Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Max Hans Rehberg, while the market favors Trevor Svajda (77%). 11 of 23 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Charlottesville: Max Hans Rehberg vs Trevor Svajda

11 of 23 top Polymarket traders hold Max Hans Rehberg (48%) · Max Hans Rehberg at 24¢ · $33K held · ends Nov 9

Max Hans Rehberg24¢Trevor Svajda76¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Max Hans Rehberg

Consensus Traders

Max Hans Rehberg 48%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$33.3K

Combined PnL

$-5.7K

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 23.5¢

-66% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidMax Hans Rehberg at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

11 of 23 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Trevor Svajda 77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Max Hans Rehberg24%

Trevor Svajda77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Max Hans Rehberg11 traders

Total Value$12.4K

Total Shares26,867

Combined PnL$-6.6K

Trevor Svajda12 traders

Total Value$14.5K

Total Shares25,511

Combined PnL+$914.15

Max Hans Rehberg — 48%Trevor Svajda — 52%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA cavvvyCTR	Max Hans Rehbergavg 79.8¢	$8.0K	$7.8K	-$232.95	51% 18-17 (35)
AU austr	Trevor Svajdaavg 81.1¢	$6.3K	$5.0K	-$950.79	63% 590-340 (930)
CA CandleHammerDrums	Trevor Svajdaavg 34.7¢	$3.0K	$4.4K	+$1.4K	52% 6711-6252 (12963)
RN1ARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 67.6¢	$7.6K	$4.4K	$-3.3K	53% 59038-51355 (110393)
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 67.6¢	$6.7K	$2.5K	$-4.1K
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 40¢	$991.75	$1.8K	+$854.28
0X 0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3	Trevor Svajdaavg 19.2¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$180.74	24% 102-322 (424)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 32.1¢	$1.1K	$1.7K	+$672.02	44% 10222-13273 (23495)
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 25.2¢	$414.79	$1.3K	+$842.57
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 32.1¢	$635.87	$465.32	-$170.55
MA MadridTimeCTR	Max Hans Rehbergavg 57.3¢	$3.2K	$1.4K	$-1.7K	52% 830-771 (1601)
38 38791873984189	Trevor Svajdaavg 40.6¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	+$692.63	48% 14393-15903 (30296)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Max Hans Rehbergavg 72.9¢	$3.7K	$1.3K	$-2.4K	54% 906-787 (1693)
LI LimousinCTR	Max Hans Rehbergavg 59.6¢	$2.4K	$942.64	$-1.4K	56% 942-736 (1678)
FL Flaznorp	Trevor Svajdaavg 58.9¢	$1.0K	$914.05	-$102.33	51% 23399-22168 (45567)
VE VenusianCTR	Max Hans Rehbergavg 61¢	$1.5K	$725.32	-$799.27	53% 916-813 (1729)
TH thestingsnake	Trevor Svajdaavg 66.1¢	$723.15	$539.29	-$26.85	60% 4225-2826 (7051)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 51.1¢	$215.46	$249.13	+$33.67	52% 14121-12894 (27015)
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 33¢	$80.63	$187.07	+$106.45
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 51.1¢	$134.83	$62.06	-$72.77
1L 1lovejump	Trevor Svajdaavg 39.1¢	$349.44	$192.63	+$25.19	52% 702-642 (1344)
TH thatsabing0CTR	Max Hans Rehbergavg 78.9¢	$188.39	$187.53	-$0.86	92% 3024-259 (3283)
JU Justluck9	Trevor Svajdaavg 45.2¢	$109.69	$109.13	-$0.56	41% 99-140 (239)
EU EulhunterARB<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 51.2¢	$91.76	$77.66	-$14.1	54% 6054-5063 (11117)
└ Max Hans Rehberg leg	Max Hans Rehbergavg 51.2¢	$68.16	$53.87	-$14.3
└ Trevor Svajda leg	Trevor Svajdaavg 59¢	$23.6	$23.8	+$0.2
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 56.7¢	$74.24	$70.76	-$3.48	50% 20187-20523 (40710)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 56.3¢	$36.39	$39.49	+$3.1	55% 7598-6093 (13691)
VeryLucky888<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 38¢	$22.3	$22.59	+$0.29	58% 44610-32488 (77098)
poshposh<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 62¢	$15.12	$12.56	-$2.56	57% 11866-8957 (20823)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Max Hans Rehbergavg 21¢	$8.06	$11.15	-$0.11	47% 10564-11815 (22379)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Trevor Svajdaavg 77.3¢	$14.31	$10.13	-$4.18	57% 18986-14047 (33033)
SC SchruteBucks	Trevor Svajdaavg 73¢	$358.95	$7.39	+$16.79	56% 1904-1471 (3375)

cavvvyCTR

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$7,982.95

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$232.95

Record

51%

18-17 (35)

austr

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$6,263.74

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$950.79

Record

63%

590-340 (930)

CandleHammerDrums

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$2,967.22

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

52%

6711-6252 (12963)

RN1ARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$7,646.39

Value

$4.4K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

53%

59038-51355 (110393)

Both legs:

Max Hans Rehberg$6,654.6467.6¢$-4.1K

Trevor Svajda$991.7540¢+$854.28

0x7750cdd6207bda401911ad3657253af46491a3f3

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$2,081.59

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$180.74

Record

24%

102-322 (424)

NotJumpARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$1,050.66

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$672.02

Record

44%

10222-13273 (23495)

Both legs:

Trevor Svajda$414.7925.2¢+$842.57

Max Hans Rehberg$635.8732.1¢-$170.55

MadridTimeCTR

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$3,154.27

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

52%

830-771 (1601)

38791873984189

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$1,972.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$692.63

Record

48%

14393-15903 (30296)

LightParadoxCTR

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$3,655.07

Value

$1.3K

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

54%

906-787 (1693)

LimousinCTR

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$2,391.71

Value

$942.64

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

56%

942-736 (1678)

Flaznorp

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$1,016.37

Value

$914.05

PnL

-$102.33

Record

51%

23399-22168 (45567)

VenusianCTR

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$1,524.58

Value

$725.32

PnL

-$799.27

Record

53%

916-813 (1729)

thestingsnake

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$723.15

Value

$539.29

PnL

-$26.85

Record

60%

4225-2826 (7051)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$215.46

Value

$249.13

PnL

+$33.67

Record

52%

14121-12894 (27015)

Both legs:

Trevor Svajda$80.6333¢+$106.45

Max Hans Rehberg$134.8351.1¢-$72.77

1lovejump

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$349.44

Value

$192.63

PnL

+$25.19

Record

52%

702-642 (1344)

thatsabing0CTR

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$188.39

Value

$187.53

PnL

-$0.86

Record

92%

3024-259 (3283)

Justluck9

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$109.69

Value

$109.13

PnL

-$0.56

Record

41%

99-140 (239)

EulhunterARB<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$91.76

Value

$77.66

PnL

-$14.1

Record

54%

6054-5063 (11117)

Both legs:

Max Hans Rehberg$68.1651.2¢-$14.3

Trevor Svajda$23.659¢+$0.2

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$74.24

Value

$70.76

PnL

-$3.48

Record

50%

20187-20523 (40710)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$36.39

Value

$39.49

PnL

+$3.1

Record

55%

7598-6093 (13691)

VeryLucky888<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$22.3

Value

$22.59

PnL

+$0.29

Record

58%

44610-32488 (77098)

poshposh<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$15.12

Value

$12.56

PnL

-$2.56

Record

57%

11866-8957 (20823)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Max Hans Rehberg

Invested

$8.06

Value

$11.15

PnL

-$0.11

Record

47%

10564-11815 (22379)

BillBenter2026<$100

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$14.31

Value

$10.13

PnL

-$4.18

Record

57%

18986-14047 (33033)

SchruteBucks

Trevor Svajda

Invested

$358.95

Value

$7.39

PnL

+$16.79

Record

56%

1904-1471 (3375)

Research grade

AvoidMax Hans Rehberg at 24%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Max Hans Rehberg

11 of 23 top traders (48%)Underdog side (market favors Trevor Svajda 77%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Max Hans Rehberg wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance25.4%

23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$293.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

393.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.