Penguins vs. Sharks

8 of 29 top Polymarket traders hold Penguins (28%) · Penguins at 72¢ · $125K held · ended Nov 12

Penguins72¢Sharks28¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Penguins

Consensus Traders

Penguins 28%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$124.8K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 71.5¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralPenguins at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Penguins

8 of 29 top traders (28%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Penguins72%

Sharks28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Penguins8 traders

Total Value$92.5K

Total Shares131,207

Combined PnL+$17.1K

Sharks21 traders

Total Value$31.8K

Total Shares109,545

Combined PnL$-14.8K

Penguins — 28%Sharks — 72%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

28% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSharks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSharks 60% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedSharks 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sharks 70% · 27

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CH chubbytoro	Penguinsavg 57¢	$37.6K	$46.8K	+$9.2K	— 4-13 (17)
SI sinasinner	Penguinsavg 58¢	$29.0K	$35.0K	+$6.0K	— 3-11 (14)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sharksavg 42.8¢	$23.0K	$15.6K	$-7.4K	52% 1914-1760 (3674)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Penguinsavg 58¢	$4.8K	$5.7K	+$983.76	47% 17-19 (36)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Sharksavg 42¢	$5.8K	$4.0K	$-1.8K	52% 15-14 (29)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Sharksavg 42¢	$4.5K	$3.1K	$-1.4K	37% 30-51 (81)
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Penguinsavg 58¢	$1.7K	$2.1K	+$351.96	1% 5-497 (502)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Sharksavg 42.8¢	$2.9K	$2.0K	-$935.12	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
VeryLucky888CTR	Sharksavg 42.5¢	$2.6K	$1.7K	-$810.32	52% 597-541 (1138)
RO roldyCTR	Sharksavg 42¢	$2.5K	$1.7K	-$780	— 4-5 (9)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816	Penguinsavg 56¢	$975.27	$1.2K	+$243.82	5% 11-202 (213)
RO royalestakeCTR	Sharksavg 42¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$508.55	2% 4-184 (188)
HI hi774cCTR	Sharksavg 42¢	$1.3K	$931.89	-$417.74	15% 85-486 (571)
CO cocococococo	Penguinsavg 56¢	$704.16	$880.2	+$176.04	10% 4-35 (39)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Penguinsavg 57.9¢	$674.12	$831.8	+$157.68	48% 540-590 (1130)
nigiri99CTR	Sharksavg 43¢	$863.44	$572.28	-$291.16	52% 235-217 (452)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Sharksavg 50¢	$525	$347.5	-$30	55% 367-301 (668)
└ Penguins leg	Penguinsavg 50¢	$137.5	$195.25	+$80.25
└ Sharks leg	Sharksavg 50¢	$262.5	$152.25	-$110.25
38 38791873984189CTR	Sharksavg 42.2¢	$503.12	$270.72	-$129	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Sharksavg 42¢	$255.36	$176.32	-$79.04	47% 350-393 (743)
KnureKnumeCTR	Sharksavg 42.3¢	$889	$173.88	-$83.52	7% 6-83 (89)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Penguinsavg 64.9¢	$121.54	$112.62	-$8.92	56% 3878-3042 (6920)
└ Penguins leg	Penguinsavg 64.9¢	$68.28	$74.7	+$6.42
└ Sharks leg	Sharksavg 40.7¢	$53.26	$37.92	-$15.34
BA babybellsCTR<$100	Sharksavg 42¢	$85.47	$59.01	-$26.45	25% 139-418 (557)
WE westing.v1CTR<$100	Sharksavg 44¢	$83.26	$54.88	-$28.38	14% 12-71 (83)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Sharksavg 42.5¢	$76.9	$52.49	-$24.41	43% 128-168 (296)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Sharksavg 44¢	$65.56	$43.21	-$22.35	49% 973-998 (1971)

chubbytoro

Penguins

Invested

$37,569.62

Value

$46.8K

PnL

+$9.2K

Record

—

4-13 (17)

sinasinner

Penguins

Invested

$28,999.97

Value

$35.0K

PnL

+$6.0K

Record

—

3-11 (14)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Sharks

Invested

$22,989.49

Value

$15.6K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

52%

1914-1760 (3674)

0x0A77exmm

Penguins

Invested

$4,754.84

Value

$5.7K

PnL

+$983.76

Record

47%

17-19 (36)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Sharks

Invested

$5,844.3

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

52%

15-14 (29)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Sharks

Invested

$4,549.44

Value

$3.1K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

37%

30-51 (81)

JAMJAMJAM4

Penguins

Invested

$1,701.14

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$351.96

Record

5-497 (502)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Sharks

Invested

$2,899.27

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$935.12

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

VeryLucky888CTR

Sharks

Invested

$2,550.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$810.32

Record

52%

597-541 (1138)

roldyCTR

Sharks

Invested

$2,520

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$780

Record

—

4-5 (9)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816

Penguins

Invested

$975.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$243.82

Record

11-202 (213)

royalestakeCTR

Sharks

Invested

$1,643.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$508.55

Record

4-184 (188)

hi774cCTR

Sharks

Invested

$1,349.63

Value

$931.89

PnL

-$417.74

Record

15%

85-486 (571)

cocococococo

Penguins

Invested

$704.16

Value

$880.2

PnL

+$176.04

Record

10%

4-35 (39)

Multicoloured-Serf

Penguins

Invested

$674.12

Value

$831.8

PnL

+$157.68

Record

48%

540-590 (1130)

nigiri99CTR

Sharks

Invested

$863.44

Value

$572.28

PnL

-$291.16

Record

52%

235-217 (452)

NotJumpARB<$100

Sharks

Invested

$525

Value

$347.5

PnL

-$30

Record

55%

367-301 (668)

Both legs:

Penguins$137.550¢+$80.25

Sharks$262.550¢-$110.25

38791873984189CTR

Sharks

Invested

$503.12

Value

$270.72

PnL

-$129

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

SnakeBallCTR

Sharks

Invested

$255.36

Value

$176.32

PnL

-$79.04

Record

47%

350-393 (743)

KnureKnumeCTR

Sharks

Invested

$889

Value

$173.88

PnL

-$83.52

Record

6-83 (89)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Penguins

Invested

$121.54

Value

$112.62

PnL

-$8.92

Record

56%

3878-3042 (6920)

Both legs:

Penguins$68.2864.9¢+$6.42

Sharks$53.2640.7¢-$15.34

babybellsCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$85.47

Value

$59.01

PnL

-$26.45

Record

25%

139-418 (557)

westing.v1CTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$83.26

Value

$54.88

PnL

-$28.38

Record

14%

12-71 (83)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$76.9

Value

$52.49

PnL

-$24.41

Record

43%

128-168 (296)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Sharks

Invested

$65.56

Value

$43.21

PnL

-$22.35

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

Research grade

NeutralPenguins at 72%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Penguins

8 of 29 top traders (28%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed21 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

28% of non-arb traders are on Penguins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSharks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrSharks 60% · 20

Diverging

Hand-pickedSharks 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Sharks 70% · 27

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Penguins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.