Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alex Michelsen, while the market favors Jiri Lehecka (78%). 35 of 55 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Rolex Paris Masters: Alex Michelsen vs Jiri Lehecka

35 of 55 top Polymarket traders hold Alex Michelsen (64%) · Alex Michelsen at 22¢ · $126K held · ends Nov 9

Alex Michelsen22¢Jiri Lehecka78¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Alex Michelsen

Consensus Traders

Alex Michelsen 64%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$126.3K

Combined PnL

$94.78

Smart Money Entry

46.7¢ → 22¢

-53% since entry · 35 traders

Research grade

AvoidAlex Michelsen at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

35 of 55 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Jiri Lehecka 78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed35 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alex Michelsen22%

Jiri Lehecka78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alex Michelsen35 traders

Total Value$57.8K

Total Shares132,032

Combined PnL$-6.1K

Jiri Lehecka20 traders

Total Value$67.1K

Total Shares84,284

Combined PnL+$6.2K

Alex Michelsen — 64%Jiri Lehecka — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Alex Michelsen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlex Michelsen 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrAlex Michelsen 79% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlex Michelsen 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Alex Michelsen 82% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KK kkookkooCTR	Alex Michelsenavg 58.6¢	$17.9K	$16.9K	-$941.56	51% 623-604 (1227)
65 6512395314597884	Jiri Leheckaavg 62.8¢	$13.4K	$14.8K	+$1.4K	51% 4502-4378 (8880)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Jiri Leheckaavg 54.8¢	$10.1K	$10.9K	+$838.93	52% 14113-12889 (27002)
RN1	Jiri Leheckaavg 54.8¢	$8.7K	$10.4K	+$1.7K	53% 59009-51318 (110327)
FA fastball67	Jiri Leheckaavg 58¢	$8.7K	$8.8K	-$75	49% 133-139 (272)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Alex Michelsenavg 42¢	$7.3K	$7.2K	-$87.5	46% 403-475 (878)
RE redvinnyCTR	Alex Michelsenavg 62.9¢	$6.2K	$6.0K	-$240.73	75% 1555-510 (2065)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Jiri Leheckaavg 51.9¢	$5.1K	$5.9K	+$1.9K	52% 6707-6232 (12939)
C6 C63AMGCTR	Alex Michelsenavg 47.9¢	$5.3K	$5.1K	-$151.78	72% 880-338 (1218)
FL Flaznorp	Jiri Leheckaavg 73.8¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$222.19	51% 23396-22163 (45559)
sapupu	Jiri Leheckaavg 60.1¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$141.25	55% 89-74 (163)
0X 0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR	Alex Michelsenavg 47.2¢	$3.6K	$3.1K	-$474.93	38% 518-831 (1349)
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR	Alex Michelsenavg 25.5¢	$4.0K	$3.1K	-$952.59	24% 102-321 (423)
NO NotJump	Jiri Leheckaavg 55.8¢	$2.5K	$3.1K	+$574.96	44% 10214-13265 (23479)
38 38791873984189CTR	Alex Michelsenavg 46¢	$675.22	$2.6K	-$237.79	48% 14365-15858 (30223)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR	Alex Michelsenavg 41¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$0	51% 130-126 (256)
TG tghj20CTR	Alex Michelsenavg 48.7¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$52.96	46% 64-74 (138)
1L 1lovejump	Jiri Leheckaavg 60¢	$4.7K	$1.8K	+$156.05	52% 700-639 (1339)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Alex Michelsenavg 46.4¢	$3.5K	$1.4K	$-2.1K	50% 20158-20505 (40663)
0X 0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR	Alex Michelsenavg 41¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	54% 196-167 (363)
StudyPrediction	Jiri Leheckaavg 57¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$40	53% 4652-4063 (8715)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Jiri Leheckaavg 67.2¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$195.34	54% 6050-5056 (11106)
└ Jiri Lehecka leg	Jiri Leheckaavg 67.2¢	$723.47	$829.01	+$105.54
└ Alex Michelsen leg	Alex Michelsenavg 45¢	$615.33	$314.45	-$300.88
VeryLucky888CTR	Alex Michelsenavg 40.8¢	$3.0K	$1.1K	+$30.83	58% 44584-32454 (77038)
SH shaw	Jiri Leheckaavg 56¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$0	53% 2311-2070 (4381)
RR rrooster	Jiri Leheckaavg 55¢	$1.1K	$1.0K	-$50	63% 1369-805 (2174)

kkookkooCTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$17,872.75

Value

$16.9K

PnL

-$941.56

Record

51%

623-604 (1227)

6512395314597884

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$13,424.14

Value

$14.8K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

51%

4502-4378 (8880)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$10,073.45

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$838.93

Record

52%

14113-12889 (27002)

RN1

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$8,689.97

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

53%

59009-51318 (110327)

fastball67

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$8,700

Value

$8.8K

PnL

-$75

Record

49%

133-139 (272)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$7,350

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$87.5

Record

46%

403-475 (878)

redvinnyCTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$6,246.43

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$240.73

Record

75%

1555-510 (2065)

CandleHammerDrums

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$5,102.89

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

52%

6707-6232 (12939)

C63AMGCTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$5,266.79

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$151.78

Record

72%

880-338 (1218)

Flaznorp

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$3,977.78

Value

$3.8K

PnL

-$222.19

Record

51%

23396-22163 (45559)

sapupu

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$3,296.08

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$141.25

Record

55%

89-74 (163)

0xf12f7688A0bC8Cc744eF871f70B74c16a976b30f-1779780453239CTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$3,594.5

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$474.93

Record

38%

518-831 (1349)

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3CTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$4,049.7

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$952.59

Record

24%

102-321 (423)

NotJump

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$2,509.95

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$574.96

Record

44%

10214-13265 (23479)

38791873984189CTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$675.22

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$237.79

Record

48%

14365-15858 (30223)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516CTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$2,460

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

130-126 (256)

tghj20CTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$2,066.4

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$52.96

Record

46%

64-74 (138)

1lovejump

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$4,731.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$156.05

Record

52%

700-639 (1339)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$3,534.04

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

50%

20158-20505 (40663)

0xDd9D902e3Cdaf7eE29Eff1Dd2902DcB40741b730-1772597907584CTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$1,230

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

196-167 (363)

StudyPrediction

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$1,139.92

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$40

Record

53%

4652-4063 (8715)

EulhunterARB<$100

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$1,338.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$195.34

Record

54%

6050-5056 (11106)

Both legs:

Jiri Lehecka$723.4767.2¢+$105.54

Alex Michelsen$615.3345¢-$300.88

VeryLucky888CTR

Alex Michelsen

Invested

$3,042.32

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$30.83

Record

58%

44584-32454 (77038)

shaw

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$1,063.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2311-2070 (4381)

rrooster

Jiri Lehecka

Invested

$1,099.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$50

Record

63%

1369-805 (2174)

Research grade

AvoidAlex Michelsen at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Alex Michelsen

35 of 55 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Jiri Lehecka 78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed35 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+58 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Mature

44h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Alex Michelsen. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlex Michelsen 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrAlex Michelsen 79% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlex Michelsen 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Alex Michelsen 82% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alex Michelsen wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.