BNP Paribas Nordic Open: James Duckworth vs Cameron Norrie

17 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Cameron Norrie (71%) · Cameron Norrie at 70¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 16

James Duckworth31¢Cameron Norrie69¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Cameron Norrie

Consensus Traders

Cameron Norrie 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

$260.72

Smart Money Entry

68.1¢ → 69.5¢

+2% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralCameron Norrie at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cameron Norrie

17 of 24 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

James Duckworth31%

Cameron Norrie70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cameron Norrie17 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares27,259

Combined PnL+$295.76

James Duckworth7 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares7,437

Combined PnL-$35.04

Cameron Norrie — 71%James Duckworth — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 70.8¢	$5.9K	$5.7K	-$158.66	47% 2263-2572 (4835)
└ Cameron Norrie leg	Cameron Norrieavg 70.8¢	$4.6K	$4.6K	-$19.35
└ James Duckworth leg	James Duckworthavg 33¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$139.31
FL Flaznorp	Cameron Norrieavg 67.2¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$132.09	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
38 38791873984189	Cameron Norrieavg 66.8¢	$3.0K	$2.4K	+$96.53	48% 72152-77872 (150024)
VeryLucky888	Cameron Norrieavg 68.9¢	$3.7K	$2.0K	+$95.61	58% 53770-38280 (92050)
RR rrooster	Cameron Norrieavg 67¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$15	63% 1411-829 (2240)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	James Duckworthavg 29¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$27.59	46% 33770-39445 (73215)
K5 k56	Cameron Norrieavg 71¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$33.21	57% 909-677 (1586)
0xheavy888	Cameron Norrieavg 69¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$30	56% 9019-7114 (16133)
VI vibing123	Cameron Norrieavg 68.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$28.02	51% 1783-1683 (3466)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Cameron Norrieavg 70.1¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$51.39	51% 2350-2286 (4636)
LooksMaxxingx	Cameron Norrieavg 67¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10	51% 926-877 (1803)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Cameron Norrieavg 69¢	$915.81	$928.5	+$12.69	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
RN1CTR	James Duckworthavg 33¢	$482.46	$431.29	-$51.17	53% 72012-63509 (135521)
EF efntrick	Cameron Norrieavg 67.1¢	$302	$294.75	-$7.25	49% 3734-3959 (7693)
EU Eulhunter	Cameron Norrieavg 67.1¢	$189.95	$196.77	+$6.82	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
PA Pan9X	Cameron Norrieavg 66.9¢	$191.41	$166.38	+$9.47	53% 28354-25627 (53981)
DA darkumbreon88	Cameron Norrieavg 69¢	$151.52	$152.62	+$1.1	65% 2215-1212 (3427)
LI LightParadoxCTR	James Duckworthavg 32.1¢	$102	$97.01	-$4.99	45% 2662-3199 (5861)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	James Duckworthavg 32.1¢	$58.52	$51.93	-$6.59	57% 224-169 (393)
1L 1lovejump<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 68¢	$18.97	$19.01	+$0.04	53% 860-756 (1616)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	James Duckworthavg 28¢	$12.6	$13.27	+$0.67	52% 6198-5720 (11918)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 68.3¢	$10.25	$10.42	+$0.17	57% 20332-15125 (35457)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	James Duckworthavg 32¢	$6.4	$6.1	-$0.3	54% 10539-8942 (19481)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cameron Norrieavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.47	+$0.07	53% 14833-13045 (27878)
TH thestingsnakeCTR<$100	James Duckworthavg 32¢	$3.22	$2.97	-$0.25	60% 4654-3141 (7795)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$5,884.27

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$158.66

Record

47%

2263-2572 (4835)

Both legs:

Cameron Norrie$4,570.7370.8¢-$19.35

James Duckworth$1,313.5433¢-$139.31

Flaznorp

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$4,107.09

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$132.09

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

38791873984189

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$2,970.18

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$96.53

Record

48%

72152-77872 (150024)

VeryLucky888

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$3,700.41

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$95.61

Record

58%

53770-38280 (92050)

rrooster

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$2,010

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$15

Record

63%

1411-829 (2240)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$1,574.5

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$27.59

Record

46%

33770-39445 (73215)

k56

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,522.5

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$33.21

Record

57%

909-677 (1586)

0xheavy888

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,380

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$30

Record

56%

9019-7114 (16133)

vibing123

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,368.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$28.02

Record

51%

1783-1683 (3466)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,401.39

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$51.39

Record

51%

2350-2286 (4636)

LooksMaxxingx

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$1,339.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10

Record

51%

926-877 (1803)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$915.81

Value

$928.5

PnL

+$12.69

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

RN1CTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$482.46

Value

$431.29

PnL

-$51.17

Record

53%

72012-63509 (135521)

efntrick

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$302

Value

$294.75

PnL

-$7.25

Record

49%

3734-3959 (7693)

Eulhunter

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$189.95

Value

$196.77

PnL

+$6.82

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

Pan9X

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$191.41

Value

$166.38

PnL

+$9.47

Record

53%

28354-25627 (53981)

darkumbreon88

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$151.52

Value

$152.62

PnL

+$1.1

Record

65%

2215-1212 (3427)

LightParadoxCTR

James Duckworth

Invested

$102

Value

$97.01

PnL

-$4.99

Record

45%

2662-3199 (5861)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

James Duckworth

Invested

$58.52

Value

$51.93

PnL

-$6.59

Record

57%

224-169 (393)

1lovejump<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$18.97

Value

$19.01

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

860-756 (1616)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

James Duckworth

Invested

$12.6

Value

$13.27

PnL

+$0.67

Record

52%

6198-5720 (11918)

BillBenter2026<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$10.25

Value

$10.42

PnL

+$0.17

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

James Duckworth

Invested

$6.4

Value

$6.1

PnL

-$0.3

Record

54%

10539-8942 (19481)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cameron Norrie

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

14833-13045 (27878)

thestingsnakeCTR<$100

James Duckworth

Invested

$3.22

Value

$2.97

PnL

-$0.25

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

Research grade

NeutralCameron Norrie at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cameron Norrie

17 of 24 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cameron Norrie wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.