Lima: Facundo Mena vs Max Alcala Gurri

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Max Alcala Gurri (67%) · Max Alcala Gurri at 66¢ · $27K held · ends Nov 16

Facundo Mena35¢Max Alcala Gurri65¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Max Alcala Gurri

Consensus Traders

Max Alcala Gurri 67%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.3K

Combined PnL

$3.9K

Smart Money Entry

43.8¢ → 65.5¢

+49% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralMax Alcala Gurri at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Alcala Gurri

14 of 21 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Facundo Mena35%

Max Alcala Gurri66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Facundo Mena7 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares18,739

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Max Alcala Gurri14 traders

Total Value$17.9K

Total Shares27,369

Combined PnL+$5.6K

Facundo Mena — 33%Max Alcala Gurri — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Facundo Menaavg 57.3¢	$6.8K	$5.7K	$-1.0K	—
JU Justluck9	Max Alcala Gurriavg 42¢	$3.4K	$5.2K	+$1.9K	—
UB ubetteruuuu	Max Alcala Gurriavg 43.7¢	$2.7K	$4.0K	+$1.2K	—
LI Limousin	Max Alcala Gurriavg 44.4¢	$3.0K	$3.8K	+$1.1K	—
MA MadridTime	Max Alcala Gurriavg 44.3¢	$1.7K	$2.4K	+$740.26	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Facundo Menaavg 56.5¢	$3.4K	$2.3K	-$511.05	—
LI LightParadox	Max Alcala Gurriavg 41.7¢	$972.37	$1.5K	+$530.13	—
VE Venusian	Max Alcala Gurriavg 40.9¢	$306.81	$431.52	+$124.71	—
0xheavy888	Max Alcala Gurriavg 70¢	$416.5	$416.5	+$0	—
FL FlaznorpCTR	Facundo Menaavg 51.8¢	$468.94	$321.37	-$147.57	—
CI cigarettesCTR	Facundo Menaavg 54.8¢	$256.58	$264.42	+$7.84	—
alpheclabs2CTR	Facundo Menaavg 57¢	$234.27	$240.43	+$6.16	—
1L 1lovejumpCTR	Facundo Menaavg 55.4¢	$303.32	$190.31	-$32.18	—
TH thestingsnakeCTR	Facundo Menaavg 47.1¢	$263.9	$132.03	+$12.87	—
TRCMARB<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 40¢	$88.03	$92.44	+$4.41	—
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 40¢	$63.73	$66.12	+$2.39
└ Facundo Mena leg	Facundo Menaavg 54¢	$24.3	$26.33	+$2.02
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Facundo Menaavg 56.2¢	$85.67	$78.46	-$7.21	—
└ Facundo Mena leg	Facundo Menaavg 56.2¢	$63.17	$53.42	-$9.75
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 47.2¢	$22.5	$25.04	+$2.54
machinelearnedARB<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 51.7¢	$84.4	$73.2	-$11.2	—
└ Max Alcala Gurri leg	Max Alcala Gurriavg 51.7¢	$62	$49.8	-$12.2
└ Facundo Mena leg	Facundo Menaavg 56¢	$22.4	$23.4	+$1
VI vibing123<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 67¢	$48.91	$51.1	+$2.19	—
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 57.9¢	$19.4	$18.7	-$0.71	—
PA pauleta23<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 41¢	$10	$10.12	+$0.12	—
EU Eulhunter<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 48¢	$7.83	$8.07	+$0.24	—
EF efntrick<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 68¢	$6.8	$7	+$0.2	—
OJ ojg<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 53¢	$5.3	$5.75	+$0.45	—
VeryLucky888<$100	Max Alcala Gurriavg 70¢	$2.33	$2.33	-$0	—

RN1CTR

Facundo Mena

Invested

$6,764.6

Value

$5.7K

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

—

Justluck9

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$3,360

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

—

ubetteruuuu

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$2,745.4

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

—

Limousin

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$3,009.39

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

—

MadridTime

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$1,708.56

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$740.26

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Facundo Mena

Invested

$3,392.36

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$511.05

Record

—

LightParadox

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$972.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$530.13

Record

—

Venusian

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$306.81

Value

$431.52

PnL

+$124.71

Record

—

0xheavy888

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$416.5

Value

$416.5

PnL

+$0

Record

—

FlaznorpCTR

Facundo Mena

Invested

$468.94

Value

$321.37

PnL

-$147.57

Record

—

cigarettesCTR

Facundo Mena

Invested

$256.58

Value

$264.42

PnL

+$7.84

Record

—

alpheclabs2CTR

Facundo Mena

Invested

$234.27

Value

$240.43

PnL

+$6.16

Record

—

1lovejumpCTR

Facundo Mena

Invested

$303.32

Value

$190.31

PnL

-$32.18

Record

—

thestingsnakeCTR

Facundo Mena

Invested

$263.9

Value

$132.03

PnL

+$12.87

Record

—

TRCMARB<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$88.03

Value

$92.44

PnL

+$4.41

Record

—

Both legs:

Max Alcala Gurri$63.7340¢+$2.39

Facundo Mena$24.354¢+$2.02

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Facundo Mena

Invested

$85.67

Value

$78.46

PnL

-$7.21

Record

—

Both legs:

Facundo Mena$63.1756.2¢-$9.75

Max Alcala Gurri$22.547.2¢+$2.54

machinelearnedARB<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$84.4

Value

$73.2

PnL

-$11.2

Record

—

Both legs:

Max Alcala Gurri$6251.7¢-$12.2

Facundo Mena$22.456¢+$1

vibing123<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$48.91

Value

$51.1

PnL

+$2.19

Record

—

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$19.4

Value

$18.7

PnL

-$0.71

Record

—

pauleta23<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$10

Value

$10.12

PnL

+$0.12

Record

—

Eulhunter<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$7.83

Value

$8.07

PnL

+$0.24

Record

—

efntrick<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$6.8

Value

PnL

+$0.2

Record

—

ojg<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.75

PnL

+$0.45

Record

—

VeryLucky888<$100

Max Alcala Gurri

Invested

$2.33

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralMax Alcala Gurri at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Max Alcala Gurri

14 of 21 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Alcala Gurri wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.