Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-11-06?

14 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 99¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 6

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$31.2K

Combined PnL

$3.2K

Smart Money Entry

80.8¢ → 98.7¢

+22% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$30.8K

Total Shares31,294

Combined PnL+$8.3K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$447.68

Total Shares24,525

Combined PnL$-5.1K

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 84% · 19

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO roscoff	Noavg 80¢	$11.3K	$13.9K	+$2.6K	51% 174-170 (344)
LU lukibazdonauki754	Noavg 94.9¢	$8.5K	$8.8K	+$264.82	61% 930-602 (1532)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702	Noavg 6.6¢	$502.04	$2.5K	+$5.2K	41% 1160-1663 (2823)
bot-rapin	Noavg 98.3¢	$3.3K	$1.7K	+$25.86	— 6-0 (6)
xxNyx	Noavg 96.6¢	$3.0K	$1.6K	+$69.44	82% 1810-404 (2214)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 84¢	$2.8K	$858.24	+$118.12	53% 23170-20401 (43571)
DI dips.	Noavg 87.7¢	$643.37	$720.83	+$76.37	47% 10585-12110 (22695)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 21.6¢	$4.5K	$406.41	$-4.1K	50% 21104-21351 (42455)
morito181	Noavg 96.2¢	$339.58	$346.99	+$6.88	61% 871-555 (1426)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 85.7¢	$331.68	$116.88	+$14.87	42% 1223-1712 (2935)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225	Noavg 89.2¢	$695.47	$79.06	+$7.57	41% 2329-3363 (5692)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493	Noavg 84¢	$666.02	$79.01	+$11.72	55% 4498-3708 (8206)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 95¢	$66	$50.84	-$15.17	42% 3191-4365 (7556)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293	Noavg 85.2¢	$788.25	$31.67	+$4.31	47% 1713-1907 (3620)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 76¢	$1.3K	$24.97	$-1.0K	58% 46317-33437 (79754)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$24.38	$16.19	-$8.2	20% 2785-10964 (13749)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$7.59	$7.81	+$0.22	72% 14222-5519 (19741)
BU Burkilota1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$1.71	$0.1	-$1.61	63% 765-453 (1218)

roscoff

Invested

$11,291.43

Value

$13.9K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

51%

174-170 (344)

lukibazdonauki754

Invested

$8,534.77

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$264.82

Record

61%

930-602 (1532)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Invested

$502.04

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

41%

1160-1663 (2823)

bot-rapin

Invested

$3,324.62

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$25.86

Record

—

6-0 (6)

xxNyx

Invested

$2,993.66

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$69.44

Record

82%

1810-404 (2214)

cigarettes

Invested

$2,793.41

Value

$858.24

PnL

+$118.12

Record

53%

23170-20401 (43571)

dips.

Invested

$643.37

Value

$720.83

PnL

+$76.37

Record

47%

10585-12110 (22695)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$4,467.24

Value

$406.41

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

50%

21104-21351 (42455)

morito181

Invested

$339.58

Value

$346.99

PnL

+$6.88

Record

61%

871-555 (1426)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$331.68

Value

$116.88

PnL

+$14.87

Record

42%

1223-1712 (2935)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225

Invested

$695.47

Value

$79.06

PnL

+$7.57

Record

41%

2329-3363 (5692)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493

Invested

$666.02

Value

$79.01

PnL

+$11.72

Record

55%

4498-3708 (8206)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$66

Value

$50.84

PnL

-$15.17

Record

42%

3191-4365 (7556)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293

Invested

$788.25

Value

$31.67

PnL

+$4.31

Record

47%

1713-1907 (3620)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,349.97

Value

$24.97

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

58%

46317-33437 (79754)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.38

Value

$16.19

PnL

-$8.2

Record

20%

2785-10964 (13749)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$7.59

Value

$7.81

PnL

+$0.22

Record

72%

14222-5519 (19741)

Burkilota1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.61

Record

63%

765-453 (1218)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

14 of 18 top traders (78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

17 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

47h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

81% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 84% · 19

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.