Skip to content

Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Details
PolyConsensus
← Traders

Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpHaradwaith
Record (consensus markets)58% (4520–3295, n=7815)45% (573–710, n=1283)52% (6506–6010, n=12516)39% (3405–5226, n=8631)
Consensus PnL$7.8M$7.9M$3.3M-$465K
Tracked asPM monthly #67PM monthly #3PM monthly #24PM monthly #275
Sides with the consensus50% (3 of 6 open)64% (18 of 28 open)73% (163 of 223 open)62% (1514 of 2461 open)
Strongest topics
  • NBA +9 pts n=444, ROI +6%
  • Soccer +4 pts n=2281, ROI +1%
  • Tennis +4 pts n=1399, ROI +4%
  • NFL +51 pts n=140, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=96, ROI +47%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=281, ROI +37%
  • Tennis +13 pts n=53, ROI +24%
  • NHL +8 pts n=61, ROI +12%
  • Esports +9 pts n=13, ROI +14%
  • MLB +3 pts n=10, ROI +20%
Weakest topicNHL −1 pts, n=134—Other Sports −13 pts, n=22Weather −6 pts, n=556
Settled positions, side won59% of 7054 at avg 55¢, ROI +2%97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40%56% of 1617 at avg 55¢, ROI +27%39% of 3845 at avg 42¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢17% (won 11% of 1183)11% (won 80% of 61)29% (won 11% of 465)53% (won 3% of 2055)
Entries 30–50¢24% (won 45% of 1724)35% (won 98% of 203)16% (won 40% of 255)4% (won 35% of 170)
Entries 50–70¢29% (won 66% of 2055)35% (won 100% of 201)16% (won 62% of 260)5% (won 54% of 178)
Entries 70¢ and up30% (won 91% of 2092)20% (won 100% of 115)39% (won 94% of 637)38% (won 89% of 1442)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

8 on the same side, 6 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Market0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465BreakTheBankFlaznorpHaradwaith
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
opposite sides · consensus No
—No $407K—Yes $66
Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
No $1.4KYes $78K——
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $76K—No $2.1K
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Rinderknech
opposite sides · consensus Ben Shelton
Arthur Rinderknech $2—Ben Shelton $4.2K—
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $27—No $177
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 South Carolina Senate election?
opposite sides · consensus Yes
—Yes $50—No $1
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $22K—Yes $5
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $16K—Yes $12
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
—No $12K—No $99
Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus Yes
—Yes $3.5K—Yes $38
Will Tottenham win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?
same side · consensus No
—Yes $1.6K—Yes $2
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
same side · consensus No
—No $1.0K—No $350
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus No
Yes $128——Yes $6
Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $37——Yes $13