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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | GingerMcKenna | ndb1 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (547–663, n=1210) | 30% (1435–3367, n=4802) | 66% (877–458, n=1335) | 47% (14377–16003, n=30380) |
| Consensus PnL | $11.0M | $33K | $4.1M | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #404 | PM monthly #12 | PM monthly #22 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 65% (42 of 65 open) | 63% (64 of 101 open) | 70% (28 of 40 open) | 58% (56 of 97 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| Weakest topic | — | Tech −3 pts, n=303 | NFL −10 pts, n=132 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 563 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 38% of 2650 at avg 39¢, ROI −2% | 64% of 1267 at avg 64¢, ROI +4% | 94% of 25801 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 10% (won 81% of 57) | 59% (won 2% of 1554) | 13% (won 16% of 160) | 10% (won 57% of 2606) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 36% (won 98% of 201) | 4% (won 28% of 100) | 20% (won 40% of 253) | 22% (won 94% of 5665) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 99% of 196) | 4% (won 76% of 105) | 24% (won 57% of 310) | 36% (won 99% of 9185) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 19% (won 100% of 109) | 34% (won 98% of 891) | 43% (won 93% of 544) | 32% (won 100% of 8345) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 12 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.