WTA Finals, Group B: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova
33 of 46 top Polymarket traders hold Aryna Sabalenka (72%) · Aryna Sabalenka at 100¢ · $359K held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Aryna Sabalenka
46
Aryna Sabalenka 72%
$358.8K
$-31.1K
76.2¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 33 traders
Research grade
NeutralAryna Sabalenka at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- ATP/WTA tour match, 70 %+Not confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +16.6 % (n 164) and +19.0 % (n 120) in two short windows. Full year, out of sample: tennis lost −3.4 % a trade (n 12,026, 95 % CI −4.9 to −1.9); today's top traders, picked with hindsight, made +0.9 % at tour level (n 3,424).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
33 of 46 top traders (72%)13 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
33 traders
Top 2 hold 39%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
72% of non-arb traders are on Aryna Sabalenka. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 67.1¢ | $84.8K | $83.7K | $-1.0K | 54% 233-201 (434) |
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 61.9¢ | $33.5K | $54.1K | +$20.5K | 6% 25-409 (434) |
PE pelik | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 99.9¢ | $25.0K | $25.0K | +$12.51 | — 12-0 (12) |
RE redvinny | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 89.4¢ | $22.0K | $24.6K | +$2.6K | 5% 4-77 (81) |
NO Novelty8 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 99.9¢ | $23.6K | $23.7K | +$11.83 | 1% 1-98 (99) |
99 999585 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 94.9¢ | $22.1K | $23.3K | +$1.2K | 77% 49-15 (64) |
MA MadridTime | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 72.8¢ | $18.7K | $22.2K | +$3.5K | 25% 86-262 (348) |
TH thirdt1me | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 67.5¢ | $10.4K | $15.4K | +$5.0K | 0% 0-34 (34) |
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 66.7¢ | $12.9K | $13.2K | +$240.49 | 39% 41-64 (105) |
FL Flaznorp | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 77.5¢ | $11.1K | $12.4K | +$1.3K | 52% 242-224 (466) |
EU Eulhunter | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 68.8¢ | $7.9K | $9.2K | +$1.3K | 55% 34-28 (62) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 64¢ | $4.4K | $6.0K | +$1.6K | 2% 7-311 (318) |
ER Erick2307 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 99.9¢ | $5.7K | $5.7K | +$2.86 | — 2-1 (3) |
LI Limousin | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 67.1¢ | $4.3K | $5.7K | +$1.4K | 24% 90-282 (372) |
38 38791873984189 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 71.9¢ | $6.1K | $4.4K | +$72.3 | 49% 383-404 (787) |
VE Venusian | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 86.2¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$22.75 | 23% 82-268 (350) |
 cs2.quant | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 67¢ | $2.3K | $3.5K | +$1.1K | 4% 3-67 (70) |
 tradecraft | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 69¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$52.85 | 19% 42-180 (222) |
LI LightParadox | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 71.7¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$38.32 | 26% 87-252 (339) |
TH thestingsnake | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 72.6¢ | $2.7K | $2.2K | +$258.87 | 25% 37-109 (146) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 67¢ | $1.3K | $2.0K | +$659 | 5% 21-415 (436) |
OJ ojg | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 94.2¢ | $2.2K | $1.9K | -$46.83 | 33% 48-99 (147) |
 0xheavy888 | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 66¢ | $1.0K | $1.5K | +$523.45 | 69% 29-13 (42) |
BA babybells | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 81.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$134.31 | 0% 0-93 (93) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Aryna Sabalenkaavg 76.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$341.18 | 32% 68-143 (211) |
RN1Invested
$84,761.16
Value
$83.7K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
54%
233-201 (434)
Invested
$33,548.16
Value
$54.1K
PnL
+$20.5K
Record
6%
25-409 (434)
Invested
$24,999.99
Value
$25.0K
PnL
+$12.51
Record
—
12-0 (12)
Invested
$22,006.63
Value
$24.6K
PnL
+$2.6K
Record
5%
4-77 (81)
Invested
$23,644.94
Value
$23.7K
PnL
+$11.83
Record
1%
1-98 (99)
Invested
$22,113.08
Value
$23.3K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
77%
49-15 (64)
Invested
$18,702.19
Value
$22.2K
PnL
+$3.5K
Record
25%
86-262 (348)
Invested
$10,413.21
Value
$15.4K
PnL
+$5.0K
Record
0%
0-34 (34)
Invested
$12,915.85
Value
$13.2K
PnL
+$240.49
Record
39%
41-64 (105)
Invested
$11,130.82
Value
$12.4K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
52%
242-224 (466)
Invested
$7,917.32
Value
$9.2K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
55%
34-28 (62)
Invested
$4,419.29
Value
$6.0K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
2%
7-311 (318)
Invested
$5,699.66
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$2.86
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Invested
$4,301.28
Value
$5.7K
PnL
+$1.4K
Record
24%
90-282 (372)
Invested
$6,099.31
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$72.3
Record
49%
383-404 (787)
Invested
$3,572.27
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$22.75
Record
23%
82-268 (350)
cs2.quantInvested
$2,330
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
4%
3-67 (70)
tradecraftInvested
$2,732.08
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$52.85
Record
19%
42-180 (222)
Invested
$2,591.07
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$38.32
Record
26%
87-252 (339)
Invested
$2,673.99
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$258.87
Record
25%
37-109 (146)
Invested
$1,340
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$659
Record
5%
21-415 (436)
Invested
$2,193.32
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$46.83
Record
33%
48-99 (147)
0xheavy888Invested
$1,017.6
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$523.45
Record
69%
29-13 (42)
Invested
$1,385.55
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$134.31
Record
0%
0-93 (93)
Invested
$1,109.58
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$341.18
Record
32%
68-143 (211)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
Aryna Sabalenka — $83.7K
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465
Aryna Sabalenka — $54.1K
pelik
Aryna Sabalenka — $25.0K
redvinny
Aryna Sabalenka — $24.6K
Novelty8
Aryna Sabalenka — $23.7K
999585
Aryna Sabalenka — $23.3K
MadridTime
Aryna Sabalenka — $22.2K
thirdt1me
Aryna Sabalenka — $15.4K
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2
Aryna Sabalenka — $13.2K
Flaznorp
Aryna Sabalenka — $12.4K