Taranto: Kilian Feldbausch vs Remy Bertola

19 of 26 top Polymarket traders hold Kilian Feldbausch (73%) · Kilian Feldbausch at 100¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 12

Kilian Feldbausch>99¢Remy Bertola<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kilian Feldbausch

Consensus Traders

Kilian Feldbausch 73%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.2K

Combined PnL

$694.74

Smart Money Entry

70.5¢ → 100¢

+42% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

19 of 26 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kilian Feldbausch100%

Remy Bertola0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kilian Feldbausch19 traders

Total Value$14.8K

Total Shares16,070

Combined PnL+$875.34

Remy Bertola7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares8,188

Combined PnL-$180.6

Kilian Feldbausch — 73%Remy Bertola — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Kilian Feldbausch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Kilian Feldbausch) and the top 1000 (21 on Remy Bertola) disagree here.

whaleKilian Feldbausch 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpRemy Bertola 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKilian Feldbausch 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedKilian Feldbausch 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Remy Bertola 57% · 21

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 78.2¢	$3.9K	$3.3K	-$656.06	51% 4753-4623 (9376)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 78.2¢	$2.3K	$2.2K	-$104.79
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 38.6¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$551.27
VE Venusian	Kilian Feldbauschavg 79.7¢	$4.0K	$3.2K	-$790.3	51% 1367-1324 (2691)
VeryLucky888	Kilian Feldbauschavg 48.6¢	$1.4K	$2.6K	+$1.2K	58% 46650-33619 (80269)
LI LightParadox	Kilian Feldbauschavg 80.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$1.31	52% 1360-1276 (2636)
38 38791873984189	Kilian Feldbauschavg 87.5¢	$2.2K	$1.7K	-$440.66	48% 61013-65836 (126849)
RN1	Kilian Feldbauschavg 63.4¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$226.79	53% 61333-53649 (114982)
MA MadridTime	Kilian Feldbauschavg 71.6¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$226.89	50% 1305-1289 (2594)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Remy Bertolaavg 11.8¢	$1.1K	$834.85	-$277.45	51% 25691-24411 (50102)
1L 1lovejump	Kilian Feldbauschavg 74.6¢	$1.2K	$830.59	+$298.64	52% 771-698 (1469)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Remy Bertolaavg 28.1¢	$665.76	$714.5	+$48.74	50% 21143-21403 (42546)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Kilian Feldbauschavg 47.4¢	$393.28	$515.49	+$122.21	42% 7984-11171 (19155)
LI Limousin	Kilian Feldbauschavg 87.3¢	$568.51	$503.09	-$65.42	53% 1404-1252 (2656)
tradecraftARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 55.5¢	$212.52	$243.2	+$30.68	51% 6329-6117 (12446)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 55.5¢	$187.56	$191.12	+$3.56
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 20.8¢	$24.96	$52.08	+$27.12
LI LilybaeumCTR	Remy Bertolaavg 50¢	$202.46	$213.56	+$11.1	61% 14344-9270 (23614)
TH thestingsnake	Kilian Feldbauschavg 63.2¢	$354.16	$149.34	+$38.76	60% 4422-2963 (7385)
CI cigarettes	Kilian Feldbauschavg 68.3¢	$100.01	$126.73	+$26.72	53% 23469-20698 (44167)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 49¢	$96.08	$90.2	-$5.88	50% 2727-2711 (5438)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 85.5¢	$81.33	$84.89	+$3.57	52% 14474-13172 (27646)
TRCMARB<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 68.5¢	$64.4	$67.13	+$2.73	55% 4051-3266 (7317)
└ Kilian Feldbausch leg	Kilian Feldbauschavg 68.5¢	$41.88	$40.97	-$0.91
└ Remy Bertola leg	Remy Bertolaavg 28.4¢	$22.52	$26.16	+$3.63
EU EulhunterCTR<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 25.7¢	$60.82	$35.29	+$36.87	54% 6264-5328 (11592)
0xheavy888<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 51¢	$30.58	$29.68	-$0.9	56% 7902-6320 (14222)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 49¢	$25.14	$24.12	-$1.03	64% 1956-1089 (3045)
SE sentrio<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 83.4¢	$21	$21.76	+$0.75	50% 25799-25489 (51288)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Kilian Feldbauschavg 52.2¢	$10.65	$14.95	+$4.29	57% 19322-14302 (33624)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Remy Bertolaavg 56.2¢	$9.89	$9.32	-$0.57	66% 24249-12365 (36614)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$3,919.77

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$656.06

Record

51%

4753-4623 (9376)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$2,314.1478.2¢-$104.79

Remy Bertola$1,605.6338.6¢-$551.27

Venusian

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$3,982.79

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$790.3

Record

51%

1367-1324 (2691)

VeryLucky888

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,427.62

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

58%

46650-33619 (80269)

LightParadox

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,860.62

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$1.31

Record

52%

1360-1276 (2636)

38791873984189

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$2,223.24

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$440.66

Record

48%

61013-65836 (126849)

RN1

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,372.4

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$226.79

Record

53%

61333-53649 (114982)

MadridTime

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,152.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$226.89

Record

50%

1305-1289 (2594)

FlaznorpCTR

Remy Bertola

Invested

$1,112.3

Value

$834.85

PnL

-$277.45

Record

51%

25691-24411 (50102)

1lovejump

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$1,223.09

Value

$830.59

PnL

+$298.64

Record

52%

771-698 (1469)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Remy Bertola

Invested

$665.76

Value

$714.5

PnL

+$48.74

Record

50%

21143-21403 (42546)

ferrariChampions2026

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$393.28

Value

$515.49

PnL

+$122.21

Record

42%

7984-11171 (19155)

Limousin

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$568.51

Value

$503.09

PnL

-$65.42

Record

53%

1404-1252 (2656)

tradecraftARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$212.52

Value

$243.2

PnL

+$30.68

Record

51%

6329-6117 (12446)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$187.5655.5¢+$3.56

Remy Bertola$24.9620.8¢+$27.12

LilybaeumCTR

Remy Bertola

Invested

$202.46

Value

$213.56

PnL

+$11.1

Record

61%

14344-9270 (23614)

thestingsnake

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$354.16

Value

$149.34

PnL

+$38.76

Record

60%

4422-2963 (7385)

cigarettes

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$100.01

Value

$126.73

PnL

+$26.72

Record

53%

23469-20698 (44167)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$96.08

Value

$90.2

PnL

-$5.88

Record

50%

2727-2711 (5438)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$81.33

Value

$84.89

PnL

+$3.57

Record

52%

14474-13172 (27646)

TRCMARB<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$64.4

Value

$67.13

PnL

+$2.73

Record

55%

4051-3266 (7317)

Both legs:

Kilian Feldbausch$41.8868.5¢-$0.91

Remy Bertola$22.5228.4¢+$3.63

EulhunterCTR<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$60.82

Value

$35.29

PnL

+$36.87

Record

54%

6264-5328 (11592)

0xheavy888<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$30.58

Value

$29.68

PnL

-$0.9

Record

56%

7902-6320 (14222)

darkumbreon88<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$25.14

Value

$24.12

PnL

-$1.03

Record

64%

1956-1089 (3045)

sentrio<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$21

Value

$21.76

PnL

+$0.75

Record

50%

25799-25489 (51288)

BillBenter2026<$100

Kilian Feldbausch

Invested

$10.65

Value

$14.95

PnL

+$4.29

Record

57%

19322-14302 (33624)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Remy Bertola

Invested

$9.89

Value

$9.32

PnL

-$0.57

Record

66%

24249-12365 (36614)

Research grade

NeutralKilian Feldbausch at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Kilian Feldbausch

19 of 26 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-26 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

45% of non-arb traders are on Kilian Feldbausch. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Kilian Feldbausch) and the top 1000 (21 on Remy Bertola) disagree here.

whaleKilian Feldbausch 60% · 5

Aligned

sharpRemy Bertola 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrKilian Feldbausch 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedKilian Feldbausch 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Remy Bertola 57% · 21

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kilian Feldbausch wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.