Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner

29 of 43 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (67%) · Spirit at 86¢ · $141K held · ends Nov 12

Spirit86¢G214¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$140.8K

Combined PnL

$-14.2K

Smart Money Entry

71.2¢ → 85.5¢

+20% since entry · 29 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

29 of 43 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit86%

G214%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit29 traders

Total Value$107.8K

Total Shares140,061

Combined PnL+$4.7K

G214 traders

Total Value$27.9K

Total Shares159,349

Combined PnL$-18.9K

Spirit — 67%G2 — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpirit 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 80% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	Spiritavg 68¢	$24.1K	$24.9K	+$705.04	56% 385-301 (686)
LO lonmi2511	Spiritavg 68¢	$17.9K	$18.1K	+$139.97	60% 667-444 (1111)
FA fantasy7788CTR	G2avg 32¢	$30.0K	$16.4K	$-13.6K	42% 107-147 (254)
RE redvinny	Spiritavg 85.8¢	$9.7K	$9.4K	-$372.08	17% 27-129 (156)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Spiritavg 83.1¢	$10.1K	$6.4K	+$157.93	62% 87-53 (140)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Spiritavg 77.8¢	$6.0K	$6.1K	+$109.17	56% 3894-3059 (6953)
13 1337zzz1337	Spiritavg 69¢	$5.0K	$6.0K	+$978.26	— 7-0 (7)
RNGUziCTR	G2avg 22.7¢	$7.6K	$5.9K	$-1.7K	2% 4-158 (162)
BR Brz4629ARB<$100	G2avg 32.1¢	$4.9K	$4.3K	-$618.45	73% 16-6 (22)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 32.1¢	$3.0K	$2.2K	-$799.99
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 70¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$181.54
BA Babooou	Spiritavg 68¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$120	— 5-3 (8)
Stone1337	Spiritavg 68¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$29.9	46% 21-25 (46)
RA Rayaya	Spiritavg 70¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$325	— 7-5 (12)
SU SuperMegaManCTR	G2avg 31.6¢	$6.9K	$3.8K	$-3.1K	49% 609-633 (1242)
YI yishiwucheng	Spiritavg 69.1¢	$2.9K	$3.6K	+$683.46	56% 47-37 (84)
RR rrooster	Spiritavg 69¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$40	40% 26-39 (65)
AS asuka7	Spiritavg 69¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$411.38	5% 15-316 (331)
0xheavy888	Spiritavg 69¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$405	54% 270-232 (502)
SU suleng66	Spiritavg 70¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$357.14	11% 6-51 (57)
WE weeeskies	Spiritavg 70¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$0	— 4-7 (11)
0X 0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948	Spiritavg 70¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$117.68	— 11-7 (18)
SU suntori	Spiritavg 71¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$50.9	47% 1521-1691 (3212)
BI BillBenter2026	Spiritavg 75¢	$992.49	$1.1K	+$84.2	25% 175-518 (693)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Spiritavg 79.2¢	$3.5K	$991.43	+$6.17	48% 79-86 (165)
31 319113331313111	Spiritavg 74.2¢	$1.4K	$973.24	+$142.24	57% 102-76 (178)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	G2avg 15.3¢	$655.86	$742.85	+$86.99	51% 2047-1957 (4004)
└ G2 leg	G2avg 15.3¢	$411.33	$469.71	+$58.38
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 73.9¢	$244.53	$273.14	+$28.61

Wiretransferxyz

Spirit

Invested

$24,147.5

Value

$24.9K

PnL

+$705.04

Record

56%

385-301 (686)

lonmi2511

Spirit

Invested

$17,933.81

Value

$18.1K

PnL

+$139.97

Record

60%

667-444 (1111)

fantasy7788CTR

Invested

$30,000

Value

$16.4K

PnL

$-13.6K

Record

42%

107-147 (254)

redvinny

Spirit

Invested

$9,730.04

Value

$9.4K

PnL

-$372.08

Record

17%

27-129 (156)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Spirit

Invested

$10,104.38

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$157.93

Record

62%

87-53 (140)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Spirit

Invested

$5,968.16

Value

$6.1K

PnL

+$109.17

Record

56%

3894-3059 (6953)

1337zzz1337

Spirit

Invested

$5,000

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$978.26

Record

—

7-0 (7)

RNGUziCTR

Invested

$7,607

Value

$5.9K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

4-158 (162)

Brz4629ARB<$100

Invested

$4,940.86

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$618.45

Record

73%

16-6 (22)

Both legs:

G2$2,973.4632.1¢-$799.99

Spirit$1,967.470¢+$181.54

Babooou

Spirit

Invested

$4,080

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$120

Record

—

5-3 (8)

Stone1337

Spirit

Invested

$4,065.99

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$29.9

Record

46%

21-25 (46)

Rayaya

Spirit

Invested

$3,500

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$325

Record

—

7-5 (12)

SuperMegaManCTR

Invested

$6,860.25

Value

$3.8K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

49%

609-633 (1242)

yishiwucheng

Spirit

Invested

$2,896.96

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$683.46

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

rrooster

Spirit

Invested

$2,759.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$40

Record

40%

26-39 (65)

asuka7

Spirit

Invested

$2,102.59

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$411.38

Record

15-316 (331)

0xheavy888

Spirit

Invested

$2,070

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$405

Record

54%

270-232 (502)

suleng66

Spirit

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$357.14

Record

11%

6-51 (57)

weeeskies

Spirit

Invested

$2,349.88

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$0

Record

—

4-7 (11)

0x6683DC5307A8cc191a05d2741D34182A6B05de6b-1763826378948

Spirit

Invested

$1,267.35

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$117.68

Record

—

11-7 (18)

suntori

Spirit

Invested

$1,305.2

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$50.9

Record

47%

1521-1691 (3212)

BillBenter2026

Spirit

Invested

$992.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$84.2

Record

25%

175-518 (693)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Spirit

Invested

$3,450.51

Value

$991.43

PnL

+$6.17

Record

48%

79-86 (165)

319113331313111

Spirit

Invested

$1,431.08

Value

$973.24

PnL

+$142.24

Record

57%

102-76 (178)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Invested

$655.86

Value

$742.85

PnL

+$86.99

Record

51%

2047-1957 (4004)

Both legs:

G2$411.3315.3¢+$58.38

Spirit$244.5373.9¢+$28.61

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 86%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

29 of 43 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed14 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperSpirit 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSpirit 78% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Spirit 80% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.