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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| flawfence | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | primm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (260–241, n=501) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 50% (941–941, n=1882) |
| Consensus PnL | $910K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $3.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #34 | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #181 |
| Sides with the consensus | 54% (58 of 108 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 72% (77 of 107 open) | 62% (18 of 29 open) |
| Strongest topics |
| |||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 88% of 312 at avg 57¢, ROI +30% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 99% of 883 at avg 50¢, ROI +51% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 18% (won 53% of 55) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 5% (won 93% of 43) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 20% (won 94% of 63) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 41% (won 99% of 366) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 28% (won 93% of 86) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 49% (won 99% of 433) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 35% (won 99% of 108) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 5% (won 100% of 41) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
7 on the same side, 9 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | flawfence | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | primm |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $1.4K | — | No $252K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $5.7K | — | No $88K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-3.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $51K | Ravens $696 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $7.3K | — | No $35K | — |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $4.4K | — | No $21K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | — | Raiders $24K | Jets $284 |
| Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | No $93 | — | Yes $4.1K | — |
| Spread: Bills (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Ravens | — | — | Bills $2.1K | Ravens $376 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus No | Yes $738 | — | No $747 | — |
| Ravens vs. Bills same side · consensus Bills | — | — | Bills $378K | Bills $395 |
| Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $4.5K | — | Yes $72K | — |
| Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $25K | — | Yes $51K | — |
| Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $576 | — | Yes $38K | — |
| Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | No $3 | — | No $24K | — |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $3.9K | — | Yes $2.3K | — |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) same side · consensus Cowboys | — | — | Cardinals $3.0K | Cardinals $1.1K |