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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BreakTheBank | joseph00677 | mildwindow27 | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 45% (573–710, n=1283) | 45% (10–12, n=22) | 36% (5188–9183, n=14371) | 48% (14128–15613, n=29741) |
| Consensus PnL | $7.9M | $5.3M | -$149K | $14.8M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #3 | PM monthly #2 | PM monthly #336 | PM monthly #29 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (24 of 29 open) | no open consensus position | 56% (607 of 1077 open) | 58% (19 of 33 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | Weather −4 pts, n=1229 | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 97% of 580 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% | 59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31% | 42% of 4985 at avg 45¢, ROI −2% | 94% of 25370 at avg 59¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 80% of 61) | 12% (won 0% of 2) | 54% (won 1% of 2673) | 10% (won 57% of 2538) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 35% (won 98% of 203) | 6% (won 0% of 1) | 2% (won 43% of 124) | 22% (won 94% of 5565) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 35% (won 100% of 201) | 65% (won 73% of 11) | 4% (won 55% of 214) | 36% (won 99% of 9017) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 20% (won 100% of 115) | 18% (won 67% of 3) | 40% (won 96% of 1974) | 33% (won 100% of 8250) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 13 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.