Bratislava 2: Matej Dodig vs Laslo Djere

18 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Matej Dodig (72%) · Matej Dodig at 100¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 13

Matej Dodig>99¢Laslo Djere<1¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Matej Dodig

Consensus Traders

Matej Dodig 72%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$37.6K

Combined PnL

$612.89

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 100¢

+21% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralMatej Dodig at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Matej Dodig

18 of 25 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Matej Dodig100%

Laslo Djere0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Matej Dodig18 traders

Total Value$31.6K

Total Shares32,522

Combined PnL+$5.2K

Laslo Djere7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares16,765

Combined PnL$-4.6K

Matej Dodig — 72%Laslo Djere — 28%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

61% of non-arb traders are on Matej Dodig. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMatej Dodig 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpMatej Dodig 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMatej Dodig 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMatej Dodig 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Matej Dodig 61% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Matej Dodigavg 74.5¢	$7.0K	$8.7K	+$1.7K	50% 1594-1623 (3217)
LhordGryffin	Matej Dodigavg 99.9¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	+$2.72	99% 1181-15 (1196)
MR MrBently	Matej Dodigavg 52.6¢	$5.4K	$3.7K	+$4.8K	52% 602-549 (1151)
65 6512395314597884	Matej Dodigavg 94.8¢	$5.0K	$3.5K	$-1.5K	51% 4823-4685 (9508)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Matej Dodigavg 89.3¢	$3.1K	$2.4K	-$739.31	49% 1537-1615 (3152)
└ Matej Dodig leg	Matej Dodigavg 89.3¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$355.49
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 40.1¢	$1.3K	$889.46	-$383.82
LI Limousin	Matej Dodigavg 91.4¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	-$80.23	51% 1635-1545 (3180)
PA Paul973973	Matej Dodigavg 95.2¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$26.43	88% 1050-137 (1187)
RN1	Matej Dodigavg 95.8¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$25.14	53% 61729-54036 (115765)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 44.6¢	$2.4K	$1.4K	-$452.03	58% 47033-33917 (80950)
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 44.6¢	$1.5K	$966.92	-$558.59
└ Matej Dodig leg	Matej Dodigavg 53¢	$297.24	$403.8	+$106.56
TH thestingsnake	Matej Dodigavg 64.2¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	+$22.11	60% 4477-2988 (7465)
38 38791873984189	Matej Dodigavg 91.2¢	$1.6K	$1.2K	-$120.17	48% 61871-66733 (128604)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Laslo Djereavg 48.2¢	$1.8K	$1.0K	-$746.5	46% 1661-1945 (3606)
FL Flaznorp	Matej Dodigavg 78.4¢	$849.35	$1.0K	+$179.12	51% 26315-24941 (51256)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Laslo Djereavg 35.8¢	$2.1K	$955.85	$-1.1K	50% 1582-1596 (3178)
└ Laslo Djere leg	Laslo Djereavg 35.8¢	$1.8K	$691.6	$-1.1K
└ Matej Dodig leg	Matej Dodigavg 81.8¢	$249.66	$264.26	+$14.6
1L 1lovejump	Matej Dodigavg 90.1¢	$1.7K	$906.33	+$92.43	53% 807-715 (1522)
OM omnibus-076daa	Matej Dodigavg 68.2¢	$425.15	$448.97	+$23.82	50% 21344-21627 (42971)
SE sentrioCTR	Laslo Djereavg 2¢	$22.81	$285.11	+$261.43	50% 26084-25740 (51824)
CI cigarettes<$100	Matej Dodigavg 97.3¢	$61.3	$62.97	+$1.67	53% 23824-20966 (44790)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Matej Dodigavg 93.5¢	$45.77	$47.53	+$1.76	52% 14581-13270 (27851)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Matej Dodigavg 84.6¢	$46.53	$39.6	-$6.93	57% 19366-14337 (33703)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 47.2¢	$23.89	$15.6	-$8.29	51% 6438-6218 (12656)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Laslo Djereavg 45¢	$37.44	$14.2	-$2.24	54% 10087-8472 (18559)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Laslo Djereavg 28.7¢	$6.9K	$6	$-4.1K	42% 8022-11209 (19231)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Matej Dodigavg 97¢	$4.85	$5	+$0.15	34% 19419-36966 (56385)
DV dv-pm<$100	Matej Dodigavg 54¢	$3.24	$4.35	+$1.11	48% 3352-3568 (6920)

Venusian

Matej Dodig

Invested

$6,980.32

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

50%

1594-1623 (3217)

LhordGryffin

Matej Dodig

Invested

$5,432.87

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$2.72

Record

99%

1181-15 (1196)

MrBently

Matej Dodig

Invested

$5,377.47

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

52%

602-549 (1151)

6512395314597884

Matej Dodig

Invested

$4,963.62

Value

$3.5K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

51%

4823-4685 (9508)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Matej Dodig

Invested

$3,111.62

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$739.31

Record

49%

1537-1615 (3152)

Both legs:

Matej Dodig$1,838.3489.3¢-$355.49

Laslo Djere$1,273.2840.1¢-$383.82

Limousin

Matej Dodig

Invested

$2,437.78

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$80.23

Record

51%

1635-1545 (3180)

Paul973973

Matej Dodig

Invested

$1,503.75

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$26.43

Record

88%

1050-137 (1187)

RN1

Matej Dodig

Invested

$1,423.16

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$25.14

Record

53%

61729-54036 (115765)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$2,431.38

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$452.03

Record

58%

47033-33917 (80950)

Both legs:

Laslo Djere$1,539.1244.6¢-$558.59

Matej Dodig$297.2453¢+$106.56

thestingsnake

Matej Dodig

Invested

$1,336.64

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$22.11

Record

60%

4477-2988 (7465)

38791873984189

Matej Dodig

Invested

$1,574.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$120.17

Record

48%

61871-66733 (128604)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Laslo Djere

Invested

$1,778.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$746.5

Record

46%

1661-1945 (3606)

Flaznorp

Matej Dodig

Invested

$849.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$179.12

Record

51%

26315-24941 (51256)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$2,090.31

Value

$955.85

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

50%

1582-1596 (3178)

Both legs:

Laslo Djere$1,840.6635.8¢$-1.1K

Matej Dodig$249.6681.8¢+$14.6

1lovejump

Matej Dodig

Invested

$1,685.39

Value

$906.33

PnL

+$92.43

Record

53%

807-715 (1522)

omnibus-076daa

Matej Dodig

Invested

$425.15

Value

$448.97

PnL

+$23.82

Record

50%

21344-21627 (42971)

sentrioCTR

Laslo Djere

Invested

$22.81

Value

$285.11

PnL

+$261.43

Record

50%

26084-25740 (51824)

cigarettes<$100

Matej Dodig

Invested

$61.3

Value

$62.97

PnL

+$1.67

Record

53%

23824-20966 (44790)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Matej Dodig

Invested

$45.77

Value

$47.53

PnL

+$1.76

Record

52%

14581-13270 (27851)

BillBenter2026<$100

Matej Dodig

Invested

$46.53

Value

$39.6

PnL

-$6.93

Record

57%

19366-14337 (33703)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$23.89

Value

$15.6

PnL

-$8.29

Record

51%

6438-6218 (12656)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Laslo Djere

Invested

$37.44

Value

$14.2

PnL

-$2.24

Record

54%

10087-8472 (18559)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Laslo Djere

Invested

$6,949.97

Value

PnL

$-4.1K

Record

42%

8022-11209 (19231)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Matej Dodig

Invested

$4.85

Value

PnL

+$0.15

Record

34%

19419-36966 (56385)

dv-pm<$100

Matej Dodig

Invested

$3.24

Value

$4.35

PnL

+$1.11

Record

48%

3352-3568 (6920)

Research grade

NeutralMatej Dodig at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Matej Dodig

18 of 25 top traders (72%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

61% of non-arb traders are on Matej Dodig. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleMatej Dodig 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpMatej Dodig 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrMatej Dodig 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedMatej Dodig 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Matej Dodig 61% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Matej Dodig wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.