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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| paddaa | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 52% (290–269, n=559) | 68% (43–20, n=63) | 45% (526–640, n=1166) | 48% (12823–13908, n=26731) |
| Consensus PnL | $211K | $5.8M | $10.6M | $13.4M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #36 + pinned | was PM monthly #24 | PM monthly #1 | PM monthly #24 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | 63% (54 of 86 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 72% (74 of 103 open) | 64% (98 of 152 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| ||
| Weakest topic | Elections −2 pts, n=167 | NBA −6 pts, n=92 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 47% of 930 at avg 44¢, ROI +2% | 57% of 212 at avg 54¢, ROI +3% | 98% of 539 at avg 53¢, ROI +41% | 94% of 24664 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 43% (won 9% of 401) | 3% (won 17% of 6) | 10% (won 85% of 53) | 10% (won 56% of 2534) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 16% (won 46% of 148) | 29% (won 56% of 62) | 36% (won 98% of 192) | 22% (won 94% of 5497) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 72% of 101) | 54% (won 51% of 115) | 35% (won 99% of 187) | 36% (won 99% of 8897) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 30% (won 94% of 280) | 14% (won 86% of 29) | 20% (won 100% of 107) | 31% (won 100% of 7736) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
6 on the same side, 7 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | paddaa | beachboy4 | BreakTheBank | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Browns vs. Steelers opposite sides · consensus Steelers | — | — | Browns $255K | Steelers $5.5K |
| Raiders vs. Jets opposite sides · consensus Raiders | — | — | Raiders $171K | Jets $192 |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys opposite sides · consensus Cowboys | — | — | Cardinals $59K | Cowboys $11K |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | Yes $5.1K | — | No $35K | — |
| Spread: Raiders (-1.5) opposite sides · consensus Jets | — | — | Raiders $17K | Jets $400 |
| Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5) opposite sides · consensus Buccaneers | — | — | Falcons $8.6K | Buccaneers $1.9K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-6.5) opposite sides · consensus Cardinals | — | — | Cardinals $3.0K | Cowboys $1.4K |
| Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? same side · consensus No | No $8.7K | — | No $411K | — |
| Spread: Jets (-1.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | — | Raiders $104K | Raiders $2.3K |
| Spread: Cowboys (-7.5) same side · consensus Cardinals | — | — | Cardinals $35K | Cardinals $714 |
| Spread: Jets (-2.5) same side · consensus Raiders | — | — | Raiders $24K | Raiders $1.1K |
| Spread: Jaguars (-10.5) same side · consensus Jaguars | — | — | Jaguars $20K | Jaguars $643 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $190 | Yes $4.2K | — | — |