Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-11-05?

9 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (41%) · No at 80¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 5

Yes21¢No79¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 41%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.8K

Combined PnL

$289

Smart Money Entry

85.4¢ → 79.5¢

-7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 22 top traders (41%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares5,032

Combined PnL-$98.8

Yes13 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares13,749

Combined PnL+$387.8

No — 41%Yes — 59%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276	Noavg 87¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$90	67% 2798-1381 (4179)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 85¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$18.01	64% 9921-5527 (15448)
└ No leg	Noavg 85¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$11.94
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.5¢	$296.13	$326.08	+$29.95
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 15.2¢	$719.96	$910.4	+$190.44	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
oieshfn345	Noavg 81.8¢	$819.33	$816.63	-$2.7	57% 2031-1503 (3534)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Noavg 85.8¢	$715.63	$745.77	+$30.14	53% 16798-14919 (31717)
└ No leg	Noavg 85.8¢	$402.48	$394.04	-$8.44
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14.2¢	$313.15	$351.73	+$38.58
GC GC-PARB<$100	Noavg 84.7¢	$724.96	$729.13	+$4.18	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
└ No leg	Noavg 84.7¢	$484.25	$480.39	-$3.86
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.5¢	$240.71	$248.74	+$8.03
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 13.6¢	$543.66	$641.23	+$97.57	50% 28416-28324 (56740)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 83¢	$498	$504	+$6	51% 1899-1850 (3749)
ReformedxCTR	Yesavg 17.2¢	$325.83	$330.81	+$4.98	51% 870-839 (1709)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 16.6¢	$291.9	$262.7	+$10.14	58% 46675-33635 (80310)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 19¢	$214.43	$220.07	+$5.64	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 86.5¢	$181.84	$149.43	-$6.01	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
nigiri99CTR	Yesavg 13¢	$92.82	$146.37	+$53.55	46% 8591-10242 (18833)
tradecraftARB<$100	Noavg 82¢	$93.32	$99.14	+$5.82	51% 6344-6129 (12473)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.6¢	$46.17	$51.7	+$5.53
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$47.15	$47.44	+$0.29
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$85.8	$83.19	-$2.6	50% 25814-25509 (51323)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$60	$82	+$22	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 86.6¢	$50.23	$48.72	-$1.51	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 84.1¢	$48.16	$38.96	-$1.46	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 82.7¢	$37.65	$37.08	-$0.56	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$31.86	$36.41	+$4.55	51% 37665-36890 (74555)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$10.5	$10.75	+$0.25	49% 3215-3381 (6596)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$11	$9.75	-$1.25	52% 14487-13178 (27665)
DV dv-pm<$100	Noavg 83¢	$9.13	$9.19	+$0.06	49% 3325-3529 (6854)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$6.06	$5.96	-$0.1	50% 21164-21421 (42585)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 18.7¢	$1.04	$0.97	-$0.07	66% 24256-12368 (36624)

0x5E39013a1d7C4B502ad2Ea073d7e8A0469cA352C-1765309578276

Invested

$2,610

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$90

Record

67%

2798-1381 (4179)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$1,363.48

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$18.01

Record

64%

9921-5527 (15448)

Both legs:

No$1,067.3585¢-$11.94

Yes$296.1314.5¢+$29.95

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$719.96

Value

$910.4

PnL

+$190.44

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

oieshfn345

Invested

$819.33

Value

$816.63

PnL

-$2.7

Record

57%

2031-1503 (3534)

CannaeARB<$100

Invested

$715.63

Value

$745.77

PnL

+$30.14

Record

53%

16798-14919 (31717)

Both legs:

No$402.4885.8¢-$8.44

Yes$313.1514.2¢+$38.58

GC-PARB<$100

Invested

$724.96

Value

$729.13

PnL

+$4.18

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

Both legs:

No$484.2584.7¢-$3.86

Yes$240.7115.5¢+$8.03

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$543.66

Value

$641.23

PnL

+$97.57

Record

50%

28416-28324 (56740)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$498

Value

$504

PnL

+$6

Record

51%

1899-1850 (3749)

ReformedxCTR

Yes

Invested

$325.83

Value

$330.81

PnL

+$4.98

Record

51%

870-839 (1709)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$291.9

Value

$262.7

PnL

+$10.14

Record

58%

46675-33635 (80310)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$214.43

Value

$220.07

PnL

+$5.64

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

38791873984189

Invested

$181.84

Value

$149.43

PnL

-$6.01

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

nigiri99CTR

Yes

Invested

$92.82

Value

$146.37

PnL

+$53.55

Record

46%

8591-10242 (18833)

tradecraftARB<$100

Invested

$93.32

Value

$99.14

PnL

+$5.82

Record

51%

6344-6129 (12473)

Both legs:

Yes$46.1715.6¢+$5.53

No$47.1582¢+$0.29

sentrio<$100

Invested

$85.8

Value

$83.19

PnL

-$2.6

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60

Value

$82

PnL

+$22

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$50.23

Value

$48.72

PnL

-$1.51

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$48.16

Value

$38.96

PnL

-$1.46

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$37.65

Value

$37.08

PnL

-$0.56

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.86

Value

$36.41

PnL

+$4.55

Record

51%

37665-36890 (74555)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.75

PnL

+$0.25

Record

49%

3215-3381 (6596)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11

Value

$9.75

PnL

-$1.25

Record

52%

14487-13178 (27665)

dv-pm<$100

Invested

$9.13

Value

$9.19

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

3325-3529 (6854)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.06

Value

$5.96

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

21164-21421 (42585)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.97

PnL

-$0.07

Record

66%

24256-12368 (36624)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 22 top traders (41%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (15 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.