Hersonissos 3: Robin Bertrand vs Henry Searle

13 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Henry Searle (52%) · Henry Searle at 89¢ · $99K held · ends Nov 18

Robin Bertrand12¢Henry Searle88¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Henry Searle

Consensus Traders

Henry Searle 52%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$98.6K

Combined PnL

$351.48

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 88.5¢

-1% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralHenry Searle at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Henry Searle

13 of 25 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Robin Bertrand12%

Henry Searle89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Henry Searle13 traders

Total Value$84.6K

Total Shares96,413

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Robin Bertrand12 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares83,195

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Henry Searle — 52%Robin Bertrand — 48%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Henry Searle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHenry Searle 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedHenry Searle 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Henry Searle 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Woaifacai	Henry Searleavg 90¢	$80.1K	$77.9K	$-2.2K	62% 220-135 (355)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Robin Bertrandavg 10¢	$4.9K	$6.1K	+$1.2K	51% 3697-3538 (7235)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Robin Bertrandavg 11.2¢	$2.9K	$3.3K	+$348.54	53% 1763-1567 (3330)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Henry Searleavg 87.8¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$46.96	51% 1779-1735 (3514)
└ Henry Searle leg	Henry Searleavg 87.8¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$5.2
└ Robin Bertrand leg	Robin Bertrandavg 11.5¢	$570.3	$622.45	+$52.15
65 6512395314597884	Henry Searleavg 72¢	$1.5K	$1.8K	+$348.41	50% 3271-3222 (6493)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Henry Searleavg 71¢	$830	$1.0K	+$170	14% 136-820 (956)
PA Paul973973	Henry Searleavg 88¢	$1,000	$994.32	-$5.68	41% 44-64 (108)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Henry Searleavg 69¢	$872.78	$792.29	+$212.5	48% 1202-1284 (2486)
└ Henry Searle leg	Henry Searleavg 69¢	$484.51	$628.46	+$197.64
└ Robin Bertrand leg	Robin Bertrandavg 10.1¢	$158.35	$163.83	+$14.86
LI Limousin	Henry Searleavg 87.9¢	$774.84	$771.61	-$3.23	30% 358-853 (1211)
LI LightParadox	Henry Searleavg 76¢	$630.46	$704.46	+$94.96	30% 358-845 (1203)
latvian.demon	Henry Searleavg 90.2¢	$541	$525	-$16	4% 19-429 (448)
TH thirdt1meARB<$100	Robin Bertrandavg 11.3¢	$695.37	$440.48	+$73.32	43% 109-144 (253)
└ Robin Bertrand leg	Robin Bertrandavg 11.3¢	$246.73	$228.87	-$16.49
└ Henry Searle leg	Henry Searleavg 71¢	$167.86	$211.6	+$89.81
tradecraftCTR	Robin Bertrandavg 10¢	$300	$375	+$75	19% 145-607 (752)
TRCMCTR	Robin Bertrandavg 10¢	$300	$375	+$75	10% 49-426 (475)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Henry Searleavg 83.2¢	$296.72	$296.97	+$0.25	56% 3835-3004 (6839)
VeryLucky888	Henry Searleavg 72.6¢	$311.61	$173.73	+$5.93	52% 422-389 (811)
0xheavy888	Henry Searleavg 71.3¢	$155.46	$161.32	+$5.86	56% 185-144 (329)
machinelearned	Henry Searleavg 71¢	$121.5	$150	+$28.5	39% 458-724 (1182)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Robin Bertrandavg 12¢	$82.58	$86.02	+$3.44	31% 363-824 (1187)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Robin Bertrandavg 11.7¢	$67.2	$71.73	+$4.53	30% 361-847 (1208)
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Robin Bertrandavg 13.2¢	$339.99	$60.58	+$39.82	23% 108-368 (476)
EU Eulhunter<$100	Henry Searleavg 70¢	$30.84	$38.44	+$7.6	49% 90-95 (185)
RN1CTR<$100	Robin Bertrandavg 25¢	$27.79	$29.45	+$1.67	57% 3991-3004 (6995)
PA Pan9X<$100	Henry Searleavg 74¢	$25.9	$25.9	+$0	49% 629-666 (1295)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Robin Bertrandavg 27.1¢	$26.52	$24.98	-$1.54	37% 325-557 (882)

Woaifacai

Henry Searle

Invested

$80,124.02

Value

$77.9K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

62%

220-135 (355)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$4,861.48

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

3697-3538 (7235)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$2,937.09

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$348.54

Record

53%

1763-1567 (3330)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$2,322.35

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$46.96

Record

51%

1779-1735 (3514)

Both legs:

Henry Searle$1,752.0587.8¢-$5.2

Robin Bertrand$570.311.5¢+$52.15

6512395314597884

Henry Searle

Invested

$1,465.34

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$348.41

Record

50%

3271-3222 (6493)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Henry Searle

Invested

$830

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$170

Record

14%

136-820 (956)

Paul973973

Henry Searle

Invested

$1,000

Value

$994.32

PnL

-$5.68

Record

41%

44-64 (108)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$872.78

Value

$792.29

PnL

+$212.5

Record

48%

1202-1284 (2486)

Both legs:

Henry Searle$484.5169¢+$197.64

Robin Bertrand$158.3510.1¢+$14.86

Limousin

Henry Searle

Invested

$774.84

Value

$771.61

PnL

-$3.23

Record

30%

358-853 (1211)

LightParadox

Henry Searle

Invested

$630.46

Value

$704.46

PnL

+$94.96

Record

30%

358-845 (1203)

latvian.demon

Henry Searle

Invested

$541

Value

$525

PnL

-$16

Record

19-429 (448)

thirdt1meARB<$100

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$695.37

Value

$440.48

PnL

+$73.32

Record

43%

109-144 (253)

Both legs:

Robin Bertrand$246.7311.3¢-$16.49

Henry Searle$167.8671¢+$89.81

tradecraftCTR

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$300

Value

$375

PnL

+$75

Record

19%

145-607 (752)

TRCMCTR

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$300

Value

$375

PnL

+$75

Record

10%

49-426 (475)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Henry Searle

Invested

$296.72

Value

$296.97

PnL

+$0.25

Record

56%

3835-3004 (6839)

VeryLucky888

Henry Searle

Invested

$311.61

Value

$173.73

PnL

+$5.93

Record

52%

422-389 (811)

0xheavy888

Henry Searle

Invested

$155.46

Value

$161.32

PnL

+$5.86

Record

56%

185-144 (329)

machinelearned

Henry Searle

Invested

$121.5

Value

$150

PnL

+$28.5

Record

39%

458-724 (1182)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$82.58

Value

$86.02

PnL

+$3.44

Record

31%

363-824 (1187)

VenusianCTR<$100

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$67.2

Value

$71.73

PnL

+$4.53

Record

30%

361-847 (1208)

thestingsnakeCTR

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$339.99

Value

$60.58

PnL

+$39.82

Record

23%

108-368 (476)

Eulhunter<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$30.84

Value

$38.44

PnL

+$7.6

Record

49%

90-95 (185)

RN1CTR<$100

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$27.79

Value

$29.45

PnL

+$1.67

Record

57%

3991-3004 (6995)

Pan9X<$100

Henry Searle

Invested

$25.9

Value

$25.9

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

629-666 (1295)

sentrioCTR<$100

Robin Bertrand

Invested

$26.52

Value

$24.98

PnL

-$1.54

Record

37%

325-557 (882)

Research grade

NeutralHenry Searle at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Henry Searle

13 of 25 top traders (52%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Henry Searle. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHenry Searle 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedHenry Searle 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Henry Searle 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Henry Searle wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.