Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

11 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 94¢ · $18K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$424.19

Smart Money Entry

70.6¢ → 93.5¢

+33% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$17.0K

Total Shares18,286

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Yes9 traders

Total Value$881.36

Total Shares12,591

Combined PnL$-3.2K

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
scottilicious	Noavg 66¢	$4.7K	$6.6K	+$1.9K	82% 945-201 (1146)
elmcap2	Noavg 84.6¢	$4.1K	$4.5K	+$426.36	89% 1665-205 (1870)
studmuffin6969	Noavg 73.3¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$390.18	59% 1027-717 (1744)
FO Folletin	Noavg 59.8¢	$1.4K	$2.2K	+$773.42	69% 423-188 (611)
Car	Noavg 51.9¢	$897.14	$930.01	+$32.87	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
Roflan-ludomanCTR	Yesavg 44.7¢	$2.0K	$338.63	$-1.6K	62% 649-396 (1045)
Barkshire-HathawayCTR	Yesavg 13¢	$416.01	$223.51	-$192.49	64% 1093-623 (1716)
LI lissartter	Noavg 59¢	$82.18	$133.21	+$51.03	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
TH thoodr<$100	Noavg 91¢	$91	$93	+$2	96% 631-24 (655)
Ryxon21CTR	Yesavg 60.1¢	$772.04	$88.54	-$683.5	71% 318-130 (448)
probabilityCTR	Yesavg 43¢	$302.9	$49.31	-$253.59	42% 1368-1924 (3292)
ScottyNoooCTR	Yesavg 36.5¢	$196.35	$46.29	-$150.07	50% 1537-1513 (3050)
LO Logan.CTR	Yesavg 18.6¢	$120.83	$46.2	-$74.63	41% 648-925 (1573)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$66.42	$41.72	-$109.8	52% 2050-1868 (3918)
ME melganis<$100	Noavg 79¢	$31.6	$37.2	+$5.6	75% 1597-541 (2138)
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$116.53	$28	-$88.53	66% 955-482 (1437)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$21.89	$19.15	-$2.74	83% 3802-802 (4604)
tetrase<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18	$18.6	+$0.7	61% 839-544 (1383)
StupidMonkeyyy<$100	Noavg 85¢	$13.59	$14.87	+$1.28	50% 147-145 (292)
PA pako<$100	Noavg 81¢	$4.05	$4.65	+$0.6	65% 250-132 (382)

scottilicious

Invested

$4,700.6

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

82%

945-201 (1146)

elmcap2

Invested

$4,056.82

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$426.36

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

studmuffin6969

Invested

$2,139.72

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$390.18

Record

59%

1027-717 (1744)

Folletin

Invested

$1,385.74

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$773.42

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

Car

Invested

$897.14

Value

$930.01

PnL

+$32.87

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Roflan-ludomanCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,969.16

Value

$338.63

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

62%

649-396 (1045)

Barkshire-HathawayCTR

Yes

Invested

$416.01

Value

$223.51

PnL

-$192.49

Record

64%

1093-623 (1716)

lissartter

Invested

$82.18

Value

$133.21

PnL

+$51.03

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

thoodr<$100

Invested

$91

Value

$93

PnL

+$2

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

Ryxon21CTR

Yes

Invested

$772.04

Value

$88.54

PnL

-$683.5

Record

71%

318-130 (448)

probabilityCTR

Yes

Invested

$302.9

Value

$49.31

PnL

-$253.59

Record

42%

1368-1924 (3292)

ScottyNoooCTR

Yes

Invested

$196.35

Value

$46.29

PnL

-$150.07

Record

50%

1537-1513 (3050)

Logan.CTR

Yes

Invested

$120.83

Value

$46.2

PnL

-$74.63

Record

41%

648-925 (1573)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$66.42

Value

$41.72

PnL

-$109.8

Record

52%

2050-1868 (3918)

melganis<$100

Invested

$31.6

Value

$37.2

PnL

+$5.6

Record

75%

1597-541 (2138)

PutsOnPeaceCTR

Yes

Invested

$116.53

Value

$28

PnL

-$88.53

Record

66%

955-482 (1437)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.89

Value

$19.15

PnL

-$2.74

Record

83%

3802-802 (4604)

tetrase<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$18.6

PnL

+$0.7

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

StupidMonkeyyy<$100

Invested

$13.59

Value

$14.87

PnL

+$1.28

Record

50%

147-145 (292)

pako<$100

Invested

$4.05

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0.6

Record

65%

250-132 (382)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 20 top traders (55%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

55% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 9

Aligned

sharpNo 75% · 8

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 53% · 15

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.