Sopo: Tatjana Maria vs Luisina Giovannini

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Luisina Giovannini (62%) · Luisina Giovannini at 62¢ · $99K held · ends Nov 17

Tatjana Maria39¢Luisina Giovannini61¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Luisina Giovannini

Consensus Traders

Luisina Giovannini 62%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$98.8K

Combined PnL

$49.5K

Smart Money Entry

58.9¢ → 61.5¢

+5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralLuisina Giovannini at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Luisina Giovannini

8 of 13 top traders (62%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tatjana Maria39%

Luisina Giovannini62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Luisina Giovannini8 traders

Total Value$49.8K

Total Shares81,185

Combined PnL+$39.4K

Tatjana Maria5 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares39,203

Combined PnL+$10.2K

Luisina Giovannini — 62%Tatjana Maria — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmst	Luisina Giovanniniavg 58¢	$36.9K	$37.8K	+$38.5K	47% 127-145 (272)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 54.5¢	$24.3K	$24.5K	+$171.09	47% 2303-2604 (4907)
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 54.5¢	$13.0K	$15.6K	+$2.6K
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 44¢	$11.4K	$8.9K	$-2.4K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Tatjana Mariaavg 1¢	$284.48	$11.5K	+$11.2K	53% 6777-6002 (12779)
LI Limousin	Luisina Giovanniniavg 61.5¢	$5.4K	$5.6K	+$178.46	46% 2902-3417 (6319)
MA MadridTime	Luisina Giovanniniavg 64.3¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$152.15	45% 2807-3427 (6234)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Tatjana Mariaavg 44.1¢	$5.3K	$3.7K	$-1.1K	58% 241-178 (419)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 60.9¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$44.55	45% 2863-3516 (6379)
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 60.9¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$89.62
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 39.8¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$134.17
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 64.9¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$19.74	45% 2787-3376 (6163)
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 64.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$32.85
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 37¢	$557.71	$505.12	-$52.59
tradecraftARB<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 29.3¢	$1.5K	$1.9K	+$326.69	51% 6938-6596 (13534)
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 29.3¢	$971.91	$1.1K	+$174.38
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 51.7¢	$569.25	$721.57	+$152.32
TH thestingsnake	Luisina Giovanniniavg 56.8¢	$2.4K	$1.2K	+$510.65	60% 4656-3142 (7798)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 43.2¢	$2.7K	$1.1K	-$235.47	48% 72298-78071 (150369)
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 43.2¢	$1.1K	$834.57	-$338.73
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 47¢	$172.87	$244.73	+$103.26
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 47.5¢	$1.9K	$856.57	-$28.78	53% 863-760 (1623)
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 48.3¢	$384.57	$529.88	+$155.73
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 47.5¢	$463.24	$326.69	-$184.51
RN1ARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 57.4¢	$482.52	$503.89	+$21.37	53% 72174-63643 (135817)
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 57.4¢	$311.65	$355.75	+$44.09
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 39.8¢	$170.87	$148.15	-$22.72
EU Eulhunter	Luisina Giovanniniavg 52.1¢	$242.28	$289.12	+$46.84	53% 6838-5988 (12826)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 66.3¢	$94.69	$98.25	+$3.57	53% 15746-13885 (29631)
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 66.3¢	$55.72	$51.67	-$4.05
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 32.2¢	$38.97	$46.58	+$7.61
machinelearnedARB<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 52.1¢	$71.59	$76.54	+$4.95	54% 10553-8964 (19517)
└ Luisina Giovannini leg	Luisina Giovanniniavg 52.1¢	$44.19	$56.44	+$12.25
└ Tatjana Maria leg	Tatjana Mariaavg 45.7¢	$27.4	$20.1	-$7.3
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 46.9¢	$76.66	$62.93	-$13.72	56% 39952-31558 (71510)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 41.8¢	$47.06	$40.07	-$6.99	52% 6211-5738 (11949)
OJ ojgCTR<$100	Tatjana Mariaavg 48.9¢	$47.61	$38.95	-$8.65	51% 4009-3805 (7814)
TRCM<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 67.1¢	$19.75	$19.27	-$0.48	55% 4147-3336 (7483)
PA pauleta23<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 68¢	$10	$9.78	-$0.22	65% 25770-13867 (39637)
SE sentrio<$100	Luisina Giovanniniavg 66¢	$6.59	$6.64	+$0.05	51% 28897-28239 (57136)

robustmst

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$36,856.18

Value

$37.8K

PnL

+$38.5K

Record

47%

127-145 (272)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$24,334.11

Value

$24.5K

PnL

+$171.09

Record

47%

2303-2604 (4907)

Both legs:

Luisina Giovannini$12,950.7954.5¢+$2.6K

Tatjana Maria$11,383.3244¢$-2.4K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$284.48

Value

$11.5K

PnL

+$11.2K

Record

53%

6777-6002 (12779)

Limousin

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$5,412.23

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$178.46

Record

46%

2902-3417 (6319)

MadridTime

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$4,760.14

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$152.15

Record

45%

2807-3427 (6234)

thirdt1meCTR

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$5,250.03

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

241-178 (419)

VenusianARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$2,782.04

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$44.55

Record

45%

2863-3516 (6379)

Both legs:

Luisina Giovannini$1,528.8260.9¢+$89.62

Tatjana Maria$1,253.2239.8¢-$134.17

LightParadoxARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$1,930.07

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$19.74

Record

45%

2787-3376 (6163)

Both legs:

Luisina Giovannini$1,372.3664.9¢+$32.85

Tatjana Maria$557.7137¢-$52.59

tradecraftARB<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$1,541.16

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$326.69

Record

51%

6938-6596 (13534)

Both legs:

Tatjana Maria$971.9129.3¢+$174.38

Luisina Giovannini$569.2551.7¢+$152.32

thestingsnake

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$2,426.1

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$510.65

Record

60%

4656-3142 (7798)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$2,666.88

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$235.47

Record

48%

72298-78071 (150369)

Both legs:

Tatjana Maria$1,076.9643.2¢-$338.73

Luisina Giovannini$172.8747¢+$103.26

1lovejumpARB<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$1,860.32

Value

$856.57

PnL

-$28.78

Record

53%

863-760 (1623)

Both legs:

Luisina Giovannini$384.5748.3¢+$155.73

Tatjana Maria$463.2447.5¢-$184.51

RN1ARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$482.52

Value

$503.89

PnL

+$21.37

Record

53%

72174-63643 (135817)

Both legs:

Luisina Giovannini$311.6557.4¢+$44.09

Tatjana Maria$170.8739.8¢-$22.72

Eulhunter

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$242.28

Value

$289.12

PnL

+$46.84

Record

53%

6838-5988 (12826)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$94.69

Value

$98.25

PnL

+$3.57

Record

53%

15746-13885 (29631)

Both legs:

Luisina Giovannini$55.7266.3¢-$4.05

Tatjana Maria$38.9732.2¢+$7.61

machinelearnedARB<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$71.59

Value

$76.54

PnL

+$4.95

Record

54%

10553-8964 (19517)

Both legs:

Luisina Giovannini$44.1952.1¢+$12.25

Tatjana Maria$27.445.7¢-$7.3

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$76.66

Value

$62.93

PnL

-$13.72

Record

56%

39952-31558 (71510)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$47.06

Value

$40.07

PnL

-$6.99

Record

52%

6211-5738 (11949)

ojgCTR<$100

Tatjana Maria

Invested

$47.61

Value

$38.95

PnL

-$8.65

Record

51%

4009-3805 (7814)

TRCM<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$19.75

Value

$19.27

PnL

-$0.48

Record

55%

4147-3336 (7483)

pauleta23<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$10

Value

$9.78

PnL

-$0.22

Record

65%

25770-13867 (39637)

sentrio<$100

Luisina Giovannini

Invested

$6.59

Value

$6.64

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

28897-28239 (57136)

Research grade

NeutralLuisina Giovannini at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Luisina Giovannini

8 of 13 top traders (62%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Luisina Giovannini wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.