Sopo: Katrina Scott vs Andrea Lazaro Garcia

3 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Andrea Lazaro Garcia (11%) · Andrea Lazaro Garcia at 53¢ · $312K held · ends Nov 17

Katrina Scott48¢Andrea Lazaro Garcia52¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Consensus Traders

Andrea Lazaro Garcia 11%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$312.4K

Combined PnL

$42.37

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralAndrea Lazaro Garcia at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

3 of 27 top traders (11%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Katrina Scott48%

Andrea Lazaro Garcia53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Andrea Lazaro Garcia3 traders

Total Value$176.5K

Total Shares329,857

Combined PnL+$4.6K

Katrina Scott24 traders

Total Value$121.8K

Total Shares261,636

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Andrea Lazaro Garcia — 11%Katrina Scott — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VP Vps1	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 52.1¢	$171.8K	$176.4K	+$4.6K	85% 74-13 (87)
RN1CTR	Katrina Scottavg 49.8¢	$46.3K	$43.7K	$-2.6K	58% 3757-2710 (6467)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Katrina Scottavg 44.4¢	$23.0K	$23.5K	+$881.96	25% 215-633 (848)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Katrina Scottavg 50.7¢	$23.1K	$21.2K	$-1.9K	54% 1625-1379 (3004)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Katrina Scottavg 48¢	$12.5K	$12.5K	-$4.04	51% 3162-3063 (6225)
└ Katrina Scott leg	Katrina Scottavg 48¢	$7.3K	$6.7K	-$535.75
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 50.4¢	$5.2K	$5.7K	+$531.71
TH thirdt1meCTR	Katrina Scottavg 49.1¢	$9.5K	$8.1K	-$906.6	37% 70-118 (188)
LI LimousinCTR	Katrina Scottavg 43.9¢	$5.9K	$6.3K	+$348.44	25% 213-654 (867)
VE VenusianCTR	Katrina Scottavg 42.9¢	$5.1K	$5.5K	+$424	25% 213-654 (867)
HV HVABCTR	Katrina Scottavg 47¢	$5.0K	$4.5K	-$478.72	24% 8-25 (33)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Katrina Scottavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.2K	-$243.18	25% 214-643 (857)
TRCMCTR	Katrina Scottavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$45	8% 35-416 (451)
tradecraftCTR	Katrina Scottavg 43¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$45	16% 106-570 (676)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Katrina Scottavg 53.4¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$80.39	18% 78-366 (444)
└ Katrina Scott leg	Katrina Scottavg 53.4¢	$643.2	$560.33	-$82.87
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 53.5¢	$484.85	$484.91	+$2.48
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Katrina Scottavg 40.4¢	$902.64	$1.0K	+$136.56	18% 72-338 (410)
38 38791873984189CTR	Katrina Scottavg 48.4¢	$1.2K	$626.54	-$53.6	48% 859-937 (1796)
SE sentrioCTR	Katrina Scottavg 52¢	$529.78	$514.49	-$15.28	31% 170-383 (553)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 53.8¢	$484.45	$484.21	-$0.25	56% 3797-2958 (6755)
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 53.8¢	$254.8	$253.14	-$1.65
└ Katrina Scott leg	Katrina Scottavg 46.2¢	$229.66	$231.06	+$1.41
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Katrina Scottavg 53¢	$530	$435	-$95	9% 77-775 (852)
SU suitcase6628CTR	Katrina Scottavg 44.3¢	$402.9	$404.95	+$2.05	63% 152-88 (240)
machinelearnedCTR	Katrina Scottavg 48.1¢	$271.01	$239.3	-$31.71	35% 335-614 (949)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Katrina Scottavg 43.2¢	$219.75	$226.38	+$6.63	23% 94-307 (401)
CI cigarettesCTR	Katrina Scottavg 47¢	$235	$212.5	-$22.5	53% 5376-4855 (10231)
VeryLucky888CTR	Katrina Scottavg 19¢	$95	$120	+$25	49% 231-239 (470)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 64¢	$104.85	$96.07	-$8.78	52% 62-58 (120)
└ Andrea Lazaro Garcia leg	Andrea Lazaro Garciaavg 64¢	$83.2	$74.75	-$8.45
└ Katrina Scott leg	Katrina Scottavg 43.2¢	$21.65	$21.32	-$0.33
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Katrina Scottavg 45.2¢	$99.44	$93.5	-$5.94	50% 151-150 (301)

Vps1

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$171,820.02

Value

$176.4K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

85%

74-13 (87)

RN1CTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$46,330.33

Value

$43.7K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

58%

3757-2710 (6467)

MadridTimeCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$22,952.42

Value

$23.5K

PnL

+$881.96

Record

25%

215-633 (848)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$23,136.18

Value

$21.2K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

1625-1379 (3004)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Katrina Scott

Invested

$12,481.66

Value

$12.5K

PnL

-$4.04

Record

51%

3162-3063 (6225)

Both legs:

Katrina Scott$7,266.3948¢-$535.75

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$5,215.2750.4¢+$531.71

thirdt1meCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$9,502.35

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$906.6

Record

37%

70-118 (188)

LimousinCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$5,910.4

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$348.44

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

VenusianCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$5,058.71

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$424

Record

25%

213-654 (867)

HVABCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$478.72

Record

24%

8-25 (33)

LightParadoxCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$2,469.17

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$243.18

Record

25%

214-643 (857)

TRCMCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$1,290

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$45

Record

35-416 (451)

tradecraftCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$1,290

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$45

Record

16%

106-570 (676)

babybellsARB<$100

Katrina Scott

Invested

$1,288.53

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$80.39

Record

18%

78-366 (444)

Both legs:

Katrina Scott$643.253.4¢-$82.87

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$484.8553.5¢+$2.48

thestingsnakeCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$902.64

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$136.56

Record

18%

72-338 (410)

38791873984189CTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$1,186.84

Value

$626.54

PnL

-$53.6

Record

48%

859-937 (1796)

sentrioCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$529.78

Value

$514.49

PnL

-$15.28

Record

31%

170-383 (553)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$484.45

Value

$484.21

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

3797-2958 (6755)

Both legs:

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$254.853.8¢-$1.65

Katrina Scott$229.6646.2¢+$1.41

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$530

Value

$435

PnL

-$95

Record

77-775 (852)

suitcase6628CTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$402.9

Value

$404.95

PnL

+$2.05

Record

63%

152-88 (240)

machinelearnedCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$271.01

Value

$239.3

PnL

-$31.71

Record

35%

335-614 (949)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$219.75

Value

$226.38

PnL

+$6.63

Record

23%

94-307 (401)

cigarettesCTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$235

Value

$212.5

PnL

-$22.5

Record

53%

5376-4855 (10231)

VeryLucky888CTR

Katrina Scott

Invested

$95

Value

$120

PnL

+$25

Record

49%

231-239 (470)

EulhunterARB<$100

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

Invested

$104.85

Value

$96.07

PnL

-$8.78

Record

52%

62-58 (120)

Both legs:

Andrea Lazaro Garcia$83.264¢-$8.45

Katrina Scott$21.6543.2¢-$0.33

lryyyCTR<$100

Katrina Scott

Invested

$99.44

Value

$93.5

PnL

-$5.94

Record

50%

151-150 (301)

Research grade

NeutralAndrea Lazaro Garcia at 53%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Andrea Lazaro Garcia

3 of 27 top traders (11%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed24 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Andrea Lazaro Garcia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.