Buccaneers vs. Bears: O/U 46.5

17 of 32 top Polymarket traders hold Over (53%) · Over at 56¢ · $166K held · ended Nov 9

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 53%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$166.5K

Combined PnL

$10.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 56.5¢

+8% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

17 of 32 top traders (53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over17 traders

Total Value$144.8K

Total Shares256,698

Combined PnL+$10.0K

Under15 traders

Total Value$12.2K

Total Shares25,657

Combined PnL+$98.93

Over — 53%Under — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 52¢	$81.5K	$85.4K	+$3.9K	46% 2028-2381 (4409)
PR primm	Overavg 52.8¢	$13.6K	$16.1K	+$2.5K	46% 1434-1658 (3092)
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 52¢	$13.7K	$14.6K	+$909.57	54% 19992-16872 (36864)
nigiri99	Overavg 52.7¢	$8.3K	$10.0K	+$1.7K	45% 14434-17741 (32175)
HI hi774c	Overavg 52¢	$6.4K	$7.2K	+$804	46% 5629-6541 (12170)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 47¢	$6.5K	$6.4K	-$68.88	48% 521-567 (1088)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 52¢	$5.6K	$5.6K	+$372.41	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
betdge	Overavg 68.8¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$320.17	49% 1425-1476 (2901)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 52.3¢	$4.3K	$2.5K	+$286.77	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.3¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$190.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$830.63	$926.99	+$96.36
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 79.5¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$682.31	54% 4009-3371 (7380)
└ Over leg	Overavg 79.5¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$10
└ Under leg	Underavg 37.6¢	$1.5K	$850.34	-$672.31
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 39.7¢	$3.0K	$2.3K	-$680.32	53% 70249-61821 (132070)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$823.23	$1.2K	+$403.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.7¢	$2.1K	$1.0K	$-1.1K
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 45¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$52.39	50% 5216-5115 (10331)
BR BreakTheBankCTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$14.44	41% 644-941 (1585)
JU justwinsCTR	Underavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$11.85	49% 196-204 (400)
DR DreamwireARB<$100	Overavg 53.6¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$2.3	80% 4375-1094 (5469)
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.6¢	$600.91	$633.11	+$32.2
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$423	$391.5	-$34.5
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 54.8¢	$829.02	$875.11	+$46.09	51% 5685-5538 (11223)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.8¢	$573.92	$591.8	+$17.88
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.2¢	$255.1	$283.31	+$28.21
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 42.6¢	$690.61	$712.55	+$21.94	46% 33417-38911 (72328)
0xheavy888	Overavg 52¢	$584.99	$601.87	+$16.87	56% 8780-6967 (15747)
GC GC-P	Overavg 53¢	$530	$535	+$5	57% 22246-16603 (38849)
NM NM-P	Overavg 53¢	$530	$535	+$5	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 52¢	$452.79	$483.27	+$30.48	50% 48622-48197 (96819)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 66.9¢	$428.13	$375.73	-$52.4	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
└ Over leg	Overavg 66.9¢	$352.69	$300.29	-$52.4
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$75.44	$75.44	-$0
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 36.9¢	$279.68	$326.01	+$46.33	50% 2578-2627 (5205)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$314.9	$312.75	-$2.15	53% 13686-12064 (25750)
TA takeormake	Overavg 60.2¢	$222.85	$275.65	+$52.8	52% 5562-5184 (10746)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$81,520.75

Value

$85.4K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

46%

2028-2381 (4409)

primm

Over

Invested

$13,575.7

Value

$16.1K

PnL

+$2.5K

Record

46%

1434-1658 (3092)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$13,688

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$909.57

Record

54%

19992-16872 (36864)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$8,289.06

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

45%

14434-17741 (32175)

hi774c

Over

Invested

$6,432

Value

$7.2K

PnL

+$804

Record

46%

5629-6541 (12170)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$6,475.17

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$68.88

Record

48%

521-567 (1088)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$5,629.52

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$372.41

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

betdge

Over

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$320.17

Record

49%

1425-1476 (2901)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,346.82

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$286.77

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

Both legs:

Over$1,442.2152.3¢+$190.42

Under$830.6339¢+$96.36

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,112.65

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$682.31

Record

54%

4009-3371 (7380)

Both legs:

Over$1,59079.5¢-$10

Under$1,522.6537.6¢-$672.31

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,952.63

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$680.32

Record

53%

70249-61821 (132070)

Both legs:

Over$823.2354¢+$403.99

Under$2,129.439.7¢$-1.1K

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$1,394.13

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$52.39

Record

50%

5216-5115 (10331)

BreakTheBankCTR

Under

Invested

$1,327.93

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$14.44

Record

41%

644-941 (1585)

justwinsCTR

Under

Invested

$1,114.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$11.85

Record

49%

196-204 (400)

DreamwireARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,070.91

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$2.3

Record

80%

4375-1094 (5469)

Both legs:

Over$600.9153.6¢+$32.2

Under$42347¢-$34.5

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$829.02

Value

$875.11

PnL

+$46.09

Record

51%

5685-5538 (11223)

Both legs:

Over$573.9254.8¢+$17.88

Under$255.139.2¢+$28.21

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$690.61

Value

$712.55

PnL

+$21.94

Record

46%

33417-38911 (72328)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$584.99

Value

$601.87

PnL

+$16.87

Record

56%

8780-6967 (15747)

GC-P

Over

Invested

$530

Value

$535

PnL

+$5

Record

57%

22246-16603 (38849)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$530

Value

$535

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$452.79

Value

$483.27

PnL

+$30.48

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$428.13

Value

$375.73

PnL

-$52.4

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Both legs:

Over$352.6966.9¢-$52.4

Under$75.4443¢-$0

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$279.68

Value

$326.01

PnL

+$46.33

Record

50%

2578-2627 (5205)

justaluckydudeCTR

Under

Invested

$314.9

Value

$312.75

PnL

-$2.15

Record

53%

13686-12064 (25750)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$222.85

Value

$275.65

PnL

+$52.8

Record

52%

5562-5184 (10746)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

17 of 32 top traders (53%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.