at 69¢ · $46K held · ended Nov 8

Over32¢Under68¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.6K

Combined PnL

$-4.4K

Smart Money Entry

49.6¢ → 68.5¢

+38% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

16 of 25 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over32%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares36,200

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Under16 traders

Total Value$22.3K

Total Shares40,391

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 48.7¢	$7.0K	$9.1K	+$12.24	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.7¢	$7.0K	$6.9K	-$71.92
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$84.17
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Overavg 50.7¢	$12.3K	$7.6K	$-4.7K	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
PW Pwaddler	Underavg 48¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$49.29	49% 493-509 (1002)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 48.2¢	$3.9K	$4.6K	+$1.0K	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PR primm	Underavg 58¢	$2.8K	$3.3K	+$500.38	47% 1426-1612 (3038)
GA Gaditima	Underavg 49.5¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$118.81	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
BA Bagwell306	Underavg 48¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$25	48% 4748-5241 (9989)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 50.9¢	$3.5K	$2.3K	$-1.2K	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Underavg 43.5¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$287.24	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.5¢	$870	$1.3K	+$420
└ Over leg	Overavg 44.5¢	$655.42	$522.67	-$132.76
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 49.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$7.74	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
0xheavy888	Underavg 48.8¢	$961.33	$935.14	-$26.18	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
0X 0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3	Underavg 52.5¢	$525	$670	+$145	45% 426-511 (937)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 45¢	$452.78	$669.1	+$216.33	49% 507-531 (1038)
HONGKONGPEACH	Underavg 46.7¢	$666.08	$648.34	-$17.74	50% 330-334 (664)
TH TheComboConnoisseur	Underavg 50¢	$500	$475	-$25	53% 1279-1133 (2412)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 46¢	$230	$347.5	+$100	80% 4358-1077 (5435)
NM NM-P	Underavg 49.2¢	$341.42	$308.89	-$32.54	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
RN1CTR	Overavg 48¢	$470.4	$308.7	-$161.7	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 49¢	$280.21	$300.23	+$20.02	53% 14307-12631 (26938)
GC GC-P	Underavg 50¢	$235	$237.5	+$2.5	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 50¢	$200	$190	-$10	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 49¢	$117	$118.13	+$1.13	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 41.5¢	$152.24	$115.57	-$36.67	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100	Underavg 55.5¢	$101.31	$110.43	+$9.12	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.5¢	$68.76	$84.8	+$16.04
└ Over leg	Overavg 40¢	$32.55	$25.63	-$6.92
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$53.99	$54.51	+$0.52	53% 679-594 (1273)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$7,037.51

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$12.24

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Under$7,035.8648.7¢-$71.92

Over$2,089.6849¢+$84.17

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Over

Invested

$12,287.76

Value

$7.6K

PnL

$-4.7K

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

Pwaddler

Under

Invested

$4,732.71

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$49.29

Record

49%

493-509 (1002)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$3,879.34

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

primm

Under

Invested

$2,768.89

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$500.38

Record

47%

1426-1612 (3038)

Gaditima

Under

Invested

$2,968.81

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$118.81

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

Bagwell306

Under

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$25

Record

48%

4748-5241 (9989)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$3,509.54

Value

$2.3K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

Anon455ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,525.42

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$287.24

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Both legs:

Under$87043.5¢+$420

Over$655.4244.5¢-$132.76

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$1,475.6

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$7.74

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$961.33

Value

$935.14

PnL

-$26.18

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

0x0b14cac497137dddea6a2b26e94a6bac931e3ca3

Under

Invested

$525

Value

$670

PnL

+$145

Record

45%

426-511 (937)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$452.78

Value

$669.1

PnL

+$216.33

Record

49%

507-531 (1038)

HONGKONGPEACH

Under

Invested

$666.08

Value

$648.34

PnL

-$17.74

Record

50%

330-334 (664)

TheComboConnoisseur

Under

Invested

$500

Value

$475

PnL

-$25

Record

53%

1279-1133 (2412)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$230

Value

$347.5

PnL

+$100

Record

80%

4358-1077 (5435)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$341.42

Value

$308.89

PnL

-$32.54

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$470.4

Value

$308.7

PnL

-$161.7

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$280.21

Value

$300.23

PnL

+$20.02

Record

53%

14307-12631 (26938)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$235

Value

$237.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$190

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$117

Value

$118.13

PnL

+$1.13

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$152.24

Value

$115.57

PnL

-$36.67

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$101.31

Value

$110.43

PnL

+$9.12

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

Both legs:

Under$68.7655.5¢+$16.04

Over$32.5540¢-$6.92

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$53.99

Value

$54.51

PnL

+$0.52

Record

53%

679-594 (1273)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

16 of 25 top traders (64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.