Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 20 of 38 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-11-07?

20 of 38 top Polymarket traders hold No (53%) · No at 0.1¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 7

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.3K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 20 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 38 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes18 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares15,210

Combined PnL+$4.2K

No20 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares21,002

Combined PnL$-5.3K

Yes — 47%No — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Yesavg 55¢	$4.0K	$5.4K	+$1.3K	55% 3804-3137 (6941)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 31.8¢	$3.6K	$5.0K	+$1.4K	50% 28937-28754 (57691)
└ No leg	Noavg 31.8¢	$1.8K	$3.0K	+$1.2K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 42¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$188.56
AF afraz	Yesavg 53¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$830	59% 194-136 (330)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 33¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$28.36	49% 14983-15895 (30878)
Fuentes31	Yesavg 54¢	$1.0K	$1.8K	+$768.52	53% 687-608 (1295)
MA maxiplayer	Yesavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.6K	+$635.67	76% 769-247 (1016)
oieshfn345CTR	Noavg 46.4¢	$1.4K	$986.93	-$462.79	57% 2111-1562 (3673)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 44.3¢	$5.1K	$959.93	$-4.2K	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.3¢	$4.9K	$613.53	$-4.3K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$201.61	$346.41	+$144.8
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 52¢	$403.31	$563.22	+$159.91	49% 1800-1900 (3700)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 69¢	$664.26	$526.01	-$138.25	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
38 38791873984189	Yesavg 52.1¢	$567.52	$488.37	+$204.47	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Noavg 30.8¢	$835.15	$468.97	-$366.18	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.7¢	$266.96	$367.37	+$100.41
└ No leg	Noavg 30.8¢	$568.19	$101.6	-$466.59
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9	Yesavg 53¢	$344.38	$344.38	+$0	58% 413-298 (711)
FaroeseNationalist	Yesavg 69¢	$175.68	$243.15	+$67.47	49% 577-595 (1172)
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 52.6¢	$277.64	$232.05	+$87.48	54% 10453-8773 (19226)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Yesavg 56.5¢	$177.1	$199.21	+$22.11	52% 14650-13314 (27964)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Noavg 32¢	$192	$192	-$0	51% 2058-1996 (4054)
AV averagejoetraders	Yesavg 52.3¢	$106	$191.58	+$85.58	57% 676-519 (1195)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Noavg 47¢	$1.9K	$181.68	$-1.7K	53% 6331-5613 (11944)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Yesavg 55.3¢	$103.39	$176.82	+$73.43	53% 624-550 (1174)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Noavg 47.6¢	$195.29	$173.86	-$21.43	46% 1791-2100 (3891)
PT PT-S7CTR	Noavg 50.6¢	$202.31	$164.72	-$37.58	49% 3280-3447 (6727)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR	Noavg 52.4¢	$1.1K	$119.1	$-1.0K	62% 1925-1170 (3095)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 32.2¢	$97.56	$96.96	-$0.59	50% 26409-26025 (52434)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 32¢	$529.92	$87.03	-$419.01	58% 47503-34297 (81800)

Anon455

Yes

Invested

$4,049.08

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

55%

3804-3137 (6941)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$3,556.68

Value

$5.0K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

50%

28937-28754 (57691)

Both legs:

No$1,796.831.8¢+$1.2K

Yes$1,759.8842¢+$188.56

afraz

Yes

Invested

$1,060

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$830

Record

59%

194-136 (330)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$1,872

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$28.36

Record

49%

14983-15895 (30878)

Fuentes31

Yes

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$768.52

Record

53%

687-608 (1295)

maxiplayer

Yes

Invested

$1,009

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$635.67

Record

76%

769-247 (1016)

oieshfn345CTR

Invested

$1,449.73

Value

$986.93

PnL

-$462.79

Record

57%

2111-1562 (3673)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$5,144.9

Value

$959.93

PnL

$-4.2K

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

Both legs:

No$4,943.2944.3¢$-4.3K

Yes$201.6155¢+$144.8

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$403.31

Value

$563.22

PnL

+$159.91

Record

49%

1800-1900 (3700)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$664.26

Value

$526.01

PnL

-$138.25

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

38791873984189

Yes

Invested

$567.52

Value

$488.37

PnL

+$204.47

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

NM-PARB<$100

Invested

$835.15

Value

$468.97

PnL

-$366.18

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Yes$266.9668.7¢+$100.41

No$568.1930.8¢-$466.59

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9

Yes

Invested

$344.38

Value

$344.38

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

413-298 (711)

FaroeseNationalist

Yes

Invested

$175.68

Value

$243.15

PnL

+$67.47

Record

49%

577-595 (1172)

Pan9X

Yes

Invested

$277.64

Value

$232.05

PnL

+$87.48

Record

54%

10453-8773 (19226)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Yes

Invested

$177.1

Value

$199.21

PnL

+$22.11

Record

52%

14650-13314 (27964)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Invested

$192

Value

$192

PnL

-$0

Record

51%

2058-1996 (4054)

averagejoetraders

Yes

Invested

$106

Value

$191.58

PnL

+$85.58

Record

57%

676-519 (1195)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Invested

$1,896.17

Value

$181.68

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

53%

6331-5613 (11944)

oxe78sh4w98

Yes

Invested

$103.39

Value

$176.82

PnL

+$73.43

Record

53%

624-550 (1174)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Invested

$195.29

Value

$173.86

PnL

-$21.43

Record

46%

1791-2100 (3891)

PT-S7CTR

Invested

$202.31

Value

$164.72

PnL

-$37.58

Record

49%

3280-3447 (6727)

spyGoodLuck77CTR

Invested

$1,134.29

Value

$119.1

PnL

$-1.0K

Record

62%

1925-1170 (3095)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$97.56

Value

$96.96

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$529.92

Value

$87.03

PnL

-$419.01

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

20 of 38 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed20 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 48%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

87% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 48% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.