Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (65%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Mineiro: O/U 2.5

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (53%) · Under at 36¢ · $46K held · ended Nov 1

Over65¢Under35¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 53%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$45.5K

Combined PnL

$327.48

Smart Money Entry

60.4¢ → 35.5¢

-41% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over65%

Under36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$15.4K

Total Shares38,461

Combined PnL+$368.89

Under8 traders

Total Value$19.0K

Total Shares31,519

Combined PnL-$41.41

Over — 47%Under — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcott	Overavg 38.5¢	$13.5K	$13.5K	-$11.5	49% 110-116 (226)
RN1CTR	Underavg 61.3¢	$9.2K	$9.2K	+$25.06	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR	Underavg 61.6¢	$8.7K	$8.9K	+$202.47	55% 1781-1468 (3249)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 57.7¢	$7.0K	$5.8K	$-1.2K	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.7¢	$5.0K	$3.1K	$-1.9K
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.7¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$750.76
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Underavg 49.2¢	$3.3K	$3.5K	+$173.1	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$780
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.2¢	$2.2K	$1.6K	-$606.9
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 40¢	$664.86	$965.8	+$300.94	49% 13032-13607 (26639)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100	Overavg 84.7¢	$943.51	$823.52	-$119.99	82% 2441-547 (2988)
└ Over leg	Overavg 84.7¢	$697.55	$572.35	-$125.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 29.9¢	$245.96	$251.17	+$5.21
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 62.8¢	$959.41	$818.37	-$141.04	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
└ Over leg	Overavg 40.3¢	$284.71	$490.82	+$206.11
└ Under leg	Underavg 62.8¢	$674.7	$327.56	-$347.15
Nooserac	Overavg 38¢	$770.59	$780.73	+$10.14	52% 5832-5416 (11248)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR	Underavg 48¢	$889.7	$620.44	-$269.26	56% 157-124 (281)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 74.4¢	$204.05	$209.13	+$5.08	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
└ Over leg	Overavg 74.4¢	$172.47	$151.79	-$20.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 19¢	$31.58	$57.34	+$25.76
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 61.1¢	$370.99	$184.5	-$8.5	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HRTrading	Overavg 38¢	$69.25	$127.73	+$58.48	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 62.6¢	$44.77	$45.44	+$0.67	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 16.7¢	$29.21	$37.59	+$8.37	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 37.6¢	$20.82	$26.57	+$5.75	63% 1209-696 (1905)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 29¢	$20	$19.83	-$0.17	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
AR ARocky33<$100	Overavg 39¢	$8.62	$13.71	+$5.09	76% 4147-1304 (5451)
CC ccllarCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$2.99	$2.92	-$0.07	47% 461-527 (988)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 56¢	$1.01	$1.01	+$0	59% 30682-21402 (52084)

theowalcott

Over

Invested

$13,486.5

Value

$13.5K

PnL

-$11.5

Record

49%

110-116 (226)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$9,207.82

Value

$9.2K

PnL

+$25.06

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR

Under

Invested

$8,655.26

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$202.47

Record

55%

1781-1468 (3249)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$7,005.2

Value

$5.8K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

Both legs:

Under$5,034.7357.7¢$-1.9K

Over$1,970.4746.7¢+$750.76

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$3,299.98

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$173.1

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

Both legs:

Over$1,118.2438¢+$780

Under$2,181.7449.2¢-$606.9

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$664.86

Value

$965.8

PnL

+$300.94

Record

49%

13032-13607 (26639)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$943.51

Value

$823.52

PnL

-$119.99

Record

82%

2441-547 (2988)

Both legs:

Over$697.5584.7¢-$125.21

Under$245.9629.9¢+$5.21

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$959.41

Value

$818.37

PnL

-$141.04

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

Both legs:

Over$284.7140.3¢+$206.11

Under$674.762.8¢-$347.15

Nooserac

Over

Invested

$770.59

Value

$780.73

PnL

+$10.14

Record

52%

5832-5416 (11248)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR

Under

Invested

$889.7

Value

$620.44

PnL

-$269.26

Record

56%

157-124 (281)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$204.05

Value

$209.13

PnL

+$5.08

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Both legs:

Over$172.4774.4¢-$20.69

Under$31.5819¢+$25.76

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$370.99

Value

$184.5

PnL

-$8.5

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HRTrading

Over

Invested

$69.25

Value

$127.73

PnL

+$58.48

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$44.77

Value

$45.44

PnL

+$0.67

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.21

Value

$37.59

PnL

+$8.37

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$20.82

Value

$26.57

PnL

+$5.75

Record

63%

1209-696 (1905)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$19.83

PnL

-$0.17

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

ARocky33<$100

Over

Invested

$8.62

Value

$13.71

PnL

+$5.09

Record

76%

4147-1304 (5451)

ccllarCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.99

Value

$2.92

PnL

-$0.07

Record

47%

461-527 (988)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

30682-21402 (52084)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 36%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Over 65%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.7%

35.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$165.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

265.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.