Texas State vs. Oregon State

19 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold Texas State (63%) · Texas State at 78¢ · $143K held · ended Nov 8

Texas State78¢Oregon State22¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas State

Consensus Traders

Texas State 63%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$143.5K

Combined PnL

$10.2K

Smart Money Entry

56.7¢ → 77.5¢

+37% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas State at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas State

19 of 30 top traders (63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Texas State78%

Oregon State23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas State19 traders

Total Value$82.2K

Total Shares112,424

Combined PnL+$16.3K

Oregon State11 traders

Total Value$26.4K

Total Shares72,148

Combined PnL$-6.2K

Texas State — 63%Oregon State — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Texas Stateavg 37.1¢	$8.7K	$16.9K	+$8.2K	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Oregon Stateavg 63.9¢	$13.2K	$14.5K	+$1.3K	48% 405-446 (851)
PR primm	Texas Stateavg 56.4¢	$8.7K	$12.1K	+$3.4K	47% 1317-1506 (2823)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Texas Stateavg 70¢	$11.7K	$11.6K	-$27.39	46% 1795-2102 (3897)
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Texas Stateavg 57.3¢	$11.3K	$11.0K	-$280.06	52% 5134-4713 (9847)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 57.3¢	$6.2K	$8.5K	+$2.4K
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 42.8¢	$5.1K	$2.4K	$-2.7K
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Texas Stateavg 56.2¢	$10.2K	$10.6K	+$412.3	53% 6334-5615 (11949)
RN1ARB<$100	Texas Stateavg 58.8¢	$10.1K	$9.9K	-$186.21	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 58.8¢	$5.5K	$7.3K	+$1.8K
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 39.2¢	$4.6K	$2.6K	$-1.9K
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Texas Stateavg 59.8¢	$8.3K	$9.8K	+$1.5K	54% 1393-1200 (2593)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Oregon Stateavg 39.2¢	$14.4K	$7.7K	$-5.8K	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Texas Stateavg 62.6¢	$8.7K	$6.4K	-$970.07	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 62.6¢	$3.8K	$4.7K	+$911.73
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 46.9¢	$3.4K	$1.6K	$-1.9K
ST stackingsats	Texas Stateavg 73.3¢	$5.3K	$5.5K	+$230.42	48% 358-393 (751)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Texas Stateavg 55.2¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$22.04	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 55.2¢	$2.2K	$3.1K	+$876.15
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 41.7¢	$2.0K	$1.1K	-$898.18
CUTJALENHURTS	Texas Stateavg 54.9¢	$3.2K	$3.9K	+$756.08	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
VI vibing123	Texas Stateavg 60¢	$2.5K	$3.2K	+$761.87	52% 1674-1564 (3238)
EN ENDBOSSLLC	Texas Stateavg 56¢	$2.5K	$3.2K	+$656.76	44% 330-424 (754)
CM cm2897CTR	Oregon Stateavg 31.8¢	$3.4K	$2.4K	-$999.24	51% 2230-2185 (4415)
AN analdesutructorARB<$100	Oregon Stateavg 30¢	$2.6K	$1.9K	-$684.4	53% 202-182 (384)
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 30¢	$1.9K	$1.1K	-$709.55
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 79¢	$781.73	$806.88	+$25.15
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Texas Stateavg 61.9¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$145.35	57% 19479-14427 (33906)
└ Texas State leg	Texas Stateavg 61.9¢	$871.33	$1.1K	+$219.09
└ Oregon State leg	Oregon Stateavg 26.5¢	$485.04	$411.3	-$73.74
betdge	Texas Stateavg 56.7¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$31.71	49% 1247-1285 (2532)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texas Stateavg 59.7¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$275	56% 8738-6795 (15533)
JU justaluckydude	Texas Stateavg 57.5¢	$587.3	$650.02	+$62.72	53% 12378-10927 (23305)
OJ ojgCTR	Oregon Stateavg 32.2¢	$847.8	$611.02	-$236.77	43% 838-1096 (1934)
RollAwayTheDew	Texas Stateavg 62¢	$399.9	$480.53	+$80.63	54% 542-460 (1002)
PA Pan9X	Texas Stateavg 73.8¢	$613.65	$466.5	-$32.2	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
FL Flaznorp	Texas Stateavg 77¢	$427.51	$419.91	-$7.6	51% 27272-25818 (53090)

ferrariChampions2026

Texas State

Invested

$8,687.17

Value

$16.9K

PnL

+$8.2K

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$13,193.67

Value

$14.5K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

primm

Texas State

Invested

$8,718.31

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$3.4K

Record

47%

1317-1506 (2823)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Texas State

Invested

$11,672.04

Value

$11.6K

PnL

-$27.39

Record

46%

1795-2102 (3897)

takeormakeARB<$100

Texas State

Invested

$11,262.18

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$280.06

Record

52%

5134-4713 (9847)

Both legs:

Texas State$6,157.7657.3¢+$2.4K

Oregon State$5,104.4142.8¢$-2.7K

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Texas State

Invested

$10,187

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$412.3

Record

53%

6334-5615 (11949)

RN1ARB<$100

Texas State

Invested

$10,067.61

Value

$9.9K

PnL

-$186.21

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

Both legs:

Texas State$5,506.1458.8¢+$1.8K

Oregon State$4,561.4739.2¢$-1.9K

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Texas State

Invested

$8,299.78

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

1393-1200 (2593)

6512395314597884CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$14,393.55

Value

$7.7K

PnL

$-5.8K

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Texas State

Invested

$8,697.76

Value

$6.4K

PnL

-$970.07

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Texas State$3,832.9862.6¢+$911.73

Oregon State$3,392.9246.9¢$-1.9K

stackingsats

Texas State

Invested

$5,304.68

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$230.42

Record

48%

358-393 (751)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Texas State

Invested

$4,125.03

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$22.04

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

Texas State$2,174.9655.2¢+$876.15

Oregon State$1,950.0641.7¢-$898.18

CUTJALENHURTS

Texas State

Invested

$3,179.85

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$756.08

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

vibing123

Texas State

Invested

$2,484.33

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$761.87

Record

52%

1674-1564 (3238)

ENDBOSSLLC

Texas State

Invested

$2,536.45

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$656.76

Record

44%

330-424 (754)

cm2897CTR

Oregon State

Invested

$3,429.24

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$999.24

Record

51%

2230-2185 (4415)

analdesutructorARB<$100

Oregon State

Invested

$2,632.73

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$684.4

Record

53%

202-182 (384)

Both legs:

Oregon State$1,85130¢-$709.55

Texas State$781.7379¢+$25.15

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Texas State

Invested

$1,356.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$145.35

Record

57%

19479-14427 (33906)

Both legs:

Texas State$871.3361.9¢+$219.09

Oregon State$485.0426.5¢-$73.74

betdge

Texas State

Invested

$1,451.96

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$31.71

Record

49%

1247-1285 (2532)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texas State

Invested

$1,040

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$275

Record

56%

8738-6795 (15533)

justaluckydude

Texas State

Invested

$587.3

Value

$650.02

PnL

+$62.72

Record

53%

12378-10927 (23305)

ojgCTR

Oregon State

Invested

$847.8

Value

$611.02

PnL

-$236.77

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

RollAwayTheDew

Texas State

Invested

$399.9

Value

$480.53

PnL

+$80.63

Record

54%

542-460 (1002)

Pan9X

Texas State

Invested

$613.65

Value

$466.5

PnL

-$32.2

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Flaznorp

Texas State

Invested

$427.51

Value

$419.91

PnL

-$7.6

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Research grade

NeutralTexas State at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas State

19 of 30 top traders (63%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.