Rolex Paris Masters: Tommy Paul vs Quentin Halys

26 of 42 top Polymarket traders hold Tommy Paul (62%) · Tommy Paul at 100¢ · $340K held · ends Nov 12

Tommy Paul>99¢Quentin Halys<1¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tommy Paul

Consensus Traders

Tommy Paul 62%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$339.9K

Combined PnL

$-19.2K

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 100¢

+37% since entry · 26 traders

Research grade

NeutralTommy Paul at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tommy Paul

26 of 42 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Tommy Paul100%

Quentin Halys0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tommy Paul26 traders

Total Value$301.3K

Total Shares311,481

Combined PnL+$38.0K

Quentin Halys16 traders

Total Value$28.2K

Total Shares247,641

Combined PnL$-57.1K

Tommy Paul — 62%Quentin Halys — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Tommy Paul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTommy Paul 64% · 11

Aligned

sharpTommy Paul 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrQuentin Halys 52% · 25

Diverging

Hand-pickedTommy Paul 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Tommy Paul 61% · 36

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Tommy Paulavg 64.3¢	$58.5K	$67.4K	+$8.8K	53% 6247-5528 (11775)
FE ferrariChampions2026	Tommy Paulavg 65.3¢	$40.8K	$56.5K	+$15.7K	42% 7981-11170 (19151)
99 999585	Tommy Paulavg 88.2¢	$50.3K	$50.7K	+$450.28	85% 69-12 (81)
RN1	Tommy Paulavg 65.5¢	$25.9K	$31.7K	+$5.9K	53% 61305-53625 (114930)
MA MastermoneyCTR	Quentin Halysavg 35.6¢	$61.1K	$18.9K	$-42.3K	49% 246-260 (506)
65 6512395314597884	Tommy Paulavg 79.2¢	$14.5K	$15.0K	+$531.15	51% 4751-4621 (9372)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Tommy Paulavg 74.1¢	$11.7K	$11.9K	+$199.64	52% 14323-13084 (27407)
FL Flaznorp	Tommy Paulavg 69.9¢	$10.0K	$11.6K	+$1.6K	51% 25682-24404 (50086)
DM dmoralez	Tommy Paulavg 88.6¢	$13.0K	$10.9K	-$469.27	62% 206-124 (330)
LI Limousin	Tommy Paulavg 68.6¢	$7.2K	$9.1K	+$1.9K	53% 1403-1251 (2654)
TRCM	Tommy Paulavg 73¢	$6.7K	$8.2K	+$1.5K	55% 4047-3265 (7312)
RE redvinny	Tommy Paulavg 85.9¢	$21.5K	$7.4K	+$942.08	75% 1602-531 (2133)
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Quentin Halysavg 21.7¢	$7.4K	$5.9K	$-1.5K	52% 1358-1276 (2634)
└ Tommy Paul leg	Tommy Paulavg 80.6¢	$3.6K	$4.0K	+$378.45
└ Quentin Halys leg	Quentin Halysavg 21.7¢	$3.7K	$1.9K	$-1.8K
38 38791873984189	Tommy Paulavg 75.3¢	$7.6K	$5.8K	+$472.29	48% 61012-65825 (126837)
VeryLucky888	Tommy Paulavg 74¢	$9.6K	$5.4K	+$166.87	58% 46645-33616 (80261)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Tommy Paulavg 70.1¢	$3.4K	$3.8K	+$477.27	46% 1526-1799 (3325)
└ Tommy Paul leg	Tommy Paulavg 70.1¢	$2.4K	$3.0K	+$642.61
└ Quentin Halys leg	Quentin Halysavg 13.2¢	$985.85	$820.52	-$165.33
CH ch27erCTR	Quentin Halysavg 38.1¢	$12.9K	$3.7K	$-9.2K	65% 26-14 (40)
MA MadridTime	Tommy Paulavg 83.2¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$31.97	50% 1303-1289 (2592)
EU Eulhunter	Tommy Paulavg 66.2¢	$2.3K	$2.9K	+$584.25	54% 6254-5321 (11575)
KU Kunkun111CTR	Quentin Halysavg 29.7¢	$7.0K	$2.6K	$-4.4K	46% 11-13 (24)
TH thestingsnake	Tommy Paulavg 85.3¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$108.94	60% 4420-2961 (7381)
BA Bagwell306CTR	Quentin Halysavg 24¢	$5.0K	$1.3K	+$75	57% 4223-3192 (7415)
PA Paul973973	Tommy Paulavg 87.6¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$16.49	88% 1030-134 (1164)
1L 1lovejump	Tommy Paulavg 79.1¢	$3.5K	$857.62	+$50.96	52% 770-697 (1467)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Quentin Halysavg 25¢	$1.1K	$477.91	-$608.31	69% 7197-3182 (10379)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Tommy Paul

Invested

$58,541.32

Value

$67.4K

PnL

+$8.8K

Record

53%

6247-5528 (11775)

ferrariChampions2026

Tommy Paul

Invested

$40,764.33

Value

$56.5K

PnL

+$15.7K

Record

42%

7981-11170 (19151)

999585

Tommy Paul

Invested

$50,279.69

Value

$50.7K

PnL

+$450.28

Record

85%

69-12 (81)

RN1

Tommy Paul

Invested

$25,862.06

Value

$31.7K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

53%

61305-53625 (114930)

MastermoneyCTR

Quentin Halys

Invested

$61,141.55

Value

$18.9K

PnL

$-42.3K

Record

49%

246-260 (506)

6512395314597884

Tommy Paul

Invested

$14,474.84

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$531.15

Record

51%

4751-4621 (9372)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Tommy Paul

Invested

$11,657.48

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$199.64

Record

52%

14323-13084 (27407)

Flaznorp

Tommy Paul

Invested

$10,036.91

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

25682-24404 (50086)

dmoralez

Tommy Paul

Invested

$13,016.68

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$469.27

Record

62%

206-124 (330)

Limousin

Tommy Paul

Invested

$7,222.81

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

53%

1403-1251 (2654)

TRCM

Tommy Paul

Invested

$6,689.1

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

55%

4047-3265 (7312)

redvinny

Tommy Paul

Invested

$21,469.49

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$942.08

Record

75%

1602-531 (2133)

LightParadoxARB<$100

Quentin Halys

Invested

$7,368.93

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

52%

1358-1276 (2634)

Both legs:

Tommy Paul$3,630.5280.6¢+$378.45

Quentin Halys$3,738.4121.7¢$-1.8K

38791873984189

Tommy Paul

Invested

$7,622.25

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$472.29

Record

48%

61012-65825 (126837)

VeryLucky888

Tommy Paul

Invested

$9,597.62

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$166.87

Record

58%

46645-33616 (80261)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Tommy Paul

Invested

$3,364.39

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$477.27

Record

46%

1526-1799 (3325)

Both legs:

Tommy Paul$2,378.5470.1¢+$642.61

Quentin Halys$985.8513.2¢-$165.33

ch27erCTR

Quentin Halys

Invested

$12,894.17

Value

$3.7K

PnL

$-9.2K

Record

65%

26-14 (40)

MadridTime

Tommy Paul

Invested

$2,955.95

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$31.97

Record

50%

1303-1289 (2592)

Eulhunter

Tommy Paul

Invested

$2,309.73

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$584.25

Record

54%

6254-5321 (11575)

Kunkun111CTR

Quentin Halys

Invested

$7,020.85

Value

$2.6K

PnL

$-4.4K

Record

46%

11-13 (24)

thestingsnake

Tommy Paul

Invested

$1,546.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$108.94

Record

60%

4420-2961 (7381)

Bagwell306CTR

Quentin Halys

Invested

$5,000

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$75

Record

57%

4223-3192 (7415)

Paul973973

Tommy Paul

Invested

$1,006.5

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$16.49

Record

88%

1030-134 (1164)

1lovejump

Tommy Paul

Invested

$3,474.43

Value

$857.62

PnL

+$50.96

Record

52%

770-697 (1467)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Quentin Halys

Invested

$1,086.22

Value

$477.91

PnL

-$608.31

Record

69%

7197-3182 (10379)

Research grade

NeutralTommy Paul at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Tommy Paul

26 of 42 top traders (62%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed16 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-14 pts consensus

Breadth

23 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on Tommy Paul. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTommy Paul 64% · 11

Aligned

sharpTommy Paul 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrQuentin Halys 52% · 25

Diverging

Hand-pickedTommy Paul 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Tommy Paul 61% · 36

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tommy Paul wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.