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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| PaddyAlpha | RN1 | CORGII | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 68% (541–258, n=799) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) | 62% (393–245, n=638) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) |
| Consensus PnL | $22K | $13.4M | $4.5M | $10.6M |
| Tracked as | Hand-picked | PM monthly #24 + pinned | PM monthly #68 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | 60% (67 of 112 open) | 58% (90 of 155 open) | 0% (0 of 4 open) | 72% (79 of 110 open) |
| Strongest topics |
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| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 82% of 928 at avg 78¢, ROI 0% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% | 98% of 399 at avg 46¢, ROI +55% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 16% (won 10% of 146) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) | 9% (won 92% of 36) | 10% (won 85% of 53) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 3% (won 67% of 27) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) | 56% (won 99% of 223) | 36% (won 98% of 192) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 6% (won 79% of 52) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) | 33% (won 100% of 133) | 35% (won 99% of 187) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 76% (won 97% of 703) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) | 2% (won 100% of 7) | 20% (won 100% of 107) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | PaddyAlpha | RN1 | CORGII | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Steelers (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Browns | — | Steelers $1.9K | — | Browns $297K |
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | Steelers $6.0K | — | Browns $255K |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $12K | — | Cardinals $59K |
| Will Republicans win Iowa, Kansas, and Ohio, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, and Texas? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $25 | — | — | Yes $18K |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | Jets $423 | — | Raiders $17K |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | Buccaneers $2.7K | — | Falcons $8.6K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | Cowboys $1.4K | — | Cardinals $3.0K |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | Bills $22K | — | Bills $378K |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $4.3K | — | Raiders $104K |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) same side · consensus Ravens | — | Bills $18K | — | Bills $51K |
| Spread: Celtics (-6.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $228 | — | Magic $51K |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | Raiders $2.7K | — | Raiders $24K |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | Jaguars $1.1K | — | Jaguars $20K |
| Spread: Celtics (-8.5) same side · consensus Magic | — | Magic $161 | — | Magic $13K |