Western Michigan vs. Akron

13 of 31 top Polymarket traders hold Western Michigan (42%) · Western Michigan at 97¢ · $297K held · ended Nov 11

Western Michigan97¢Akron3¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Michigan

Consensus Traders

Western Michigan 42%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$296.7K

Combined PnL

$1.7K

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 96.5¢

+4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

13 of 31 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Western Michigan97%

Akron3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Michigan13 traders

Total Value$282.3K

Total Shares296,596

Combined PnL+$5.2K

Akron18 traders

Total Value$14.2K

Total Shares279,101

Combined PnL$-3.4K

Western Michigan — 42%Akron — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

32% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAkron 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedAkron 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Akron 67% · 27

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Western Michiganavg 95.5¢	$225.1K	$225.2K	+$111	85% 97-17 (114)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Western Michiganavg 81.1¢	$23.5K	$26.8K	+$3.3K	47% 500-558 (1058)
nigiri99	Western Michiganavg 86¢	$17.6K	$19.5K	+$1.9K	52% 128-120 (248)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Akronavg 4.5¢	$10.5K	$10.4K	-$34.27	51% 3680-3509 (7189)
PU purplegatto	Western Michiganavg 85¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$81.58	69% 2573-1166 (3739)
DA darkumbreon88	Western Michiganavg 84¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$104.23	61% 900-577 (1477)
HI hi774cCTR	Akronavg 14¢	$1.4K	$1.2K	-$197.88	8% 37-422 (459)
0X 0xfFFF6537	Western Michiganavg 80¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.58	22% 16-56 (72)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Western Michiganavg 95.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$81.82	56% 3819-2985 (6804)
dips.	Western Michiganavg 80¢	$969.08	$1.1K	+$96.91	42% 230-315 (545)
VeryLucky888CTR	Akronavg 14¢	$1.1K	$900	-$150	51% 299-291 (590)
38 38791873984189	Western Michiganavg 84.7¢	$2.1K	$873.98	-$446.21	48% 947-1017 (1964)
PA pagliacci4	Western Michiganavg 93¢	$661.23	$689.31	+$28.08	33% 16-32 (48)
OJ ojg	Western Michiganavg 94¢	$564.74	$496.97	-$38.12	41% 106-154 (260)
ET ethanazCTR	Akronavg 19¢	$2.9K	$495.24	$-2.4K	46% 380-448 (828)
HO HomeRunHazard	Western Michiganavg 84¢	$463.68	$485.76	+$22.08	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Akronavg 15¢	$421.73	$278.88	-$69.72	— 3-6 (9)
BI BillBenter2026	Western Michiganavg 80.3¢	$239.4	$262.24	+$22.84	18% 106-474 (580)
LI LimousinCTR	Akronavg 15.7¢	$305.91	$175.9	-$130.01	28% 284-730 (1014)
alpheclabs2CTR	Akronavg 16¢	$216.2	$162.15	-$54.05	45% 86-104 (190)
BA babybellsARB<$100	Akronavg 6¢	$148.18	$122.35	-$25.84	20% 100-388 (488)
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 6¢	$112.21	$83.72	-$28.49
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 88.9¢	$35.98	$38.63	+$2.65
RN1ARB<$100	Akronavg 8.8¢	$210.44	$118.46	-$91.98	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
└ Akron leg	Akronavg 8.8¢	$155.58	$60.3	-$95.28
└ Western Michigan leg	Western Michiganavg 91.1¢	$54.86	$58.16	+$3.31
MA MadridTimeCTR	Akronavg 14¢	$191.42	$109.38	-$82.04	28% 278-703 (981)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Akronavg 15¢	$185.68	$99.03	-$86.65	48% 190-206 (396)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Akronavg 4.9¢	$89.04	$58.91	-$30.14	54% 1656-1433 (3089)

999585

Western Michigan

Invested

$225,078

Value

$225.2K

PnL

+$111

Record

85%

97-17 (114)

Multicoloured-Serf

Western Michigan

Invested

$23,472.54

Value

$26.8K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

47%

500-558 (1058)

nigiri99

Western Michigan

Invested

$17,558.62

Value

$19.5K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Akron

Invested

$10,473.92

Value

$10.4K

PnL

-$34.27

Record

51%

3680-3509 (7189)

purplegatto

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,311.3

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$81.58

Record

69%

2573-1166 (3739)

darkumbreon88

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,188.74

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$104.23

Record

61%

900-577 (1477)

hi774cCTR

Akron

Invested

$1,385.13

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$197.88

Record

37-422 (459)

0xfFFF6537

Western Michigan

Invested

$1,173.41

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.58

Record

22%

16-56 (72)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Western Michigan

Invested

$1,184.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$81.82

Record

56%

3819-2985 (6804)

dips.

Western Michigan

Invested

$969.08

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$96.91

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

VeryLucky888CTR

Akron

Invested

$1,060.38

Value

$900

PnL

-$150

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

38791873984189

Western Michigan

Invested

$2,089.49

Value

$873.98

PnL

-$446.21

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

pagliacci4

Western Michigan

Invested

$661.23

Value

$689.31

PnL

+$28.08

Record

33%

16-32 (48)

ojg

Western Michigan

Invested

$564.74

Value

$496.97

PnL

-$38.12

Record

41%

106-154 (260)

ethanazCTR

Akron

Invested

$2,851.41

Value

$495.24

PnL

$-2.4K

Record

46%

380-448 (828)

HomeRunHazard

Western Michigan

Invested

$463.68

Value

$485.76

PnL

+$22.08

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Akron

Invested

$421.73

Value

$278.88

PnL

-$69.72

Record

—

3-6 (9)

BillBenter2026

Western Michigan

Invested

$239.4

Value

$262.24

PnL

+$22.84

Record

18%

106-474 (580)

LimousinCTR

Akron

Invested

$305.91

Value

$175.9

PnL

-$130.01

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

alpheclabs2CTR

Akron

Invested

$216.2

Value

$162.15

PnL

-$54.05

Record

45%

86-104 (190)

babybellsARB<$100

Akron

Invested

$148.18

Value

$122.35

PnL

-$25.84

Record

20%

100-388 (488)

Both legs:

Akron$112.216¢-$28.49

Western Michigan$35.9888.9¢+$2.65

RN1ARB<$100

Akron

Invested

$210.44

Value

$118.46

PnL

-$91.98

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

Both legs:

Akron$155.588.8¢-$95.28

Western Michigan$54.8691.1¢+$3.31

MadridTimeCTR

Akron

Invested

$191.42

Value

$109.38

PnL

-$82.04

Record

28%

278-703 (981)

SnakeBallCTR

Akron

Invested

$185.68

Value

$99.03

PnL

-$86.65

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Akron

Invested

$89.04

Value

$58.91

PnL

-$30.14

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Michigan at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Western Michigan

13 of 31 top traders (42%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

32% of non-arb traders are on Western Michigan. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperWestern Michigan 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrAkron 71% · 14

Diverging

Hand-pickedAkron 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Akron 67% · 27

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Michigan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.