Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, while the market favors Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg (57%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Orleans: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Nicolai Budkov Kjaer (75%) · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer at 43¢ · $154K held · ends Nov 16

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer43¢Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg57¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Consensus Traders

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 75%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$154.1K

Combined PnL

$7.5K

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 42.5¢

-12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNicolai Budkov Kjaer at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 57%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer43%

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer9 traders

Total Value$73.6K

Total Shares136,582

Combined PnL+$6.9K

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg3 traders

Total Value$31.2K

Total Shares67,923

Combined PnL+$599.33

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer — 75%Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNicolai Budkov Kjaer 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNicolai Budkov Kjaer 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNicolai Budkov Kjaer 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 56% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RO robustmstCTR	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 49.2¢	$63.2K	$69.3K	+$5.5K	9% 5-48 (53)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 49.1¢	$28.6K	$26.7K	$-1.8K	6% 25-409 (434)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 39.9¢	$14.9K	$17.9K	+$4.7K	30% 105-246 (351)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 39.9¢	$9.4K	$11.6K	+$2.3K
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 36.8¢	$4.6K	$6.3K	+$2.5K
RN1ARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 53.7¢	$9.7K	$9.9K	+$154.47	54% 233-201 (434)
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 53.7¢	$5.5K	$5.4K	-$127.69
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 44.5¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$282.16
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 63¢	$8.6K	$8.7K	+$10.83	52% 242-224 (466)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 38.9¢	$3.8K	$4.6K	+$823.91
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 63¢	$4.9K	$4.1K	-$813.08
LI LightParadox	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 20.8¢	$2.0K	$4.5K	+$2.4K	26% 87-252 (339)
MA MadridTimeARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 66.2¢	$5.5K	$4.4K	$-1.1K	25% 86-262 (348)
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 66.2¢	$4.8K	$3.3K	$-1.5K
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 35.5¢	$742.4	$1.1K	+$398.47
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 67.4¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$1.07	39% 41-64 (105)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 33¢	$675.25	$1.2K	+$502.42
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 67.4¢	$1.4K	$858.99	-$503.49
VE VenusianARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 77.5¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$286.1	23% 82-268 (350)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 39.4¢	$734.86	$1.1K	+$337.64
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 77.5¢	$1.4K	$758.01	-$623.74
LI LimousinARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 40.2¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$260.99	24% 90-282 (372)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 40.2¢	$932.17	$1.2K	+$295.74
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 50.7¢	$439.17	$406.78	-$34.76
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 38¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$168.57	5% 4-76 (80)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 43.1¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$46.62	55% 34-28 (62)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 43.1¢	$734.5	$842.93	+$108.44
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 68.9¢	$580.41	$425.36	-$155.05
SU suitcase6628CTR	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 20.5¢	$383.35	$1.0K	+$626.45	—
TH thirdt1meCTR	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 47.2¢	$574.09	$817.5	+$243.41	0% 0-34 (34)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 69.3¢	$859.65	$714.13	-$145.51	38% 93-154 (247)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 52.7¢	$395	$412.5	+$17.5
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 69.3¢	$464.65	$301.63	-$163.01
machinelearnedARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 71¢	$668.78	$580.27	-$88.51	44% 148-190 (338)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 46.4¢	$313.83	$307.8	-$6.03
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 71¢	$354.95	$272.46	-$82.48
OJ ojgCTR	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 34¢	$92.5	$270	+$177.5	33% 48-99 (147)
BA babybellsCTR	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 49.7¢	$197.5	$235.13	+$37.63	0% 0-93 (93)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 48.5¢	$208.36	$191.37	+$11.01	32% 68-143 (211)
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 48.5¢	$115.63	$120.49	+$4.86
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 48¢	$68.73	$70.88	+$6.15
dips.CTR	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 34¢	$69.5	$183.06	+$113.57	46% 90-106 (196)
PA pauleta23CTR	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 59.4¢	$90	$103.86	+$13.86	21% 60-222 (282)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 72¢	$126.8	$101.43	-$25.36	23% 49-165 (214)
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 72¢	$92.53	$54.62	-$37.91
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 42.1¢	$34.27	$46.82	+$12.55
LR lryyyARB<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 54¢	$92.18	$79.53	-$12.65	57% 43-32 (75)
└ Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg leg	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 54¢	$47.52	$54.12	+$6.6
└ Nicolai Budkov Kjaer leg	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 67.7¢	$44.66	$25.41	-$19.25
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Nicolai Budkov Kjaeravg 79.7¢	$49.5	$31.68	-$14.46	14% 30-180 (210)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburgavg 47¢	$1.55	$1.63	+$0.08	18% 42-190 (232)

robustmstCTR

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$63,200.93

Value

$69.3K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

5-48 (53)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$28,550.82

Value

$26.7K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

25-409 (434)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$14,856.51

Value

$17.9K

PnL

+$4.7K

Record

30%

105-246 (351)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$9,370.339.9¢+$2.3K

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$4,564.2936.8¢+$2.5K

RN1ARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$9,746.32

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$154.47

Record

54%

233-201 (434)

Both legs:

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$5,497.9253.7¢-$127.69

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$4,248.444.5¢+$282.16

FlaznorpARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$8,645.81

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$10.83

Record

52%

242-224 (466)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$3,751.9238.9¢+$823.91

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$4,893.8963¢-$813.08

LightParadox

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$2,043.09

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.4K

Record

26%

87-252 (339)

MadridTimeARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$5,532.23

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

25%

86-262 (348)

Both legs:

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$4,789.8366.2¢$-1.5K

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$742.435.5¢+$398.47

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$2,037.72

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$1.07

Record

39%

41-64 (105)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$675.2533¢+$502.42

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$1,362.4767.4¢-$503.49

VenusianARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$2,116.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$286.1

Record

23%

82-268 (350)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$734.8639.4¢+$337.64

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$1,381.7577.5¢-$623.74

LimousinARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$1,396.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$260.99

Record

24%

90-282 (372)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$932.1740.2¢+$295.74

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$439.1750.7¢-$34.76

ubetteruuuuCTR

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$1,437.13

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$168.57

Record

4-76 (80)

EulhunterARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$1,314.91

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$46.62

Record

55%

34-28 (62)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$734.543.1¢+$108.44

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$580.4168.9¢-$155.05

suitcase6628CTR

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$383.35

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$626.45

Record

—

thirdt1meCTR

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$574.09

Value

$817.5

PnL

+$243.41

Record

0-34 (34)

cigarettesARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$859.65

Value

$714.13

PnL

-$145.51

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$39552.7¢+$17.5

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$464.6569.3¢-$163.01

machinelearnedARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$668.78

Value

$580.27

PnL

-$88.51

Record

44%

148-190 (338)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$313.8346.4¢-$6.03

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$354.9571¢-$82.48

ojgCTR

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$92.5

Value

$270

PnL

+$177.5

Record

33%

48-99 (147)

babybellsCTR

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$197.5

Value

$235.13

PnL

+$37.63

Record

0-93 (93)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$208.36

Value

$191.37

PnL

+$11.01

Record

32%

68-143 (211)

Both legs:

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$115.6348.5¢+$4.86

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$68.7348¢+$6.15

dips.CTR

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$69.5

Value

$183.06

PnL

+$113.57

Record

46%

90-106 (196)

pauleta23CTR

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$90

Value

$103.86

PnL

+$13.86

Record

21%

60-222 (282)

sentrioARB<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$126.8

Value

$101.43

PnL

-$25.36

Record

23%

49-165 (214)

Both legs:

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$92.5372¢-$37.91

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$34.2742.1¢+$12.55

lryyyARB<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$92.18

Value

$79.53

PnL

-$12.65

Record

57%

43-32 (75)

Both legs:

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg$47.5254¢+$6.6

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer$44.6667.7¢-$19.25

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

Invested

$49.5

Value

$31.68

PnL

-$14.46

Record

14%

30-180 (210)

ameisgoat11<$100

Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg

Invested

$1.55

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.08

Record

18%

42-190 (232)

Research grade

NeutralNicolai Budkov Kjaer at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Sascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 57%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Nicolai Budkov Kjaer. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSascha Gueymard-Wayenburg 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNicolai Budkov Kjaer 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperNicolai Budkov Kjaer 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNicolai Budkov Kjaer 50% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 56% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nicolai Budkov Kjaer wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.