UTSA vs. Florida Atlantic

19 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold Florida Atlantic (70%) · Florida Atlantic at 88¢ · $202K held · ended Nov 6

UTSA13¢Florida Atlantic87¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Florida Atlantic

Consensus Traders

Florida Atlantic 70%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$201.8K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 87.5¢

+74% since entry · 19 traders

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

19 of 27 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UTSA13%

Florida Atlantic88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UTSA8 traders

Total Value$70.0K

Total Shares121,229

Combined PnL$-23.8K

Florida Atlantic19 traders

Total Value$110.7K

Total Shares142,660

Combined PnL+$26.2K

UTSA — 30%Florida Atlantic — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	UTSAavg 51.6¢	$71.3K	$56.7K	$-14.6K	48% 347-378 (725)
PR primm	Florida Atlanticavg 55.9¢	$33.2K	$41.9K	+$8.7K	47% 1273-1454 (2727)
RN1	Florida Atlanticavg 47.6¢	$15.7K	$19.3K	+$3.6K	53% 61400-53704 (115104)
65 6512395314597884	Florida Atlanticavg 52.8¢	$14.0K	$18.5K	+$5.5K	51% 4772-4633 (9405)
38 38791873984189	Florida Atlanticavg 55.4¢	$11.2K	$10.0K	+$669.81	48% 61256-66065 (127321)
ET ethanazARB<$100	UTSAavg 60.6¢	$23.4K	$9.5K	$-14.0K	49% 718-748 (1466)
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 42.8¢	$2.5K	$5.2K	+$2.6K
└ UTSA leg	UTSAavg 60.6¢	$20.9K	$4.3K	$-16.6K
TA TAIWANNUMBERONE	Florida Atlanticavg 34.7¢	$3.5K	$7.5K	+$4.0K	53% 1353-1176 (2529)
CM cm2897ARB<$100	UTSAavg 22.6¢	$9.1K	$6.8K	$-2.7K	51% 2168-2100 (4268)
└ UTSA leg	UTSAavg 22.6¢	$7.8K	$4.3K	$-3.5K
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 43.9¢	$1.2K	$2.5K	+$745.57
HO HomeRunHazard	Florida Atlanticavg 29¢	$3.2K	$6.5K	+$3.3K	54% 18232-15346 (33578)
BI big8betzCTR	UTSAavg 63.7¢	$5.9K	$5.5K	-$437.87	49% 44-45 (89)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	UTSAavg 70¢	$12.8K	$5.4K	$-7.4K	42% 8009-11197 (19206)
The-Joker	Florida Atlanticavg 64.9¢	$2.6K	$2.3K	-$297.7	68% 1568-738 (2306)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Florida Atlanticavg 58.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	+$12.82	52% 14511-13193 (27704)
BI BillBenter2026ARB<$100	Florida Atlanticavg 62.9¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$108.98	57% 19349-14322 (33671)
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 62.9¢	$1.2K	$1.6K	+$452.37
└ UTSA leg	UTSAavg 29¢	$986.61	$425.25	-$561.36
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	UTSAavg 38.6¢	$2.0K	$1.6K	-$362.65	53% 12169-10675 (22844)
└ UTSA leg	UTSAavg 38.6¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$546.37
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 49.2¢	$356.39	$540.12	+$183.72
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR	UTSAavg 63.7¢	$2.1K	$1.3K	-$773.23	43% 319-417 (736)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearARB<$100	UTSAavg 36.5¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$178.03	46% 431-513 (944)
└ UTSA leg	UTSAavg 36.5¢	$886.71	$716.23	-$170.48
└ Florida Atlantic leg	Florida Atlanticavg 71.6¢	$483.79	$476.24	-$7.55
HE Herdonia	Florida Atlanticavg 28.3¢	$626.28	$906.28	+$280	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	UTSAavg 62.4¢	$1.3K	$729.74	-$550.14	51% 1905-1854 (3759)
AN analdesutructor	Florida Atlanticavg 57.7¢	$491.33	$468.05	-$23.28	52% 190-173 (363)
PA Pan9X	Florida Atlanticavg 63¢	$951.62	$392.66	+$25.53	54% 9751-8144 (17895)
betdgeCTR	UTSAavg 31.6¢	$280.35	$261.37	-$18.98	49% 1226-1268 (2494)
AN AnonymousUsername	Florida Atlanticavg 28.5¢	$213.62	$256.09	+$145.38	69% 7209-3191 (10400)
FL Flaznorp	Florida Atlanticavg 49.8¢	$90.95	$159.7	+$68.75	51% 25823-24512 (50335)
PT PT-S7	Florida Atlanticavg 32¢	$96	$152.57	+$106.14	49% 3218-3391 (6609)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

UTSA

Invested

$71,252.53

Value

$56.7K

PnL

$-14.6K

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

primm

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$33,208

Value

$41.9K

PnL

+$8.7K

Record

47%

1273-1454 (2727)

RN1

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$15,716.71

Value

$19.3K

PnL

+$3.6K

Record

53%

61400-53704 (115104)

6512395314597884

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$14,043.5

Value

$18.5K

PnL

+$5.5K

Record

51%

4772-4633 (9405)

38791873984189

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$11,217.82

Value

$10.0K

PnL

+$669.81

Record

48%

61256-66065 (127321)

ethanazARB<$100

UTSA

Invested

$23,423.04

Value

$9.5K

PnL

$-14.0K

Record

49%

718-748 (1466)

Both legs:

Florida Atlantic$2,519.9942.8¢+$2.6K

UTSA$20,903.0660.6¢$-16.6K

TAIWANNUMBERONE

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$3,509.86

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$4.0K

Record

53%

1353-1176 (2529)

cm2897ARB<$100

UTSA

Invested

$9,054.64

Value

$6.8K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

51%

2168-2100 (4268)

Both legs:

UTSA$7,811.6222.6¢$-3.5K

Florida Atlantic$1,243.0343.9¢+$745.57

HomeRunHazard

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$3,175.61

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

54%

18232-15346 (33578)

big8betzCTR

UTSA

Invested

$5,935.42

Value

$5.5K

PnL

-$437.87

Record

49%

44-45 (89)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

UTSA

Invested

$12,774.34

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-7.4K

Record

42%

8009-11197 (19206)

The-Joker

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$2,597.7

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$297.7

Record

68%

1568-738 (2306)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$2,225.77

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$12.82

Record

52%

14511-13193 (27704)

BillBenter2026ARB<$100

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$2,145.98

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$108.98

Record

57%

19349-14322 (33671)

Both legs:

Florida Atlantic$1,159.3862.9¢+$452.37

UTSA$986.6129¢-$561.36

justaluckydudeARB<$100

UTSA

Invested

$1,963.86

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$362.65

Record

53%

12169-10675 (22844)

Both legs:

UTSA$1,607.4738.6¢-$546.37

Florida Atlantic$356.3949.2¢+$183.72

ENDBOSSLLCCTR

UTSA

Invested

$2,123.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$773.23

Record

43%

319-417 (736)

SunflowaRebuildYearARB<$100

UTSA

Invested

$1,370.5

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$178.03

Record

46%

431-513 (944)

Both legs:

UTSA$886.7136.5¢-$170.48

Florida Atlantic$483.7971.6¢-$7.55

Herdonia

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$626.28

Value

$906.28

PnL

+$280

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

UTSA

Invested

$1,279.88

Value

$729.74

PnL

-$550.14

Record

51%

1905-1854 (3759)

analdesutructor

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$491.33

Value

$468.05

PnL

-$23.28

Record

52%

190-173 (363)

Pan9X

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$951.62

Value

$392.66

PnL

+$25.53

Record

54%

9751-8144 (17895)

betdgeCTR

UTSA

Invested

$280.35

Value

$261.37

PnL

-$18.98

Record

49%

1226-1268 (2494)

AnonymousUsername

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$213.62

Value

$256.09

PnL

+$145.38

Record

69%

7209-3191 (10400)

Flaznorp

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$90.95

Value

$159.7

PnL

+$68.75

Record

51%

25823-24512 (50335)

PT-S7

Florida Atlantic

Invested

$96

Value

$152.57

PnL

+$106.14

Record

49%

3218-3391 (6609)

Research grade

NeutralFlorida Atlantic at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Florida Atlantic

19 of 27 top traders (70%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Florida Atlantic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.