Spread: Rams (-4.5)

13 of 28 top Polymarket traders hold Commanders (46%) · Commanders at 53¢ · $165K held · ended Nov 8

Rams47¢Commanders53¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Commanders

Consensus Traders

Commanders 46%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$164.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 53¢

+2% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

13 of 28 top traders (46%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rams47%

Commanders53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Commanders13 traders

Total Value$104.8K

Total Shares201,617

Combined PnL+$98.93

Rams15 traders

Total Value$55.3K

Total Shares116,437

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Commanders — 46%Rams — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Commanders) and the top 1000 (16 on Rams) disagree here.

whaleCommanders 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrRams 53% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedCommanders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 63% · 16

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Commandersavg 51.7¢	$51.6K	$52.4K	+$499.12	51% 243-229 (472)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Ramsavg 48¢	$19.1K	$18.5K	-$597.3	41% 643-935 (1578)
PW Pwaddler	Commandersavg 51¢	$18.3K	$18.2K	-$179.46	49% 493-509 (1002)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Commandersavg 52¢	$13.8K	$14.0K	+$132.96	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$6.3K	$12.3K	-$116.09	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
BA bands1CTR	Ramsavg 48.2¢	$12.9K	$12.1K	-$732.71	49% 435-448 (883)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN	Commandersavg 52.7¢	$11.1K	$11.0K	-$34.99	51% 1024-996 (2020)
nigiri99CTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$8.6K	$8.7K	+$87.52	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Commandersavg 51.8¢	$6.9K	$6.6K	-$300.27	47% 563-640 (1203)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Commandersavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$10.65	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$20.65
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 48.5¢	$970	$960	-$10
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Commandersavg 51¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$1.43	53% 13621-12019 (25640)
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 51¢	$704.82	$711.73	+$6.91
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 49¢	$556.64	$551.16	-$5.48
PL pltrkr111CTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$999.98	$1.0K	+$10.2	55% 824-676 (1500)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$980	$990	+$10	44% 121-154 (275)
GL glennyorkshire	Commandersavg 52¢	$945.45	$936.36	-$9.09	45% 211-253 (464)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Ramsavg 49¢	$745	$742.5	-$2.5	57% 22329-16593 (38922)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 49¢	$490	$485	-$5
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 51¢	$255	$257.5	+$2.5
GC GC-PARB<$100	Ramsavg 49¢	$740	$742.5	+$2.5	57% 22219-16567 (38786)
└ Rams leg	Ramsavg 49¢	$490	$485	-$5
└ Commanders leg	Commandersavg 50¢	$250	$257.5	+$7.5
HONGKONGPEACH	Commandersavg 52.7¢	$687.72	$671.44	-$16.28	50% 330-334 (664)
38 38791873984189CTR	Ramsavg 49.8¢	$538.18	$535.27	-$2.9	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Commandersavg 53.9¢	$574.92	$531.88	-$35.7	50% 5167-5068 (10235)
RN1CTR	Ramsavg 46.2¢	$329.77	$346.33	+$16.56	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Ramsavg 47.6¢	$237.28	$251.88	+$14.6	51% 5614-5443 (11057)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be	Commandersavg 52¢	$219.77	$217.66	-$2.11	50% 407-407 (814)
VeryLucky888	Commandersavg 50¢	$1.8K	$201.51	+$44.17	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Ramsavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	65% 451-247 (698)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Ramsavg 49¢	$196	$194	-$2	51% 2075-2021 (4096)

Kch-Temp

Commanders

Invested

$51,648.61

Value

$52.4K

PnL

+$499.12

Record

51%

243-229 (472)

BreakTheBankCTR

Rams

Invested

$19,113.55

Value

$18.5K

PnL

-$597.3

Record

41%

643-935 (1578)

Pwaddler

Commanders

Invested

$18,337.83

Value

$18.2K

PnL

-$179.46

Record

49%

493-509 (1002)

ferrariChampions2026

Commanders

Invested

$13,828.18

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$132.96

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Rams

Invested

$6,313.99

Value

$12.3K

PnL

-$116.09

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

bands1CTR

Rams

Invested

$12,857.97

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$732.71

Record

49%

435-448 (883)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN

Commanders

Invested

$11,051.92

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$34.99

Record

51%

1024-996 (2020)

nigiri99CTR

Rams

Invested

$8,574.98

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$87.52

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Commanders

Invested

$6,905.93

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$300.27

Record

47%

563-640 (1203)

Anon455ARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$2,022.11

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$10.65

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

Both legs:

Commanders$1,052.1151¢+$20.65

Rams$97048.5¢-$10

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Commanders

Invested

$1,261.46

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$1.43

Record

53%

13621-12019 (25640)

Both legs:

Commanders$704.8251¢+$6.91

Rams$556.6449¢-$5.48

pltrkr111CTR

Rams

Invested

$999.98

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10.2

Record

55%

824-676 (1500)

DolphinBallerCTR

Rams

Invested

$980

Value

$990

PnL

+$10

Record

44%

121-154 (275)

glennyorkshire

Commanders

Invested

$945.45

Value

$936.36

PnL

-$9.09

Record

45%

211-253 (464)

NM-PARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$745

Value

$742.5

PnL

-$2.5

Record

57%

22329-16593 (38922)

Both legs:

Rams$49049¢-$5

Commanders$25551¢+$2.5

GC-PARB<$100

Rams

Invested

$740

Value

$742.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

57%

22219-16567 (38786)

Both legs:

Rams$49049¢-$5

Commanders$25050¢+$7.5

HONGKONGPEACH

Commanders

Invested

$687.72

Value

$671.44

PnL

-$16.28

Record

50%

330-334 (664)

38791873984189CTR

Rams

Invested

$538.18

Value

$535.27

PnL

-$2.9

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Commanders

Invested

$574.92

Value

$531.88

PnL

-$35.7

Record

50%

5167-5068 (10235)

RN1CTR

Rams

Invested

$329.77

Value

$346.33

PnL

+$16.56

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

6512395314597884CTR

Rams

Invested

$237.28

Value

$251.88

PnL

+$14.6

Record

51%

5614-5443 (11057)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0be

Commanders

Invested

$219.77

Value

$217.66

PnL

-$2.11

Record

50%

407-407 (814)

VeryLucky888

Commanders

Invested

$1,812.52

Value

$201.51

PnL

+$44.17

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Rams

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

65%

451-247 (698)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Rams

Invested

$196

Value

$194

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

Research grade

NeutralCommanders at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Commanders

13 of 28 top traders (46%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

41% of non-arb traders are on Commanders. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Commanders) and the top 1000 (16 on Rams) disagree here.

whaleCommanders 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrRams 53% · 15

Diverging

Hand-pickedCommanders 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Rams 63% · 16

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Commanders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.2%

53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$81.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

181.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.