Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Spirit, while the market favors FUT Esports (98%). 13 of 35 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner

13 of 35 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (37%) · Spirit at 2.1¢ · $171K held · ends Nov 11

Spirit2¢FUT Esports98¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 37%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$171.2K

Combined PnL

$-35.2K

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 2.1¢

-97% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidSpirit at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

13 of 35 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors FUT Esports 98%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit2%

FUT Esports98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FUT Esports22 traders

Total Value$145.7K

Total Shares187,422

Combined PnL+$36.1K

Spirit13 traders

Total Value$21.3K

Total Shares128,709

Combined PnL$-71.3K

FUT Esports — 63%Spirit — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperSpirit 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpirit 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	FUT Esportsavg 52.5¢	$44.8K	$49.0K	+$4.2K	64% 49-27 (76)
AS asuka7	FUT Esportsavg 71.4¢	$12.2K	$16.7K	+$4.5K	2% 7-308 (315)
RE redvinny	FUT Esportsavg 82.7¢	$11.9K	$14.1K	+$2.2K	8% 11-128 (139)
UB ubetteruuuuCTR	Spiritavg 74¢	$16.4K	$9.9K	$-6.5K	12% 15-109 (124)
LU luckycat888888	FUT Esportsavg 19.6¢	$2.0K	$9.8K	+$7.8K	12% 13-98 (111)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	FUT Esportsavg 50.6¢	$7.8K	$8.9K	+$1.1K	56% 3835-3004 (6839)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	FUT Esportsavg 20¢	$1.5K	$7.4K	+$5.9K	51% 3697-3538 (7235)
TH THEHIGHLIFE	FUT Esportsavg 49¢	$3.5K	$7.0K	+$3.5K	52% 1348-1234 (2582)
FE fengdubisheng117	FUT Esportsavg 21¢	$2.6K	$6.7K	+$4.2K	2% 1-50 (51)
31 319113331313111	FUT Esportsavg 60.3¢	$6.0K	$6.0K	-$39.41	49% 57-59 (116)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	Spiritavg 73¢	$5.5K	$5.9K	+$449.96	46% 510-589 (1099)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	FUT Esportsavg 33.6¢	$2.2K	$4.3K	+$2.1K	53% 1763-1567 (3330)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Spiritavg 82¢	$49.0K	$3.9K	$-45.1K	42% 103-142 (245)
BL black-rabbitARB<$100	Spiritavg 26.5¢	$2.9K	$3.7K	+$727.92	1% 1-66 (67)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 45¢	$1.3K	$2.3K	+$967.92
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 26.5¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$240
PR pravica	FUT Esportsavg 17¢	$2.9K	$3.2K	+$256.2	5% 1-19 (20)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	FUT Esportsavg 26.8¢	$3.2K	$2.4K	-$807.02	55% 131-109 (240)
WE westing.v1	FUT Esportsavg 25.9¢	$601.33	$2.3K	+$1.7K	13% 10-67 (77)
BI BillBenter2026	FUT Esportsavg 30.6¢	$1.0K	$2.3K	+$1.7K	21% 128-484 (612)
forsenxd	FUT Esportsavg 17.8¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$84.42	49% 355-375 (730)
0X 0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314	FUT Esportsavg 35¢	$733.57	$2.1K	+$1.3K	10% 14-123 (137)
PO PourpelNourpel	FUT Esportsavg 40¢	$429	$814.18	+$385.18	53% 29-26 (55)
PA papaebal	FUT Esportsavg 19¢	$665.81	$648.29	-$17.52	0% 0-102 (102)
VladooosCTR	Spiritavg 80¢	$5.5K	$583.38	$-4.9K	67% 14-7 (21)
CA calculate10ARB<$100	Spiritavg 23.4¢	$2.2K	$340.63	$-1.2K	22% 25-89 (114)
└ FUT Esports leg	FUT Esportsavg 96¢	$202.72	$206.31	+$12.26
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 23.4¢	$1.4K	$134.32	$-1.2K
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Spiritavg 76¢	$304	$316	+$12	14% 136-820 (956)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

FUT Esports

Invested

$44,823.67

Value

$49.0K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

64%

49-27 (76)

asuka7

FUT Esports

Invested

$12,194.22

Value

$16.7K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

7-308 (315)

redvinny

FUT Esports

Invested

$11,904.91

Value

$14.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

11-128 (139)

ubetteruuuuCTR

Spirit

Invested

$16,391.88

Value

$9.9K

PnL

$-6.5K

Record

12%

15-109 (124)

luckycat888888

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,957.13

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$7.8K

Record

12%

13-98 (111)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

FUT Esports

Invested

$7,782.25

Value

$8.9K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

56%

3835-3004 (6839)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,514.27

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

51%

3697-3538 (7235)

THEHIGHLIFE

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,513.4

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$3.5K

Record

52%

1348-1234 (2582)

fengdubisheng117

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,553

Value

$6.7K

PnL

+$4.2K

Record

1-50 (51)

319113331313111

FUT Esports

Invested

$5,996.67

Value

$6.0K

PnL

-$39.41

Record

49%

57-59 (116)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

Spirit

Invested

$5,474.57

Value

$5.9K

PnL

+$449.96

Record

46%

510-589 (1099)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,243.82

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

53%

1763-1567 (3330)

fantasy7788CTR

Spirit

Invested

$49,000

Value

$3.9K

PnL

$-45.1K

Record

42%

103-142 (245)

black-rabbitARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$2,930.19

Value

$3.7K

PnL

+$727.92

Record

1-66 (67)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$1,340.1945¢+$967.92

Spirit$1,59026.5¢-$240

pravica

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,903.6

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$256.2

Record

1-19 (20)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

FUT Esports

Invested

$3,163.76

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$807.02

Record

55%

131-109 (240)

westing.v1

FUT Esports

Invested

$601.33

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

13%

10-67 (77)

BillBenter2026

FUT Esports

Invested

$1,007.43

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

21%

128-484 (612)

forsenxd

FUT Esports

Invested

$2,028.89

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$84.42

Record

49%

355-375 (730)

0x2A97E8680FbED0fFCB4661cAc73B066dd3e12FFB-1771833636314

FUT Esports

Invested

$733.57

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

10%

14-123 (137)

PourpelNourpel

FUT Esports

Invested

$429

Value

$814.18

PnL

+$385.18

Record

53%

29-26 (55)

papaebal

FUT Esports

Invested

$665.81

Value

$648.29

PnL

-$17.52

Record

0-102 (102)

VladooosCTR

Spirit

Invested

$5,488.88

Value

$583.38

PnL

$-4.9K

Record

67%

14-7 (21)

calculate10ARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$2,224.98

Value

$340.63

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

22%

25-89 (114)

Both legs:

FUT Esports$202.7296¢+$12.26

Spirit$1,363.6623.4¢$-1.2K

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Spirit

Invested

$304

Value

$316

PnL

+$12

Record

14%

136-820 (956)

Research grade

AvoidSpirit at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

13 of 35 top traders (37%)Underdog side (market favors FUT Esports 98%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 67% · 3

Aligned

sniperSpirit 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSpirit 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.3%

2.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2976.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

3076.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.