Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Tung-Lin Wu — but Chun-Chien Hou won instead.
Taipei: Tung-Lin Wu vs Chun-Chien Hou
Resolved Chun-Chien Hou. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Tung-Lin Wu. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
23
Tung-Lin Wu 77%
1 arb excluded
$5.2K
$-3.1K
Smart Money Signal
18 of 23 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Tung-Lin Wuavg 43.3¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.7K | 53% 58869-51174 (110043) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Chun-Chien Houavg 57¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | +$1.3K | 51% 1711-1637 (3348) |
 88MCTR | Tung-Lin Wuavg 55.2¢ | $1.7K | — | $-1.7K | 42% 806-1103 (1909) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 72.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$16.29 | 51% 23350-22134 (45484) |
| └ Chun-Chien Hou leg | Chun-Chien Houavg 45.1¢ | $813.26 | $1.8K | +$990.98 | |
| └ Tung-Lin Wu leg | Tung-Lin Wuavg 72.2¢ | $1.0K | — | $-1.0K | |
LI LimousinCTR | Tung-Lin Wuavg 63.9¢ | $361.4 | — | -$361.4 | 56% 915-719 (1634) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Tung-Lin Wuavg 84¢ | $336.15 | — | -$336.15 | 48% 14339-15840 (30179) |
VE VenusianCTR | Tung-Lin Wuavg 73.7¢ | $304 | — | -$223.98 | 53% 898-794 (1692) |
TH thestingsnakeCTR | Tung-Lin Wuavg 79.8¢ | $673.55 | — | -$152.85 | 60% 4206-2810 (7016) |
CA CandleHammerDrums | Chun-Chien Houavg 28.8¢ | $1.1K | $160.35 | -$9.68 | 52% 6698-6215 (12913) |
CI cigarettes | Chun-Chien Houavg 23.4¢ | $23.44 | $100 | +$76.56 | 54% 22016-19110 (41126) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Chun-Chien Houavg 17.9¢ | $12.92 | $72.19 | +$59.27 | 47% 10535-11772 (22307) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 84¢ | $30.09 | — | -$30.09 | 58% 44437-32355 (76792) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 51.3¢ | $27.32 | — | -$27.32 | 53% 883-772 (1655) |
 TRCMCTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 54.2¢ | $27.12 | — | -$27.12 | 55% 3994-3223 (7217) |
BI BillBenter2026<$100 | Chun-Chien Houavg 54.9¢ | $30.21 | $55 | +$24.79 | 57% 18964-14033 (32997) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 50.2¢ | $18.5 | — | -$18.5 | 45% 13592-16514 (30106) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 85¢ | $9.89 | — | -$9.89 | 50% 20113-20444 (40557) |
EU EulhunterCTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 58¢ | $17 | — | -$9.86 | 55% 6044-5045 (11089) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 58¢ | $6.38 | — | -$6.38 | 47% 9051-10188 (19239) |
 rayvanmechelenCTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 83¢ | $8.47 | — | -$8.47 | 74% 2369-819 (3188) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 81¢ | $8.1 | — | -$8.1 | 82% 6688-1443 (8131) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 84¢ | $2.68 | — | -$2.68 | 52% 8430-7691 (16121) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 55.2¢ | $1.1 | — | -$1.1 | 51% 7310-7059 (14369) |
SC SchruteBucksCTR<$100 | Tung-Lin Wuavg 77.9¢ | $34.56 | — | +$0.28 | 56% 1900-1470 (3370) |
RN1CTRInvested
$1,676.13
Value
—
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
53%
58869-51174 (110043)
Invested
$3,000
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
51%
1711-1637 (3348)
88MCTRInvested
$1,679.3
Value
—
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
42%
806-1103 (1909)
Invested
$1,820.53
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$16.29
Record
51%
23350-22134 (45484)
Both legs:
Invested
$361.4
Value
—
PnL
-$361.4
Record
56%
915-719 (1634)
Invested
$336.15
Value
—
PnL
-$336.15
Record
48%
14339-15840 (30179)
Invested
$304
Value
—
PnL
-$223.98
Record
53%
898-794 (1692)
Invested
$673.55
Value
—
PnL
-$152.85
Record
60%
4206-2810 (7016)
Invested
$1,070.03
Value
$160.35
PnL
-$9.68
Record
52%
6698-6215 (12913)
Invested
$23.44
Value
$100
PnL
+$76.56
Record
54%
22016-19110 (41126)
Invested
$12.92
Value
$72.19
PnL
+$59.27
Record
47%
10535-11772 (22307)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$30.09
Value
—
PnL
-$30.09
Record
58%
44437-32355 (76792)
Invested
$27.32
Value
—
PnL
-$27.32
Record
53%
883-772 (1655)
TRCMCTR<$100Invested
$27.12
Value
—
PnL
-$27.12
Record
55%
3994-3223 (7217)
Invested
$30.21
Value
$55
PnL
+$24.79
Record
57%
18964-14033 (32997)
Invested
$18.5
Value
—
PnL
-$18.5
Record
45%
13592-16514 (30106)
Invested
$9.89
Value
—
PnL
-$9.89
Record
50%
20113-20444 (40557)
Invested
$17
Value
—
PnL
-$9.86
Record
55%
6044-5045 (11089)
Invested
$6.38
Value
—
PnL
-$6.38
Record
47%
9051-10188 (19239)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100Invested
$8.47
Value
—
PnL
-$8.47
Record
74%
2369-819 (3188)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$8.1
Value
—
PnL
-$8.1
Record
82%
6688-1443 (8131)
Invested
$2.68
Value
—
PnL
-$2.68
Record
52%
8430-7691 (16121)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
—
PnL
-$1.1
Record
51%
7310-7059 (14369)
Invested
$34.56
Value
—
PnL
+$0.28
Record
56%
1900-1470 (3370)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
RN1
CTRTung-Lin Wu — $0
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Chun-Chien Hou — $3.0K
88M
CTRTung-Lin Wu — $0
Flaznorp
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Limousin
CTRTung-Lin Wu — $0
38791873984189
CTRTung-Lin Wu — $0
Venusian
CTRTung-Lin Wu — $0
thestingsnake
CTRTung-Lin Wu — $0
CandleHammerDrums
Chun-Chien Hou — $160.35
cigarettes
Chun-Chien Hou — $100