Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Georgii Kravchenko, while the market favors Johannus Monday (74%). 11 of 22 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hersonissos 3: Johannus Monday vs Georgii Kravchenko

11 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Georgii Kravchenko (50%) · Georgii Kravchenko at 27¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 16

Johannus Monday74¢Georgii Kravchenko26¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Georgii Kravchenko

Consensus Traders

Georgii Kravchenko 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$7.68

Smart Money Entry

47.5¢ → 26.5¢

-44% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidGeorgii Kravchenko at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgii Kravchenko

11 of 22 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Johannus Monday 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Johannus Monday74%

Georgii Kravchenko27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgii Kravchenko11 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,683

Combined PnL-$20.84

Johannus Monday11 traders

Total Value$875.04

Total Shares1,346

Combined PnL+$28.52

Georgii Kravchenko — 50%Johannus Monday — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Georgii Kravchenko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Johannus Monday) and the top 1000 (10 on Georgii Kravchenko) disagree here.

whaleGeorgii Kravchenko 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrGeorgii Kravchenko 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJohannus Monday 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Georgii Kravchenko 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 47¢	$831.53	$877.87	+$46.34	58% 53792-38296 (92088)
NM NM-PCTR	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 54¢	$285.74	$298.97	+$13.23	57% 22806-16903 (39709)
TH thestingsnake	Johannus Mondayavg 54.1¢	$412.75	$298.88	-$29.12	60% 4654-3141 (7795)
GC GC-PCTR	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 54¢	$278.61	$286.21	+$7.6	57% 22656-16901 (39557)
TH thirdt1meCTR	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 34.7¢	$197.52	$139.34	-$58.18	58% 231-170 (401)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Johannus Mondayavg 49¢	$118.44	$105.14	-$13.29	50% 3073-3025 (6098)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 52.2¢	$39.81	$89.53	-$3.33	50% 24127-24236 (48363)
1L 1lovejumpARB<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 33.5¢	$136.7	$82.76	+$8.51	53% 860-756 (1616)
└ Georgii Kravchenko leg	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 33.5¢	$66.68	$50.7	-$15.98
└ Johannus Monday leg	Johannus Mondayavg 51.8¢	$22.29	$32.06	+$24.49
LI Limousin<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 45¢	$81.01	$80.09	-$0.92	46% 2784-3230 (6014)
VE Venusian<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 50.3¢	$52.34	$78.53	+$26.18	45% 2757-3338 (6095)
0xheavy888<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 48.6¢	$73.12	$65.46	-$7.66	56% 9021-7117 (16138)
PA pauleta23<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 68.7¢	$57.54	$62.43	+$4.89	65% 25736-13843 (39579)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 66.9¢	$48.87	$54.39	+$5.51	57% 20332-15125 (35457)
machinelearned<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 46.4¢	$36.15	$53.08	+$16.93	54% 10552-8958 (19510)
LI LightParadox<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 51.2¢	$31.82	$45.65	+$13.82	45% 2685-3222 (5907)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 54¢	$32.4	$33.6	+$0.3	49% 3736-3960 (7696)
RN1<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 39¢	$12.79	$23.77	+$10.98	53% 72043-63546 (135589)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 44¢	$12.86	$11.47	-$1.39	52% 6198-5722 (11920)
TRCMCTR<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 59.2¢	$23.69	$11	-$12.69	55% 4139-3333 (7472)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 51.7¢	$17.84	$9.15	-$8.68	52% 49502-46467 (95969)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Johannus Mondayavg 62¢	$6.44	$7.64	+$1.2	47% 2267-2575 (4842)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 32¢	$8.48	$7.02	-$1.46	48% 72180-77921 (150101)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Georgii Kravchenkoavg 50¢	$5.5	$2.91	-$2.58	53% 15728-13882 (29610)

VeryLucky888CTR

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$831.53

Value

$877.87

PnL

+$46.34

Record

58%

53792-38296 (92088)

NM-PCTR

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$285.74

Value

$298.97

PnL

+$13.23

Record

57%

22806-16903 (39709)

thestingsnake

Johannus Monday

Invested

$412.75

Value

$298.88

PnL

-$29.12

Record

60%

4654-3141 (7795)

GC-PCTR

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$278.61

Value

$286.21

PnL

+$7.6

Record

57%

22656-16901 (39557)

thirdt1meCTR

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$197.52

Value

$139.34

PnL

-$58.18

Record

58%

231-170 (401)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Johannus Monday

Invested

$118.44

Value

$105.14

PnL

-$13.29

Record

50%

3073-3025 (6098)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$39.81

Value

$89.53

PnL

-$3.33

Record

50%

24127-24236 (48363)

1lovejumpARB<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$136.7

Value

$82.76

PnL

+$8.51

Record

53%

860-756 (1616)

Both legs:

Georgii Kravchenko$66.6833.5¢-$15.98

Johannus Monday$22.2951.8¢+$24.49

Limousin<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$81.01

Value

$80.09

PnL

-$0.92

Record

46%

2784-3230 (6014)

Venusian<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$52.34

Value

$78.53

PnL

+$26.18

Record

45%

2757-3338 (6095)

0xheavy888<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$73.12

Value

$65.46

PnL

-$7.66

Record

56%

9021-7117 (16138)

pauleta23<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$57.54

Value

$62.43

PnL

+$4.89

Record

65%

25736-13843 (39579)

BillBenter2026<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$48.87

Value

$54.39

PnL

+$5.51

Record

57%

20332-15125 (35457)

machinelearned<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$36.15

Value

$53.08

PnL

+$16.93

Record

54%

10552-8958 (19510)

LightParadox<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$31.82

Value

$45.65

PnL

+$13.82

Record

45%

2685-3222 (5907)

efntrickCTR<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$32.4

Value

$33.6

PnL

+$0.3

Record

49%

3736-3960 (7696)

RN1<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$12.79

Value

$23.77

PnL

+$10.98

Record

53%

72043-63546 (135589)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$12.86

Value

$11.47

PnL

-$1.39

Record

52%

6198-5722 (11920)

TRCMCTR<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$23.69

Value

$11

PnL

-$12.69

Record

55%

4139-3333 (7472)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$17.84

Value

$9.15

PnL

-$8.68

Record

52%

49502-46467 (95969)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Johannus Monday

Invested

$6.44

Value

$7.64

PnL

+$1.2

Record

47%

2267-2575 (4842)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$8.48

Value

$7.02

PnL

-$1.46

Record

48%

72180-77921 (150101)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Georgii Kravchenko

Invested

$5.5

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$2.58

Record

53%

15728-13882 (29610)

Research grade

AvoidGeorgii Kravchenko at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Georgii Kravchenko

11 of 22 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Johannus Monday 74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Georgii Kravchenko. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Johannus Monday) and the top 1000 (10 on Georgii Kravchenko) disagree here.

whaleGeorgii Kravchenko 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrGeorgii Kravchenko 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedJohannus Monday 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Georgii Kravchenko 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgii Kravchenko wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.