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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PMTraderAdam | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 83% (693–142, n=835) | 48% (12899–14013, n=26912) | 45% (537–647, n=1184) | 68% (43–20, n=63) |
| Consensus PnL | $29K | $13.4M | $10.6M | $5.8M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #1 | was PM monthly #24 |
| Sides with the consensus | 88% (46 of 52 open) | 67% (6 of 9 open) | 73% (78 of 107 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Mentions −5 pts, n=42 | — | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 |
| Settled positions, side won | 81% of 932 at avg 76¢, ROI +3% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 11% (won 17% of 106) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 3% (won 17% of 6) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 6% (won 50% of 60) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 29% (won 56% of 62) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 10% (won 71% of 92) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 54% (won 51% of 115) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 72% (won 96% of 674) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 14% (won 86% of 29) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | PMTraderAdam | RN1 | BreakTheBank | beachboy4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $3.3K | — | No $202K | — |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.4K | — | Yes $77K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.1K | — | Yes $39K | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $1.6K | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1.6K | — | Yes $28K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $788 | — | No $11K | — |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House opposite sides · consensus No | No $5.7K | — | Yes $1.4K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus No | No $3 | — | No $607 | — |