Hersonissos 3: Massimo Giunta vs Francesco Forti

19 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Massimo Giunta (79%) · Massimo Giunta at 93¢ · $23K held · ends Nov 16

Massimo Giunta93¢Francesco Forti7¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Massimo Giunta

Consensus Traders

Massimo Giunta 79%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$23.2K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 92.5¢

+12% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralMassimo Giunta at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Massimo Giunta

19 of 24 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Massimo Giunta93%

Francesco Forti8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Massimo Giunta19 traders

Total Value$21.2K

Total Shares23,803

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Francesco Forti5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares11,439

Combined PnL+$305.2

Massimo Giunta — 79%Francesco Forti — 21%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Massimo Giunta. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Massimo Giunta) and the top 1000 (5 on Francesco Forti) disagree here.

whaleMassimo Giunta 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMassimo Giunta 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMassimo Giunta 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Francesco Forti 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MA MadridTime	Massimo Giuntaavg 97.1¢	$10.0K	$9.4K	-$581.71	45% 2673-3235 (5908)
65 6512395314597884	Massimo Giuntaavg 66.4¢	$2.5K	$3.4K	+$899.82	51% 6099-5856 (11955)
RN1	Massimo Giuntaavg 79¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$224.95	53% 72012-63509 (135521)
VE Venusian	Massimo Giuntaavg 85.6¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$129.28	45% 2738-3312 (6050)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Francesco Fortiavg 5¢	$675.35	$1.0K	+$356.34	46% 33770-39445 (73215)
38 38791873984189	Massimo Giuntaavg 62¢	$704.95	$959.12	+$329.17	48% 72152-77872 (150024)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 79¢	$653.37	$850.61	+$197.24	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
└ Massimo Giunta leg	Massimo Giuntaavg 79¢	$479.78	$555.51	+$75.73
└ Francesco Forti leg	Francesco Fortiavg 5¢	$173.59	$295.1	+$121.51
TH thirdt1me	Massimo Giuntaavg 73.4¢	$744.36	$786.7	+$154.83	57% 224-169 (393)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Massimo Giuntaavg 76.9¢	$769.12	$755	-$14.12	51% 2350-2286 (4636)
TH thestingsnake	Massimo Giuntaavg 77.6¢	$619.97	$640.46	+$98.74	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
0xheavy888	Massimo Giuntaavg 54.2¢	$485.54	$479.49	-$6.05	56% 9019-7114 (16133)
VeryLucky888	Massimo Giuntaavg 46¢	$368	$444	+$76	58% 53770-38280 (92050)
EU Eulhunter	Massimo Giuntaavg 93¢	$393.39	$380.7	-$12.69	53% 6834-5983 (12817)
SE sentrio	Massimo Giuntaavg 79¢	$304.97	$357.09	+$52.12	51% 28817-28169 (56986)
LI LightParadox	Massimo Giuntaavg 95.2¢	$173.78	$170.61	-$3.17	45% 2662-3199 (5861)
1L 1lovejump	Massimo Giuntaavg 66.2¢	$262.46	$160.87	-$22.14	53% 860-756 (1616)
LI LimousinCTR	Francesco Fortiavg 47.2¢	$108.11	$105.27	-$1.14	46% 2762-3197 (5959)
machinelearned	Massimo Giuntaavg 65.4¢	$127.81	$102.3	-$25.52	54% 10539-8942 (19481)
EF efntrick<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 54¢	$64.8	$64.8	+$0.6	49% 3734-3959 (7693)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 55¢	$23.22	$33.81	+$10.6	53% 15728-13882 (29610)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Francesco Fortiavg 35.4¢	$26.74	$6.41	-$20.33	52% 6198-5720 (11918)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 58¢	$5.8	$5.55	-$0.25	53% 14833-13045 (27878)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Massimo Giuntaavg 54¢	$4.32	$4.44	+$0.12	57% 20332-15125 (35457)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Francesco Fortiavg 47¢	$3.76	$2.2	-$1.56	51% 6915-6568 (13483)
SC SchruteBucksCTR	Francesco Fortiavg 45.1¢	$225.69	$1.97	-$28.11	56% 1993-1542 (3535)

MadridTime

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$10,029.52

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$581.71

Record

45%

2673-3235 (5908)

6512395314597884

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$2,483.45

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$899.82

Record

51%

6099-5856 (11955)

RN1

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$1,421.7

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$224.95

Record

53%

72012-63509 (135521)

Venusian

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$1,256.28

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$129.28

Record

45%

2738-3312 (6050)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Francesco Forti

Invested

$675.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$356.34

Record

46%

33770-39445 (73215)

38791873984189

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$704.95

Value

$959.12

PnL

+$329.17

Record

48%

72152-77872 (150024)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$653.37

Value

$850.61

PnL

+$197.24

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

Both legs:

Massimo Giunta$479.7879¢+$75.73

Francesco Forti$173.595¢+$121.51

thirdt1me

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$744.36

Value

$786.7

PnL

+$154.83

Record

57%

224-169 (393)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$769.12

Value

$755

PnL

-$14.12

Record

51%

2350-2286 (4636)

thestingsnake

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$619.97

Value

$640.46

PnL

+$98.74

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

0xheavy888

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$485.54

Value

$479.49

PnL

-$6.05

Record

56%

9019-7114 (16133)

VeryLucky888

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$368

Value

$444

PnL

+$76

Record

58%

53770-38280 (92050)

Eulhunter

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$393.39

Value

$380.7

PnL

-$12.69

Record

53%

6834-5983 (12817)

sentrio

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$304.97

Value

$357.09

PnL

+$52.12

Record

51%

28817-28169 (56986)

LightParadox

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$173.78

Value

$170.61

PnL

-$3.17

Record

45%

2662-3199 (5861)

1lovejump

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$262.46

Value

$160.87

PnL

-$22.14

Record

53%

860-756 (1616)

LimousinCTR

Francesco Forti

Invested

$108.11

Value

$105.27

PnL

-$1.14

Record

46%

2762-3197 (5959)

machinelearned

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$127.81

Value

$102.3

PnL

-$25.52

Record

54%

10539-8942 (19481)

efntrick<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$64.8

Value

$64.8

PnL

+$0.6

Record

49%

3734-3959 (7693)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$23.22

Value

$33.81

PnL

+$10.6

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Francesco Forti

Invested

$26.74

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$20.33

Record

52%

6198-5720 (11918)

ameisgoat11<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$5.8

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.25

Record

53%

14833-13045 (27878)

BillBenter2026<$100

Massimo Giunta

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0.12

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Francesco Forti

Invested

$3.76

Value

$2.2

PnL

-$1.56

Record

51%

6915-6568 (13483)

SchruteBucksCTR

Francesco Forti

Invested

$225.69

Value

$1.97

PnL

-$28.11

Record

56%

1993-1542 (3535)

Research grade

NeutralMassimo Giunta at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Massimo Giunta

19 of 24 top traders (79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Massimo Giunta. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Massimo Giunta) and the top 1000 (5 on Francesco Forti) disagree here.

whaleMassimo Giunta 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrMassimo Giunta 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedMassimo Giunta 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Francesco Forti 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Massimo Giunta wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.