Knoxville: Emile Hudd vs Justin Boulais

14 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Justin Boulais (58%) · Justin Boulais at 63¢ · $132K held · ends Nov 15

Emile Hudd38¢Justin Boulais62¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Justin Boulais

Consensus Traders

Justin Boulais 58%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$131.6K

Combined PnL

$-9.3K

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 62.5¢

-6% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralJustin Boulais at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Justin Boulais

14 of 24 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Emile Hudd38%

Justin Boulais63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Emile Hudd10 traders

Total Value$46.3K

Total Shares149,253

Combined PnL$-6.0K

Justin Boulais14 traders

Total Value$83.0K

Total Shares127,856

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Emile Hudd — 42%Justin Boulais — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Emile Huddavg 34.6¢	$50.1K	$42.7K	$-7.4K	48% 121-132 (253)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Justin Boulaisavg 70¢	$35.5K	$31.7K	$-3.8K	53% 6638-5848 (12486)
RN1	Justin Boulaisavg 66.3¢	$30.3K	$30.4K	+$112.24	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
38 38791873984189	Justin Boulaisavg 60.4¢	$8.5K	$6.7K	-$406.75	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SL SlickRick123	Justin Boulaisavg 62¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$320	47% 6203-6908 (13111)
FL Flaznorp	Justin Boulaisavg 57.2¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$197.51	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
VE VenusianCTR	Emile Huddavg 44.4¢	$3.3K	$2.7K	+$1.3K	48% 2079-2257 (4336)
alpheclabs2	Justin Boulaisavg 59¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$259.71	47% 1601-1796 (3397)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Emile Huddavg 31.4¢	$1.3K	$1.5K	+$172.75	48% 2039-2213 (4252)
└ Emile Hudd leg	Emile Huddavg 31.4¢	$704.24	$762.1	+$57.86
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 55.1¢	$581.04	$695.93	+$114.89
SE sentrio	Justin Boulaisavg 70¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$64.18	51% 27916-27361 (55277)
CI cigarettes	Justin Boulaisavg 67.4¢	$842.5	$781.25	-$61.25	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
machinelearned	Justin Boulaisavg 52.2¢	$482.67	$542.69	+$60.02	54% 10221-8698 (18919)
EU Eulhunter	Justin Boulaisavg 48.5¢	$363.73	$517.7	+$164.35	53% 6776-5929 (12705)
LI LimousinARB<$100	Emile Huddavg 54.9¢	$578.09	$453.31	-$124.78	49% 2102-2190 (4292)
└ Emile Hudd leg	Emile Huddavg 54.9¢	$461.14	$285.79	-$175.35
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 46.1¢	$116.95	$167.52	+$50.57
PA Paul973973CTR	Emile Huddavg 88¢	$400	$415.91	+$15.91	89% 1104-142 (1246)
GA Gaditima	Justin Boulaisavg 68¢	$339.99	$312.49	-$27.5	47% 8606-9734 (18340)
OJ ojgCTR	Emile Huddavg 33.6¢	$161.42	$163.15	+$1.73	51% 3965-3777 (7742)
TRCMCTR	Emile Huddavg 49.4¢	$222.69	$162.04	-$60.65	55% 4121-3315 (7436)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Justin Boulaisavg 62.4¢	$127.7	$130.1	+$2.4	53% 15441-13720 (29161)
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 62.4¢	$91.85	$92	+$0.15
└ Emile Hudd leg	Emile Huddavg 35.3¢	$35.85	$38.1	+$2.25
TH thestingsnakeARB<$100	Justin Boulaisavg 60.4¢	$123.57	$120.89	+$5.92	60% 4593-3091 (7684)
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 60.4¢	$83.86	$86.76	+$3.28
└ Emile Hudd leg	Emile Huddavg 36.3¢	$33.06	$34.13	+$2.64
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0	Justin Boulaisavg 60.7¢	$103.15	$113.05	+$9.9	52% 6029-5557 (11586)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Justin Boulaisavg 40¢	$936.9	$100.8	-$272.51	48% 2032-2230 (4262)
└ Justin Boulais leg	Justin Boulaisavg 40¢	$364.56	$77.47	-$287.09
└ Emile Hudd leg	Emile Huddavg 34.3¢	$8.75	$23.33	+$14.58
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Emile Huddavg 24.2¢	$43	$39.35	+$28.95	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Emile Huddavg 24¢	$7.2	$27.45	+$20.25	49% 3711-3940 (7651)
OM omnibus-076daa	Justin Boulaisavg 76¢	$56.72	$11.21	-$45.51	50% 23433-23429 (46862)

robustmstCTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$50,096.08

Value

$42.7K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

48%

121-132 (253)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Justin Boulais

Invested

$35,505.19

Value

$31.7K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

53%

6638-5848 (12486)

RN1

Justin Boulais

Invested

$30,266.44

Value

$30.4K

PnL

+$112.24

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

38791873984189

Justin Boulais

Invested

$8,537.76

Value

$6.7K

PnL

-$406.75

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

SlickRick123

Justin Boulais

Invested

$4,960

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$320

Record

47%

6203-6908 (13111)

Flaznorp

Justin Boulais

Invested

$2,928.16

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$197.51

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

VenusianCTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$3,289.1

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

48%

2079-2257 (4336)

alpheclabs2

Justin Boulais

Invested

$2,058.48

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$259.71

Record

47%

1601-1796 (3397)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Emile Hudd

Invested

$1,285.28

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$172.75

Record

48%

2039-2213 (4252)

Both legs:

Emile Hudd$704.2431.4¢+$57.86

Justin Boulais$581.0455.1¢+$114.89

sentrio

Justin Boulais

Invested

$1,283.6

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$64.18

Record

51%

27916-27361 (55277)

cigarettes

Justin Boulais

Invested

$842.5

Value

$781.25

PnL

-$61.25

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

machinelearned

Justin Boulais

Invested

$482.67

Value

$542.69

PnL

+$60.02

Record

54%

10221-8698 (18919)

Eulhunter

Justin Boulais

Invested

$363.73

Value

$517.7

PnL

+$164.35

Record

53%

6776-5929 (12705)

LimousinARB<$100

Emile Hudd

Invested

$578.09

Value

$453.31

PnL

-$124.78

Record

49%

2102-2190 (4292)

Both legs:

Emile Hudd$461.1454.9¢-$175.35

Justin Boulais$116.9546.1¢+$50.57

Paul973973CTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$400

Value

$415.91

PnL

+$15.91

Record

89%

1104-142 (1246)

Gaditima

Justin Boulais

Invested

$339.99

Value

$312.49

PnL

-$27.5

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

ojgCTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$161.42

Value

$163.15

PnL

+$1.73

Record

51%

3965-3777 (7742)

TRCMCTR

Emile Hudd

Invested

$222.69

Value

$162.04

PnL

-$60.65

Record

55%

4121-3315 (7436)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Justin Boulais

Invested

$127.7

Value

$130.1

PnL

+$2.4

Record

53%

15441-13720 (29161)

Both legs:

Justin Boulais$91.8562.4¢+$0.15

Emile Hudd$35.8535.3¢+$2.25

thestingsnakeARB<$100

Justin Boulais

Invested

$123.57

Value

$120.89

PnL

+$5.92

Record

60%

4593-3091 (7684)

Both legs:

Justin Boulais$83.8660.4¢+$3.28

Emile Hudd$33.0636.3¢+$2.64

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0

Justin Boulais

Invested

$103.15

Value

$113.05

PnL

+$9.9

Record

52%

6029-5557 (11586)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Justin Boulais

Invested

$936.9

Value

$100.8

PnL

-$272.51

Record

48%

2032-2230 (4262)

Both legs:

Justin Boulais$364.5640¢-$287.09

Emile Hudd$8.7534.3¢+$14.58

Pan9XCTR<$100

Emile Hudd

Invested

$43

Value

$39.35

PnL

+$28.95

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

efntrickCTR<$100

Emile Hudd

Invested

$7.2

Value

$27.45

PnL

+$20.25

Record

49%

3711-3940 (7651)

omnibus-076daa

Justin Boulais

Invested

$56.72

Value

$11.21

PnL

-$45.51

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

Research grade

NeutralJustin Boulais at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Justin Boulais

14 of 24 top traders (58%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Justin Boulais wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.