Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-11-05?

12 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 77¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 5

Yes77¢No23¢Ended Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

88.7¢ → 76.5¢

-14% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 24 top traders (50%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes77%

No24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes12 traders

Total Value$5.5K

Total Shares6,751

Combined PnL-$665.59

No12 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares10,342

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-52 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA GamblingOdyssey	Yesavg 93¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$140	51% 918-876 (1794)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 19.5¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$540.57	51% 25736-24442 (50178)
└ No leg	Noavg 19.5¢	$2.0K	$2.7K	+$632.89
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83.7¢	$840.94	$748.62	-$92.32
LI LightParadoxCTR	Noavg 8.3¢	$400.07	$2.2K	+$1.8K	52% 1374-1289 (2663)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 20.5¢	$719.72	$1.2K	+$505.06	53% 61353-53664 (115017)
└ No leg	Noavg 20.5¢	$408.02	$926.99	+$518.97
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 56¢	$311.7	$297.79	-$13.92
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 80.1¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$61.49	47% 11692-13410 (25102)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 80.1¢	$939.74	$827.58	-$112.16
└ No leg	Noavg 23.8¢	$210.67	$261.34	+$50.67
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Yesavg 81.5¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$72.29	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 81.5¢	$859.37	$759.44	-$187.99
└ No leg	Noavg 15.8¢	$151.38	$267.86	+$115.69
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Yesavg 87.8¢	$754.91	$464.22	-$269.69	60% 2683-1792 (4475)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yesavg 66.8¢	$313.29	$350.61	+$37.32	46% 1536-1808 (3344)
└ No leg	Noavg 30.9¢	$141.85	$213.29	+$71.44
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 66.8¢	$171.44	$137.32	-$34.12
SL SlickRick123	Yesavg 83.7¢	$301.14	$300.41	-$0.74	48% 5437-5947 (11384)
LI LilybaeumCTR	Noavg 19.9¢	$154.96	$273.44	+$118.49	61% 14348-9281 (23629)
AR ARocky33	Yesavg 69.1¢	$264.38	$269.77	+$5.21	76% 4493-1392 (5885)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 22.9¢	$201.18	$259.05	+$57.88	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$250.64	$249.28	+$5.75	64% 9921-5527 (15448)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 91¢	$149.24	$154.16	+$4.1
└ No leg	Noavg 6.4¢	$101.4	$95.12	+$1.65
PA Pan9X	Yesavg 79.5¢	$1.1K	$230.53	-$76.55	55% 9735-8125 (17860)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Yesavg 84.6¢	$254.09	$228.59	-$25.5	52% 14487-13178 (27665)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 84.6¢	$232.55	$153.96	-$78.59
└ No leg	Noavg 12.7¢	$21.54	$74.62	+$53.09
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 93.3¢	$243.97	$223.51	-$20.46	84% 14846-2866 (17712)
LI LimousinCTR	Noavg 24.2¢	$150.02	$183.09	+$33.07	53% 1421-1264 (2685)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Yesavg 83.7¢	$119.54	$177.92	+$58.39	50% 21164-21421 (42585)
└ No leg	Noavg 8.1¢	$29.14	$100.16	+$71.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83.7¢	$90.4	$77.76	-$12.63
CI cigarettesARB<$100	Yesavg 76.7¢	$115.49	$168.28	+$52.8	53% 23490-20724 (44214)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 76.7¢	$94.49	$91.78	-$2.7
└ No leg	Noavg 7¢	$21	$76.5	+$55.5
BA Bayupati	Yesavg 94.3¢	$122.4	$122.03	-$0.37	49% 259-272 (531)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 30.9¢	$81.46	$117.3	+$35.85	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
poshposh	Yesavg 86¢	$172.41	$111.28	-$61.13	57% 12701-9766 (22467)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$91.62	$91.1	-$0.52	50% 25814-25509 (51323)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Noavg 6.4¢	$89.49	$83.3	-$6.19	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
Basquetipster<$100	Yesavg 88.5¢	$73.78	$78.34	+$2.92	53% 1784-1559 (3343)

GamblingOdyssey

Yes

Invested

$3,720

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$140

Record

51%

918-876 (1794)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$2,880.42

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$540.57

Record

51%

25736-24442 (50178)

Both legs:

No$2,039.4819.5¢+$632.89

Yes$840.9483.7¢-$92.32

LightParadoxCTR

Invested

$400.07

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

52%

1374-1289 (2663)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$719.72

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$505.06

Record

53%

61353-53664 (115017)

Both legs:

No$408.0220.5¢+$518.97

Yes$311.756¢-$13.92

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,150.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$61.49

Record

47%

11692-13410 (25102)

Both legs:

Yes$939.7480.1¢-$112.16

No$210.6723.8¢+$50.67

38791873984189ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,384.66

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$72.29

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

Both legs:

Yes$859.3781.5¢-$187.99

No$151.3815.8¢+$115.69

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Yes

Invested

$754.91

Value

$464.22

PnL

-$269.69

Record

60%

2683-1792 (4475)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$313.29

Value

$350.61

PnL

+$37.32

Record

46%

1536-1808 (3344)

Both legs:

No$141.8530.9¢+$71.44

Yes$171.4466.8¢-$34.12

SlickRick123

Yes

Invested

$301.14

Value

$300.41

PnL

-$0.74

Record

48%

5437-5947 (11384)

LilybaeumCTR

Invested

$154.96

Value

$273.44

PnL

+$118.49

Record

61%

14348-9281 (23629)

ARocky33

Yes

Invested

$264.38

Value

$269.77

PnL

+$5.21

Record

76%

4493-1392 (5885)

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$201.18

Value

$259.05

PnL

+$57.88

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

NM-PARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$250.64

Value

$249.28

PnL

+$5.75

Record

64%

9921-5527 (15448)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,093.93

Value

$230.53

PnL

-$76.55

Record

55%

9735-8125 (17860)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$254.09

Value

$228.59

PnL

-$25.5

Record

52%

14487-13178 (27665)

Both legs:

Yes$232.5584.6¢-$78.59

No$21.5412.7¢+$53.09

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$243.97

Value

$223.51

PnL

-$20.46

Record

84%

14846-2866 (17712)

LimousinCTR

Invested

$150.02

Value

$183.09

PnL

+$33.07

Record

53%

1421-1264 (2685)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$119.54

Value

$177.92

PnL

+$58.39

Record

50%

21164-21421 (42585)

Both legs:

Invested

$115.49

Value

$168.28

PnL

+$52.8

Record

53%

23490-20724 (44214)

Both legs:

Invested

$122.4

Value

$122.03

PnL

-$0.37

Record

49%

259-272 (531)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$81.46

Value

$117.3

PnL

+$35.85

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$172.41

Value

$111.28

PnL

-$61.13

Record

57%

12701-9766 (22467)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$91.62

Value

$91.1

PnL

-$0.52

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

GC-PCTR<$100

Invested

$89.49

Value

$83.3

PnL

-$6.19

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

Basquetipster<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.78

Value

$78.34

PnL

+$2.92

Record

53%

1784-1559 (3343)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

12 of 24 top traders (50%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-52 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 82% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.